IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v85y2025ipds1544612325014059.html

Selective futures hedging in the Nordic electricity market

Author

Listed:
  • Furió, Dolores
  • Torró, Hipòlit

Abstract

Electricity futures price can be split into the expected spot price on the maturity date and a risk premium. This risk premium is shown to contain a seasonal behaviour with futures price above (below) expected spot price in winter (summer). Therefore, as futures returns can be partially predicted, the minimum variance hedging approach is not optimal anymore, but for agents with very high degree of risk aversion. We propose a selective hedging strategy based on futures bias forecasts that modifies the pure hedging position with a speculative part depending on the expected futures return and the degree of risk aversion. Using monthly futures contracts from the Nord Pool, we find that the best performing short hedging strategies for moderate or high-risk adverse agents are those with hedge ratios above (below) the minimum variance hedge ratio in the winter (summer) season and the reverse for long hedging strategies.

Suggested Citation

  • Furió, Dolores & Torró, Hipòlit, 2025. "Selective futures hedging in the Nordic electricity market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(PD).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pd:s1544612325014059
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.108150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612325014059
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2025.108150?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Szilagyi, Peter G. & Wagner, Niklas F., 2021. "Hedging stocks with oil," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    2. Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2010. "Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, December.
    3. Jim Hanly & Lucia Morales & Damien Cassells, 2018. "The efficacy of financial futures as a hedging tool in electricity markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 29-40, January.
    4. Adam, Tim R. & Fernando, Chitru S. & Salas, Jesus M., 2017. "Why do firms engage in selective hedging? Evidence from the gold mining industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 269-282.
    5. Donald Lien & Y. K. Tse, 2002. "Some Recent Developments in Futures Hedging," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(3), pages 357-396, July.
    6. H. N. E. BystrOm, 2003. "The hedging performance of electricity futures on the Nordic power exchange," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 1-11.
    7. Zanotti, Giovanna & Gabbi, Giampaolo & Geranio, Manuela, 2010. "Hedging with futures: Efficacy of GARCH correlation models to European electricity markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 135-148, April.
    8. Gregory W. Brown & Peter R. Crabb & David Haushalter, 2006. "Are Firms Successful at Selective Hedging?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(6), pages 2925-2950, November.
    9. repec:bla:jecsur:v:16:y:2002:i:3:p:357-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Sultan, Jahangir, 1993. "Time-Varying Distributions and Dynamic Hedging with Foreign Currency Futures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(4), pages 535-551, December.
    11. Anderson, Ronald W & Danthine, Jean-Pierre, 1980. "Hedging and Joint Production: Theory and Illustrations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 487-498, May.
    12. Størdal, Ståle & Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Lien, Gudbrand & Haugom, Erik, 2023. "Trading time seasonality in electricity futures," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    13. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:4:p:1877-1900 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2010. "Time-varying risk aversion: An application to energy hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 432-441, March.
    15. Moulton, Jonathan S., 2005. "California electricity futures: the NYMEX experience," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 181-194, January.
    16. Hendrik Bessembinder & Michael L. Lemmon, 2002. "Equilibrium Pricing and Optimal Hedging in Electricity Forward Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(3), pages 1347-1382, June.
    17. Adam, Tim R. & Fernando, Chitru S., 2006. "Hedging, speculation, and shareholder value," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 283-309, August.
    18. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagen, Liv Aune & Nygård, Maria Tandberg & Smith-Sivertsen, Ragnhild & Sollie, Johan M., 2015. "The overnight risk premium in electricity forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 293-300.
    19. Levy, H & Markowtiz, H M, 1979. "Approximating Expected Utility by a Function of Mean and Variance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(3), pages 308-317, June.
    20. Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2015. "Commodity Futures Prices: Some Evidence on Forecast Power, Premiums, and the Theory of Storage," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Anastasios G Malliaris & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE WORLD SCIENTIFIC HANDBOOK OF FUTURES MARKETS, chapter 4, pages 79-102, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    21. Cotter, John & Hanly, Jim, 2012. "A utility based approach to energy hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 817-827.
