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Modelling multiperiod patterns in stock-market reactions to events, with an application to serial acquisitions

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  • Doan, Minh Phuong
  • Sercu, Piet

Abstract

In event studies, the now standard window of a few days may miss relevant price movements if the market’s reaction to the news announcement tends to be slow or if the initial reaction tends to be partially or wholly undone afterwards. We propose a parsimonious hybrid of splines and Almon lags to detect and classify various patterns of post-event reactions spread over many periods. The scheme can interact with one or more event characteristics (like deal size), and the resulting non-linear model can be estimated via maximum likelihood (ML).

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  • Doan, Minh Phuong & Sercu, Piet, 2021. "Modelling multiperiod patterns in stock-market reactions to events, with an application to serial acquisitions," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:finana:v:77:y:2021:i:c:s1057521921001824
    DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101854
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Event study; