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Move orders in contests: Equilibria and winning chances

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  • Gao, Lei
  • Lu, Jingfeng
  • Wang, Zhewei

Abstract

This paper studies general two-player sequential-move competitions, accommodating a full spectrum of Tullock contest technology and contestants' asymmetry. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for a preemptive equilibrium to prevail in both strong-lead and weak-lead contests, and discover a characteristic equation to pin down the players' effort ratio (which fully determines their winning chances) and their effort levels when a non-preemptive equilibrium prevails. We find that while the strong player always has a higher winning chance when moving first, simultaneous moves sometimes maximize the weak player's winning odds. We further allow the move orders endogenous through winning-odd-maximizing coaches' independent choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Gao, Lei & Lu, Jingfeng & Wang, Zhewei, 2025. "Move orders in contests: Equilibria and winning chances," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 436-468.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:gamebe:v:150:y:2025:i:c:p:436-468
    DOI: 10.1016/j.geb.2025.02.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tullock contests; Simultaneous contests; Strong-lead/weak-lead sequential contests; Non-preemptive equilibria; Preemptive equilibria; Winning chances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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