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From headlines to pipelines: Unpacking the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict through sentiment and topics

Author

Listed:
  • Biktimirov, Ernest N.
  • Babalola, Moyosore J.

Abstract

This study examines the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict on oil markets by analyzing the sentiment and intensity of Russia-related discussions in business media. Using topic modeling, we identify 12 distinct topics of articles published in The Wall Street Journal during the 2014–2024 period and compute their sentiment and hype scores. The sentiment and hype of these topics exhibit varying relations with oil returns under different market conditions. Notably, the Global Economy and Oil topics show the strongest positive association with oil returns in both sentiment and hype, particularly during bullish oil markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Biktimirov, Ernest N. & Babalola, Moyosore J., 2025. "From headlines to pipelines: Unpacking the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict through sentiment and topics," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:78:y:2025:i:c:s154461232500399x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2025.107136
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Geopolitics; Russia-Ukraine conflict; Oil price; Media sentiment; Topic modeling; Textual analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets
    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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