IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v75y2025ics154461232401715x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A look across the big pond and into the abyss — Performance of earnout deals in Europe and in times of crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Dahlen, Niklas
  • Dittmann, Yannik
  • Schreiter, Maximilian

Abstract

Earnout deals are expected to protect acquirers from overpayment as information asymmetries are reduced and the final purchase price is partly based on the future performance of the target. Various scholars have investigated the perception of earnout deals by capital markets revealing significant abnormal returns. Those studies are focused mostly on the Anglo-Saxon countries and China leveraging a pre-COVID datasets. Hence, this study aims at investigating capital market reaction to earnout deals in Continental Europe covering the timeline of 2012 to 2022. Our results indicate that earnout deals in Continental Europe outperform non-earnout deals and are especially beneficial in times of high uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Dahlen, Niklas & Dittmann, Yannik & Schreiter, Maximilian, 2025. "A look across the big pond and into the abyss — Performance of earnout deals in Europe and in times of crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:75:y:2025:i:c:s154461232401715x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2024.106686
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S154461232401715X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2024.106686?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. G. Alexandridis & D. Petmezas & N.G. Travlos, 2010. "Gains from Mergers and Acquisitions Around the World: New Evidence," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 39(4), pages 1671-1695, December.
    2. Faccio, Mara & McConnell, John J. & Stolin, David, 2006. "Returns to Acquirers of Listed and Unlisted Targets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(1), pages 197-220, March.
    3. Bonaime, Alice & Gulen, Huseyin & Ion, Mihai, 2018. "Does policy uncertainty affect mergers and acquisitions?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(3), pages 531-558.
    4. Leonidas G Barbopoulos & Jo Danbolt & Dimitris Alexakis, 2018. "The role of earnout financing on the valuation effects of global diversification," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(5), pages 523-551, July.
    5. Mark Humphery-Jenner & Zacharias Sautner & Jo-Ann Suchard, 2017. "Cross-border mergers and acquisitions: The role of private equity firms," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(8), pages 1688-1700, August.
    6. Jensen, Michael C. & Ruback, Richard S., 1983. "The market for corporate control : The scientific evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 5-50, April.
    7. Dimitris Alexakis & Leonidas G. Barbopoulos, 2020. "Incentive‐compatible contracts in merger negotiations: The role of acquirer idiosyncratic stock return volatility," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(1), pages 3-40, February.
    8. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    9. Franks, Julian R. & Harris, Robert S., 1989. "Shareholder wealth effects of corporate takeovers : The U.K. experience 1955-1985," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 225-249, August.
    10. Magnanelli, Barbara Sveva & Nasta, Luigi & Ramazio, Emanuele, 2022. "Bid premiums and cumulative abnormal returns: An empirical investigation on the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    11. Mathieu Luypaert & Tom Caneghem, 2017. "Exploring the Double-Sided Effect of Information Asymmetry and Uncertainty in Mergers and Acquisitions," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 46(4), pages 873-917, December.
    12. Leonidas G. Barbopoulos & Krishna Paudyal & Sudi Sudarsanam, 2018. "Earnout deals: Method of initial payment and acquirers’ gains," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(5), pages 792-828, November.
    13. Barbopoulos, Leonidas & Sudarsanam, Sudi, 2012. "Determinants of earnout as acquisition payment currency and bidder’s value gains," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 678-694.
    14. Leonidas G. Barbopoulos & Jo Danbolt, 2021. "The real effects of earnout contracts in M&As," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 607-639, September.
    15. Danbolt, Jo & Siganos, Antonios & Vagenas-Nanos, Evangelos, 2015. "Investor sentiment and bidder announcement abnormal returns," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 164-179.
    16. Fassas, Athanasios P. & Siriopoulos, Costas, 2021. "Implied volatility indices – A review," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 303-329.
    17. Rajeev H. Dehejia & Sadek Wahba, 2002. "Propensity Score-Matching Methods For Nonexperimental Causal Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 151-161, February.
    18. E. Lukas & C. Heimann, 2014. "Technological-induced information asymmetry, M&As and earnouts: stock market evidence from Germany," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(7), pages 481-493, April.
    19. Dharmapala, Dhammika & Hines Jr., James R., 2009. "Which countries become tax havens?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(9-10), pages 1058-1068, October.
    20. Mateev, Miroslav, 2017. "Is the M&A announcement effect different across Europe? More evidences from continental Europe and the UK," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 190-216.
    21. Yılmaz, Işıl Sevilay & Tanyeri, Başak, 2016. "Global Merger and Acquisition (M&A) activity: 1992–2011," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 110-117.
