IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/sagope/v13y2023i3p21582440231193600.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Making Informed Decisions in the Volatile Crypto Market: An Analysis of Portfolio Risk and Return

Author

Listed:
  • Artor Nuhiu
  • Florin Aliu
  • Jakub Horák
  • Bedri Peci

Abstract

Despite widespread skepticism linked to cryptocurrencies, they are constantly gaining the interest of scholars, investors, media, and regulators. Recognizing the importance that portfolio risk maintains for crypto participants, this study attempts to shed light on this issue. We investigate the risk-return tradeoffs of the most tradable cryptocurrencies based on portfolio diversification techniques. Three different crypto portfolios containing a diverse number of cryptocurrencies were created to analyze the diversification risk from a historical perspective. Data concerning daily prices and their trade volume was collected from the Coin Market Cap database and covered the period from 1 January 2016 to 31 December 2022. The results regarding the risk-reward tradeoff stand in line with the portfolio theory, where higher expected returns offset higher risk. On average, the portfolio composed of 10 cryptocurrencies offers better optimization than the one with five, as it generates the same returns with lower risk. The year 2018 reflects the maximum diversification benefits in the three portfolios, corresponding to the period when cryptocurrencies gained massive popularity. From the managerial perspective, results inform crypto and institutional investors of the possible diversification benefits of the 15 most traded cryptocurrencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Artor Nuhiu & Florin Aliu & Jakub Horák & Bedri Peci, 2023. "Making Informed Decisions in the Volatile Crypto Market: An Analysis of Portfolio Risk and Return," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(3), pages 21582440231, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:13:y:2023:i:3:p:21582440231193600
    DOI: 10.1177/21582440231193600
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/21582440231193600
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/21582440231193600?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jack Field & A. Can Inci, 2023. "Risk translation: how cryptocurrency impacts company risk, beta and returns," Journal of Capital Markets Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(1), pages 5-21, May.
    2. Bouri, Elie & Lucey, Brian & Roubaud, David, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies and the downside risk in equity investments," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    3. Marie Briere & Kim Oosterlinck & Ariane Szafarz, 2015. "Virtual Currency, Tangible Return: Portfolio Diversification with Bitcoins," Post-Print CEB, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 16(6), pages 365-373.
    4. Ciaian, Pavel & Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Kancs, d'Artis, 2018. "Virtual relationships: Short- and long-run evidence from BitCoin and altcoin markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 173-195.
    5. Sean J. Taylor & Benjamin Letham, 2018. "Forecasting at Scale," The American Statistician, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 72(1), pages 37-45, January.
    6. Malek, Jiri & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Sensoy, Ahmet & Tran, Quang Van, 2023. "Modeling dynamic VaR and CVaR of cryptocurrency returns with alpha-stable innovations," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(PA).
    7. Fry, John, 2018. "Booms, busts and heavy-tails: The story of Bitcoin and cryptocurrency markets?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 225-229.
    8. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    9. Yousaf, Imran & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2022. "Herding behavior in conventional cryptocurrency market, non-fungible tokens, and DeFi assets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    10. Kinateder, Harald & Papavassiliou, Vassilios G., 2021. "Calendar effects in Bitcoin returns and volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    11. Raza, Syed Ali & Khan, Komal Akram & Guesmi, Khaled & Benkraiem, Ramzi, 2023. "Uncertainty in the financial regulation policy and the boom of cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    12. Corbet, Shaen & Meegan, Andrew & Larkin, Charles & Lucey, Brian & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2018. "Exploring the dynamic relationships between cryptocurrencies and other financial assets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 28-34.
    13. Giancarlo Giudici & Alistair Milne & Dmitri Vinogradov, 2020. "Cryptocurrencies: market analysis and perspectives," Economia e Politica Industriale: Journal of Industrial and Business Economics, Springer;Associazione Amici di Economia e Politica Industriale, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, March.
    14. Liu, Weiyi, 2019. "Portfolio diversification across cryptocurrencies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 200-205.
    15. Sean Foley & Jonathan R Karlsen & Tālis J Putniņš, 2019. "Sex, Drugs, and Bitcoin: How Much Illegal Activity Is Financed through Cryptocurrencies?," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1798-1853.
    16. Huang, Xiaoran & Lin, Juan & Wang, Peng, 2022. "Are institutional investors marching into the crypto market?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    17. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    18. Mensi, Walid & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Wanas Al-Jarrah, Idries Mohammad & Vo, Xuan Vinh & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2021. "Does volatility connectedness across major cryptocurrencies behave the same at different frequencies? A portfolio risk analysis," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 96-113.
