IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/rqfnac/v50y2018i3d10.1007_s11156-017-0648-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Disposition effect and analyst forecast dispersion

Author

Listed:
  • Daniela Vesselinova Balkanska

    (San Francisco State University)

Abstract

Behavioral finance theories posit that behavioral biases are more pronounced when there is higher information uncertainty about fundamentals. This paper examines the relation between the disposition effect, the tendency to ride losses and realize gains, and dispersion in financial analysts’ earnings forecasts for a sample of large U.S. discount brokerage accounts from January 1991 to December 1996. I find that the disposition effect is exacerbated in stocks with higher analyst forecast dispersion. In particular, the disposition effect is 10% in stocks in the highest forecast dispersion quintile and not significant in the lowest forecast dispersion quintile. The driving factor behind these findings is investors’ higher propensity to realize gains when facing higher information uncertainty. The results are robust to controlling for firm size, analyst coverage, idiosyncratic volatility, turnover, and past market-adjusted returns. The results provide supportive evidence for a behavioral bias explanation of the disposition effect consistent with mean-reversion beliefs for winners and loss actualization avoidance for losers.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniela Vesselinova Balkanska, 2018. "Disposition effect and analyst forecast dispersion," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 837-859, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0648-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11156-017-0648-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11156-017-0648-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11156-017-0648-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harrison Hong & Terence Lim & Jeremy C. Stein, 2000. "Bad News Travels Slowly: Size, Analyst Coverage, and the Profitability of Momentum Strategies," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(1), pages 265-295, February.
    2. X. Frank Zhang, 2006. "Information Uncertainty and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 105-137, February.
    3. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2005. "Do Behavioral Biases Affect Prices?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 1-34, February.
    4. Ron Kaniel & Gideon Saar & Sheridan Titman, 2008. "Individual Investor Trading and Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(1), pages 273-310, February.
    5. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. "Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
    6. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    7. Lei Feng & Mark Seasholes, 2005. "Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?," Review of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 305-351, September.
    8. Kaustia, Markku, 2010. "Prospect Theory and the Disposition Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(3), pages 791-812, June.
    9. Zuchel, Heiko, 2001. "What Drives the Disposition Effect?," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 01-39, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    10. Chen, Joseph & Hong, Harrison & Stein, Jeremy C., 2002. "Breadth of ownership and stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2-3), pages 171-205.
    11. Andrea Frazzini, 2006. "The Disposition Effect and Underreaction to News," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(4), pages 2017-2046, August.
    12. Mark Grinblatt & Matti Keloharju, 2001. "What Makes Investors Trade?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(2), pages 589-616, April.
    13. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2000. "Trading Is Hazardous to Your Wealth: The Common Stock Investment Performance of Individual Investors," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(2), pages 773-806, April.
    14. Grinblatt, Mark & Han, Bing, 2005. "Prospect theory, mental accounting, and momentum," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(2), pages 311-339, November.
    15. Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
    16. Lei Feng & Mark S. Seasholes, 2005. "Do Investor Sophistication and Trading Experience Eliminate Behavioral Biases in Financial Markets?," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 9(3), pages 305-351.
    17. Weber, Martin & Camerer, Colin F., 1998. "The disposition effect in securities trading: an experimental analysis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 167-184, January.
    18. Mao-Wei Hung & Hsiao-Yuan Yu, 2006. "A heterogeneous model of disposition effect," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(18), pages 2147-2157.
    19. Talpsepp, Tõnn & Vlcek, Martin & Wang, Mei, 2014. "Speculating in gains, waiting in losses: A closer look at the disposition effect," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(C), pages 31-43.
    20. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 1999. "A Unified Theory of Underreaction, Momentum Trading, and Overreaction in Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(6), pages 2143-2184, December.
    21. Locke, Peter R. & Mann, Steven C., 2005. "Professional trader discipline and trade disposition," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 401-444, May.
    22. Choe, Hyuk & Kho, Bong-Chan & Stulz, Rene M., 1999. "Do foreign investors destabilize stock markets? The Korean experience in 1997," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 227-264, October.
    23. Francisco J. Gomes, 2005. "Portfolio Choice and Trading Volume with Loss-Averse Investors," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(2), pages 675-706, March.
    24. Qin Wang & Jun Zhang, 2015. "Individual investor trading and stock liquidity," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 485-508, October.
    25. Ravi Dhar & Ning Zhu, 2006. "Up Close and Personal: Investor Sophistication and the Disposition Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 726-740, May.
    26. Shefrin, Hersh & Statman, Meir, 1985. "The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 777-790, July.
    27. Timothy C. Johnson, 2004. "Forecast Dispersion and the Cross Section of Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(5), pages 1957-1978, October.
    28. Jeffrey Hobbs & Hei Wai Lee & Vivek Singh, 2017. "New evidence on the effect of belief heterogeneity on stock returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 289-309, February.
    29. Zuchel, Heiko, 2001. "What drives the disposition effect?," Papers 01-39, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    30. Kumar, Alok, 2009. "Hard-to-Value Stocks, Behavioral Biases, and Informed Trading," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(6), pages 1375-1401, December.
    31. Makarov, Igor & Rytchkov, Oleg, 2012. "Forecasting the forecasts of others: Implications for asset pricing," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 147(3), pages 941-966.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten, 2017. "On the applicability of maximum likelihood methods: From experimental to financial data," SAFE Working Paper Series 148, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    2. Li, Yan & Yang, Liyan, 2013. "Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 715-739.
    3. Sarmiento, Julio & Rendón, Jairo & Sandoval, Juan S. & Cayon, Edgardo, 2019. "The disposition effect and the relevance of the reference period: Evidence among sophisticated investors," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C).
    4. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2019. "Taming models of prospect theory in the wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    5. Bernard, Sabine & Loos, Benjamin & Weber, Martin, 2021. "The disposition effect in boom and bust markets," SAFE Working Paper Series 305, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    6. Dierick, Nicolas & Heyman, Dries & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Stieperaere, Hannes, 2019. "Financial attention and the disposition effect," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 190-217.
    7. Choi, Darwin, 2019. "Disposition sales and stock market liquidity," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 19-36.
    8. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1533-1570, Elsevier.
    9. Massimo Massa & Bastian von Beschwitz, 2015. "Biased Shorts: Short sellers’ Disposition Effect and Limits to Arbitrage," International Finance Discussion Papers 1147, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. von Beschwitz, Bastian & Massa, Massimo, 2020. "Biased short: Short sellers' disposition effect and limits to arbitrage," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    11. Deaves, Richard & Kluger, Brian & Miele, Jennifer, 2018. "An exploratory experimental analysis of path-dependent investment behaviors," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 47-65.
    12. Frydman, Cary & Rangel, Antonio, 2014. "Debiasing the disposition effect by reducing the saliency of information about a stock's purchase price," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 541-552.
    13. Massa, Massimo & von Beschwitz, Bastian, 2015. "Biased Shorts: Stock Market Implications of Short Sellers’ Disposition Effect," CEPR Discussion Papers 10535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Ben-David, Itzhak & Hirshleifer, David, 2011. "Beyond the Disposition Effect: Do Investors Really Like Gains More Than Losses?," Working Paper Series 2011-13, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    15. Marco Pleßner, 2017. "The disposition effect: a survey," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 1-30, February.
    16. Eom, Yunsung, 2018. "The opposite disposition effect: Evidence from the Korean stock index futures market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 261-265.
    17. Andreu, Laura & Ortiz, Cristina & Sarto, José Luis, 2020. "Disposition effect in fund managers. Fund and stock-specific factors and the upshot for investors," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 253-268.
    18. Barberis, Nicholas & Xiong, Wei, 2012. "Realization utility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 251-271.
    19. Adam Zaremba & Jacob Koby Shemer, 2018. "Price-Based Investment Strategies," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-319-91530-2, December.
    20. Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Lawrence J. Jin, 2014. "Realization Utility with Reference-Dependent Preferences," Papers 1408.2859, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Disposition effect; Analyst forecast dispersion; Individual investors; Behavioral finance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kap:rqfnac:v:50:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11156-017-0648-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.