    22. Datar, Srikant & Frankel, Richard & Wolfson, Mark, 2001. "Earnouts: The Effects of Adverse Selection and Agency Costs on Acquisition Techniques," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 17(1), pages 201-238, April.
    23. Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Adra, Samer, 2016. "The earnout structure matters: Takeover premia and acquirer gains in earnout financed M&As," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 283-294.
    24. Gary Tobin & Keith Walsh, 2013. "What Makes a Country a Tax Haven? An Assessment of International Standards Shows Why Ireland Is Not a Tax Haven," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 44(3), pages 401-424.
    25. Beltratti, Andrea & Paladino, Giovanna, 2013. "Is M&A different during a crisis? Evidence from the European banking sector," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5394-5405.
    26. Brown, Stephen J. & Warner, Jerold B., 1980. "Measuring security price performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 205-258, September.
    27. Kathleen Fuller & Jeffry Netter & Mike Stegemoller, 2002. "What Do Returns to Acquiring Firms Tell Us? Evidence from Firms That Make Many Acquisitions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1763-1793, August.
    28. Betton, Sandra & El Meslmani, Nabil & Switzer, Lorne N., 2022. "Volatility of implied volatility and mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    29. Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2016. "Earnout financing in the financial services industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 119-132.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leonidas G. Barbopoulos & Jo Danbolt, 2021. "The real effects of earnout contracts in M&As," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 607-639, September.
    2. Adra, Samer & Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Saunders, Anthony, 2020. "The impact of monetary policy on M&A outcomes," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    3. Gada, Viswa Prasad & Goyal, Lakshmi & Popli, Manish, 2021. "Earnouts in M&A deal structuring: The impact of CEO prevention focus," Journal of International Management, Elsevier, vol. 27(1).
    4. Kanungo, Rama Prasad, 2021. "Uncertainty of M&As under asymmetric estimation," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 774-793.
    5. Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Adra, Samer & Saunders, Anthony, 2020. "Macroeconomic news and acquirer returns in M&As: The impact of investor alertness," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    6. Dimitris Alexakis & Leonidas G. Barbopoulos, 2020. "Incentive‐compatible contracts in merger negotiations: The role of acquirer idiosyncratic stock return volatility," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 29(1), pages 3-40, February.
    7. Dahlen, Niklas & Lahmann, Alexander & Schreiter, Maximilian, 2024. "Panacea for M&A dealmaking? Investor perceptions of earnouts," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Monaco, Eleonora & Ibikunle, Gbenga & Palumbo, Riccardo & Zhang, Zeyu, 2022. "The liquidity and trading activity effects of acquisition payment methods: Evidence from the announcements of private firms' acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    9. Gemson, Josephine, 2021. "Private company acquisitions in the market for corporate control: A comparison between private equity and corporate acquirers," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 342-357.
    10. Leonidas G Barbopoulos & Jo Danbolt & Dimitris Alexakis, 2018. "The role of earnout financing on the valuation effects of global diversification," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 49(5), pages 523-551, July.
    11. Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Adra, Samer, 2016. "The earnout structure matters: Takeover premia and acquirer gains in earnout financed M&As," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 283-294.
    12. Shams, Syed M.M. & Gunasekarage, Abeyratna & Colombage, Sisira R.N., 2013. "Does the organisational form of the target influence market reaction to acquisition announcements? Australian evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 89-108.
    13. Tunyi, Abongeh A., 2021. "Revisiting acquirer returns: Evidence from unanticipated deals," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    14. Andrey Golubov & Dimitris Petmezas & Nickolaos G. Travlos, 2013. "Empirical mergers and acquisitions research: a review of methods, evidence and managerial implications," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 12, pages 287-313, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    15. Leonidas G. Barbopoulos & Krishna Paudyal & Sudi Sudarsanam, 2018. "Earnout deals: Method of initial payment and acquirers’ gains," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(5), pages 792-828, November.
    16. Barbopoulos, Leonidas G. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2016. "Earnout financing in the financial services industry," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 119-132.
    17. Ferguson, Andrew & Hu, Wei & Lam, Peter, 2022. "Political uncertainty and deal structure: Evidence from Australian mining project acquisitions," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    18. Li, Lin & Tong, Wilson H.S., 2018. "Information uncertainty and target valuation in mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 84-107.
    19. Yun Meng & Ninon K. Sutton, 2017. "Is the grass on the other side greener? Testing the cross-border effect for U.S. acquirers," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 48(4), pages 917-937, May.
    20. Robert W. Faff & Abeyratna Gunasekarage & Syed M. M. Shams, 2020. "Does takeover competition affect acquisition choices and bidding firm performance? Australian evidence," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 60(4), pages 3581-3619, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:75:y:2025:i:c:s154461232401715x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.