    19. Almeida, José & Gonçalves, Tiago Cruz, 2023. "A systematic literature review of investor behavior in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    20. Muhammad Owais Qarni & Saiqb Gulzar, 2021. "Portfolio diversification benefits of alternative currency investment in Bitcoin and foreign exchange markets," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-37, December.
    21. Geuder, Julian & Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas F., 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as financial bubbles: The case of Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    22. Yousaf, Imran & Pham, Linh & Goodell, John W., 2023. "The connectedness between meme tokens, meme stocks, and other asset classes: Evidence from a quantile connectedness approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    23. Choudhury, Tonmoy & Kinateder, Harald & Neupane, Biwesh, 2022. "Gold, bonds, and epidemics: A safe haven study," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    24. Díaz, Antonio & Esparcia, Carlos & Huélamo, Diego, 2023. "Stablecoins as a tool to mitigate the downside risk of cryptocurrency portfolios," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    25. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    26. Fry, John & Cheah, Eng-Tuck, 2016. "Negative bubbles and shocks in cryptocurrency markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 343-352.
    27. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    28. Akhtaruzzaman, Md & Sensoy, Ahmet & Corbet, Shaen, 2020. "The influence of Bitcoin on portfolio diversification and design," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    29. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kang, Woo-Young & Spagnolo, Fabio & Spagnolo, Nicola, 2021. "Cyber-attacks, spillovers and contagion in the cryptocurrency markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    2. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    3. Osman, Myriam Ben & Galariotis, Emilios & Guesmi, Khaled & Hamdi, Haykel & Naoui, Kamel, 2023. "Diversification in financial and crypto markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    4. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    5. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    6. Kwon, Ji Ho, 2020. "Tail behavior of Bitcoin, the dollar, gold and the stock market index," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    7. Fang, Tong & Su, Zhi & Yin, Libo, 2020. "Economic fundamentals or investor perceptions? The role of uncertainty in predicting long-term cryptocurrency volatility," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    8. Chu, Jeffrey & Chan, Stephen & Zhang, Yuanyuan, 2021. "Bitcoin versus high-performance technology stocks in diversifying against global stock market indices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 580(C).
    9. Yi, Shuyue & Xu, Zishuang & Wang, Gang-Jin, 2018. "Volatility connectedness in the cryptocurrency market: Is Bitcoin a dominant cryptocurrency?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 98-114.
    10. Robert Hudson & Andrew Urquhart, 2021. "Technical trading and cryptocurrencies," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 297(1), pages 191-220, February.
    11. Parthajit Kayal & Purnima Rohilla, 2021. "Bitcoin in the economics and finance literature: a survey," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 1(7), pages 1-21, July.
    12. Corbet, Shaen & Katsiampa, Paraskevi & Lau, Chi Keung Marco, 2020. "Measuring quantile dependence and testing directional predictability between Bitcoin, altcoins and traditional financial assets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Hu, Yang & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Oxley, Les & Corbet, Shaen, 2021. "Does blockchain patent-development influence Bitcoin risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    14. Helder Miguel Correia Virtuoso Sebastião & Paulo José Osório Rupino Da Cunha & Pedro Manuel Cortesão Godinho, 2021. "Cryptocurrencies and blockchain. Overview and future perspectives," International Journal of Economics and Business Research, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 21(3), pages 305-342.
    15. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-51.
    16. Symitsi, Efthymia & Chalvatzis, Konstantinos J., 2019. "The economic value of Bitcoin: A portfolio analysis of currencies, gold, oil and stocks," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 97-110.
    17. Ihsan Erdem Kayral & Ahmed Jeribi & Sahar Loukil, 2023. "Are Bitcoin and Gold a Safe Haven during COVID-19 and the 2022 Russia–Ukraine War?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-22, April.
    18. Al-Shboul, Mohammad & Assaf, Ata & Mokni, Khaled, 2022. "When bitcoin lost its position: Cryptocurrency uncertainty and the dynamic spillover among cryptocurrencies before and during the COVID-19 pandemic," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    19. Hsu, Shu-Han & Sheu, Chwen & Yoon, Jiho, 2021. "Risk spillovers between cryptocurrencies and traditional currencies and gold under different global economic conditions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Hanif, Waqas & Areola Hernandez, Jose & Troster, Victor & Kang, Sang Hoon & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2022. "Nonlinear dependence and spillovers between cryptocurrency and global/regional equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:sagope:v:13:y:2023:i:3:p:21582440231193600. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.