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Overselling winners and losers: How mutual fund managers' trading behavior affects asset prices

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  • An, Li
  • Argyle, Bronson

Abstract

We link a seemingly biased trading behavior to equilibrium asset prices. U.S. equity mutual fund managers tend to sell both their big winners and big losers. This selling pressure pushes down current prices and leads to higher future returns; aggregating across funds, we find that securities for which investors have large unrealized gains and losses outperform in the subsequent month. Funds with larger turnover, shorter holding period, and higher expense ratios, are significantly more likely to manifest this trading pattern, and unrealized profits from such funds have stronger return predictability. This cross-sectional return predictability is difficult to reconcile with alternative explanations.

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  • An, Li & Argyle, Bronson, 2021. "Overselling winners and losers: How mutual fund managers' trading behavior affects asset prices," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finmar:v:55:y:2021:i:c:s1386418120300495
    DOI: 10.1016/j.finmar.2020.100580
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    3. Jun Yuan & Qi Xu & Ying Wang, 2023. "Probability weighting in commodity futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(4), pages 516-548, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual funds; Disposition effect; Price pressure; Cross-sectional return predictability;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G40 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - General

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