IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/finlet/v40y2021ics1544612320307820.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic policy uncertainty dispersion and excess returns: Evidence from China

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Jianlei
  • Yang, Chunpeng
  • Hu, Xiaoyi

Abstract

Using the daily economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index of Huang and Luk (2020), we construct an economic policy uncertainty dispersion (EPUD) index and further examine its impact on portfolio excess returns in the Chinese stock markets over the period 2000-2019. Our empirical findings reveal that the EPUD index positively predicts subsequent portfolio excess returns. This effect remains significant as we control for realized volatility, turnover ratio and a variety of macro-economic variables. Besides, we show that the impact of EPUD is stronger in small-stock portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Jianlei & Yang, Chunpeng & Hu, Xiaoyi, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty dispersion and excess returns: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:40:y:2021:i:c:s1544612320307820
    DOI: 10.1016/j.frl.2020.101714
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1544612320307820
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.frl.2020.101714?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Yun & Luk, Paul, 2020. "Measuring economic policy uncertainty in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    2. Evan W. Anderson & Eric Ghysels & Jennifer L. Juergens, 2005. "Do Heterogeneous Beliefs Matter for Asset Pricing?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 875-924.
    3. Yang, Miao & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, 2016. "The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 92-100.
    4. Lubos Pástor & Pietro Veronesi, 2012. "Uncertainty about Government Policy and Stock Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(4), pages 1219-1264, August.
    5. Pástor, Ľuboš & Veronesi, Pietro, 2013. "Political uncertainty and risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 520-545.
    6. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    7. Arouri, Mohamed & Estay, Christophe & Rault, Christophe & Roubaud, David, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock markets: Long-run evidence from the US," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 136-141.
    8. Jonathan Brogaard & Andrew Detzel, 2015. "The Asset-Pricing Implications of Government Economic Policy Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(1), pages 3-18, January.
    9. Jian Chen & Fuwei Jiang & Guoshi Tong, 2017. "Economic policy uncertainty in China and stock market expected returns," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1265-1286, December.
    10. Andrew Ang & Robert J. Hodrick & Yuhang Xing & Xiaoyan Zhang, 2006. "The Cross‐Section of Volatility and Expected Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(1), pages 259-299, February.
    11. Chan, K C & Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. "Structural and Return Characteristics of Small and Large Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(4), pages 1467-1484, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lu, Yunzhi & Li, Jie & Yang, Haisheng, 2023. "Time-varying impacts of monetary policy uncertainty on China's housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    2. Ahmad, Wasim & Kutan, Ali M. & Chahal, Rishman Jot Kaur & Kattumuri, Ruth, 2021. "COVID-19 Pandemic and firm-level dynamics in the USA, UK, Europe, and Japan," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shabir Mohsin Hashmi & Muhammad Akram Gilal & Wing-Keung Wong, 2021. "Sustainability of Global Economic Policy and Stock Market Returns in Indonesia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-18, May.
    2. Xu, Yongan & Wang, Jianqiong & Chen, Zhonglu & Liang, Chao, 2021. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market returns: New evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    3. Liu, Zhenhua & Zhang, Huiying & Ding, Zhihua & Lv, Tao & Wang, Xu & Wang, Deqing, 2022. "When are the effects of economic policy uncertainty on oil–stock correlations larger? Evidence from a regime-switching analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    4. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    5. Hong, Yun & Zhang, Rushan & Zhang, Feipeng, 2024. "Time-varying causality impact of economic policy uncertainty on stock market returns: Global evidence from developed and emerging countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    7. Cristiane Gea & Marcelo Cabus Klotzle & Luciano Vereda & Antonio Carlos Figueiredo Pinto, 2023. "Pricing uncertainty in the Brazilian stock market: do size and sustainability matter?," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-37, January.
    8. Tanveer Bagh & Abdul Waheed & Muhammad Asif Khan & Mirza Muhammad Naseer, 2023. "Effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty on China’s Stock Price Index: A Comprehensive Analysis Using Wavelet Coherence Approach," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(4), pages 21582440231, December.
    9. Lee, Kiryoung & Jeon, Yoontae & Nam, Eun-Young, 2021. "Chinese Economic Policy Uncertainty and the Cross-Section of U.S. Asset Returns," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1063-1077.
    10. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2019. "The impact of economic policy uncertainty and commodity prices on CARB country stock market volatility," MPRA Paper 96577, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Li, Xiao-Ming, 2017. "New evidence on economic policy uncertainty and equity premium," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA), pages 41-56.
    12. Badshah, Ihsan & Demirer, Riza & Suleman, Muhammad Tahir, 2019. "The effect of economic policy uncertainty on stock-commodity correlations and its implications on optimal hedging," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    13. Chen, Xiaoyu & Chiang, Thomas C., 2020. "Empirical investigation of changes in policy uncertainty on stock returns—Evidence from China’s market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    14. Ranajit Kumar Bairagi, 2022. "Dynamic Impacts of Economic Policy Uncertainty on Australian Stock Market: An Intercontinental Evidence," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 21(1), pages 64-91, March.
    15. Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "How does economic policy uncertainty comove with stock markets: New evidence from symmetric thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 604(C).
    16. Bahloul, Walid & Balcilar, Mehmet & Cunado, Juncal & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "The role of economic and financial uncertainties in predicting commodity futures returns and volatility: Evidence from a nonparametric causality-in-quantiles test," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 52-71.
    17. Assad Ullah & Xinshun Zhao & Chenghui Ye & Muhammad Abdul Kamal, 2024. "Impact of Economic Policy Uncertainty Shocks on China’s Stock Market Development: Evidence from Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag and Spectral Causality Approaches," SAGE Open, , vol. 14(3), pages 21582440241, September.
    18. Yunpeng Su & Jia Li & Baochen Yang & Yunbi An, 2024. "The Impacts of Policy Uncertainty on Asset Prices: Evidence from China’s Market," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 31(4), pages 1087-1133, December.
    19. Smales, Lee A., 2020. "Examining the relationship between policy uncertainty and market uncertainty across the G7," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    20. Hu, Zhijun & Kutan, Ali M. & Sun, Ping-Wen, 2018. "Is U.S. economic policy uncertainty priced in China's A-shares market? Evidence from market, industry, and individual stocks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 207-220.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Economic policy uncertainty dispersion; Excess returns; Chinese stock markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:finlet:v:40:y:2021:i:c:s1544612320307820. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/frl .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.