    22. Ewald, Christian-Oliver & Haugom, Erik & Lien, Gudbrand & Størdal, Ståle & Wu, Yuexiang, 2022. "Trading time seasonality in commodity futures: An opportunity for arbitrage in the natural gas and crude oil markets?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    23. René M. Stulz, 1996. "Rethinking Risk Management," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 9(3), pages 8-25, September.
    24. Louis Gagnon & Greg Lypny, 1995. "Hedging short‐term interest risk under time‐varying distributions," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(7), pages 767-783, October.
    25. Lucia, Julio J. & Torró, Hipòlit, 2011. "On the risk premium in Nordic electricity futures prices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 750-763, October.
    26. Ederington, Louis H. & Salas, Jesus M., 2008. "Minimum variance hedging when spot price changes are partially predictable," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 654-663, May.
    27. Benth, Fred Espen & Cartea, Álvaro & Kiesel, Rüdiger, 2008. "Pricing forward contracts in power markets by the certainty equivalence principle: Explaining the sign of the market risk premium," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(10), pages 2006-2021, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Furió, Dolores & Torró, Hipòlit, 2020. "Optimal hedging under biased energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    2. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2015. "European natural gas seasonal effects on futures hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 154-168.
    3. Cao, Min & Conlon, Thomas, 2023. "Composite jet fuel cross-hedging," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 30(C).
    4. Martínez, Beatriz & Torró, Hipòlit, 2018. "Hedging spark spread risk with futures," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 731-746.
    5. Zhang, Yue & Farnoosh, Arash, 2019. "Analyzing the dynamic impact of electricity futures on revenue and risk of renewable energy in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 678-690.
    6. Thomas Conlon & John Cotter & Ramazan Gençay, 2016. "Commodity futures hedging, risk aversion and the hedging horizon," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(15), pages 1534-1560, December.
    7. Zhang Yue & Arash Farnoosh, 2018. "Analysing the Dynamic Impact of Electricity Futures on Revenue and Risks of Renewable Energy in China," Working Papers hal-03188814, HAL.
    8. Hipòlit Torró, . "Assessing the influence of spot price predictability on electricity futures hedging," Journal of Risk, Journal of Risk.
    9. Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Ana-Maria Fuertes & Joëlle Miffre, 2026. "Does Speculation in Futures Markets Improve Commodity Hedging Decisions?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 72(3), pages 2525-2544, March.
    10. Mara Madaleno & Carlos Pinho, 2010. "Hedging Performance and Multiscale Relationships in the German Electricity Spot and Futures Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, December.
    11. Dionne, Georges & El Hraiki, Rayane & Mnasri, Mohamed, 2023. "Determinants and real effects of joint hedging: An empirical analysis of US oil and gas producers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Wei Shi & Scott H. Irwin, 2005. "Optimal Hedging with a Subjective View: An Empirical Bayesian Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 87(4), pages 918-930.
    13. repec:aen:journl:ej36-3-daskalakis is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Håkan Jankensgård, 2019. "Does Managerial Power Increase Selective Hedging? Evidence from the Oil and Gas Industry," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-18, April.
    15. Shrestha, Keshab & Subramaniam, Ravichandran & Rassiah, Puspavathy, 2017. "Pure martingale and joint normality tests for energy futures contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 174-184.
    16. Olaf Korn & Alexander Merz, 2019. "How to hedge if the payment date is uncertain?," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(4), pages 481-498, April.
    17. Fleten, Stein-Erik & Hagen, Liv Aune & Nygård, Maria Tandberg & Smith-Sivertsen, Ragnhild & Sollie, Johan M., 2015. "The overnight risk premium in electricity forward contracts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 293-300.
    18. Sanda, Gaute Egeland & Olsen, Eirik Tandberg & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2013. "Selective hedging in hydro-based electricity companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 326-338.
    19. Panos K. Pouliasis & Ilias D. Visvikis & Nikos C. Papapostolou & Alexander A. Kryukov, 2020. "A novel risk management framework for natural gas markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(3), pages 430-459, March.
    20. Liu Hong & Yongjia Li & Kangzhen Xie & Claire J. Yan, 2020. "On the Market Timing of Hedging: Evidence from U.S. Oil and Gas Producers," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 54(1), pages 297-334, January.
    21. Vedenov, Dmitry & Power, Gabriel J., 2022. "We don't need no fancy hedges! Or do we?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:85:y:2025:i:pd:s1544612325014059. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.