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Gold, bonds, and epidemics: A safe haven study

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  • Choudhury, Tonmoy
  • Kinateder, Harald
  • Neupane, Biwesh

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic raised the question whether gold and sovereign bonds are a safe haven during epidemics. We study the effectiveness as safe haven during the epidemics caused by SARS, Ebola, Zika, Swine Flu, and COVID-19. To this end, this study employs a DCC-GARCH model to analyze the conditional correlations between daily returns of S&P 500 and MSCI Emerging Markets Index with gold and the major sovereign bonds. Our results show that gold is a weak safe haven for stock market investors during the epidemics, and U.S. treasuries are the safest option, followed by Japanese sovereign bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Choudhury, Tonmoy & Kinateder, Harald & Neupane, Biwesh, 2022. "Gold, bonds, and epidemics: A safe haven study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:48:y:2022:i:c:s1544612322002276
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2022.102978
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SARS; Ebola; Zika; Swine flu; COVID-19; DCC-GARCH; Sovereign bonds; Gold; Pandemics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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