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Prospect Theory and the Disposition Effect

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  • Kaustia, Markku

Abstract

This paper shows that prospect theory is unlikely to explain the disposition effect. Prospect theory predicts that the propensity to sell a stock declines as its price moves away from the purchase price in either direction. Trading data, on the other hand, show that the propensity to sell jumps at zero return, but it is approximately constant over a wide range of losses and increasing or constant over a wide range of gains. Further, the pattern of realized returns does not seem to stem from optimal after-tax portfolio rebalancing, a belief in mean-reverting returns, or investors acting on target prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaustia, Markku, 2010. "Prospect Theory and the Disposition Effect," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(03), pages 791-812, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:45:y:2010:i:03:p:791-812_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Shoji, Isao & Kanehiro, Sumei, 2016. "Disposition effect as a behavioral trading activity elicited by investors' different risk preferences," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 104-112.
    2. Barberis, Nicholas & Xiong, Wei, 2012. "Realization utility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 251-271.
    3. Yao, Jing & Li, Duan, 2013. "Prospect theory and trading patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2793-2805.
    4. Duxbury, Darren & Hudson, Robert & Keasey, Kevin & Yang, Zhishu & Yao, Songyao, 2015. "Do the disposition and house money effects coexist? A reconciliation of two behavioral biases using individual investor-level data," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 55-68.
    5. Young Doo Kim & Young-Won Ha, 2016. "Who is afraid of disposition of financial assets? The moderating role of regulatory focus in the disposition effect," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 159-169, March.
    6. Kohsaka Youki & Grzegorz Mardyla & Shinji Takenaka & Yoshiro Tsutsui, 2013. "Disposition Effect and Diminishing Sensitivity: An Analysis Based on a Simulated Experimental Stock Market," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-02-Rev.2, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP), revised Sep 2014.
    7. Dorow, Anderson & Da Costa Jr, Newton & Takase, Emilio & Prates, Wlademir & Da Silva, Sergio, 2017. "On the neural substrates of the disposition effect and return performance," MPRA Paper 83354, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten & Meyer, Steffen & Hackethal, Andreas, 2016. "Taming models of prospect theory in the Wild? Estimation of Vlcek and Hens (2011)," SAFE Working Paper Series 146, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    9. Jakusch, Sven Thorsten, 2016. "On the applicability of maximum likelihood methods: From experimental to financial data," SAFE Working Paper Series 148, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    10. Kohsaka Youki & Grzegorz Mardyla & Shinji Takenaka & Yoshiro Tsutsui, 2013. "Disposition Effect and Loss Aversion: An Analysis Based on a Simulated Experimental Stock Market," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 13-02, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics and Osaka School of International Public Policy (OSIPP).
    11. Ormos, Mihály & Joó, István, 2014. "Are Hungarian investors reluctant to realize their losses?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 52-58.
    12. Urs Fischbacher & Gerson Hoffmann & Simeon Schudy, 2017. "The Causal Effect of Stop-Loss and Take-Gain Orders on the Disposition Effect," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 2110-2129.
    13. Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Lawrence J. Jin, 2014. "Realization Utility with Reference-Dependent Preferences," Papers 1408.2859, arXiv.org.
    14. Matteo Ploner, 2017. "Hold on to it? An experimental analysis of the disposition effect," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(2), pages 118-127, March.
    15. Huang, Yu Chuan & Chan, Shu Hui, 2014. "The house money and break-even effects for different types of traders: Evidence from Taiwan futures markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-13.
    16. Lei, Xiaoyan & Zhou, Yuegang & Zhu, Xiaoneng, 2014. "Capital gains and trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 167-183.
    17. Richard Borghesi, 2014. "The impact of the disposition effect on asset prices: insight from the NBA," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 38(4), pages 698-711, October.
    18. Summers, Barbara & Duxbury, Darren, 2012. "Decision-dependent emotions and behavioral anomalies," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 118(2), pages 226-238.
    19. Vicky Henderson, 2012. "Prospect Theory, Liquidation, and the Disposition Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 445-460, February.
    20. Cary Frydman & Nicholas Barberis & Colin Camerer & Peter Bossaerts & Antonio Rangel, 2012. "Using Neural Data to Test a Theory of Investor Behavior: An Application to Realization Utility," NBER Working Papers 18562, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Barber, Brad M. & Odean, Terrance, 2013. "The Behavior of Individual Investors," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
    22. Li, Yan & Yang, Liyan, 2013. "Prospect theory, the disposition effect, and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 715-739.
    23. Hanspal, Tobin, 2016. "The effect of personal financing disruptions on entrepreneurship," SAFE Working Paper Series 161, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
    24. Fu, Richard & Wedge, Lei, 2011. "Managerial ownership and the disposition effect," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 2407-2417, September.
    25. Frydman, Cary & Rangel, Antonio, 2014. "Debiasing the disposition effect by reducing the saliency of information about a stock's purchase price," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 107(PB), pages 541-552.

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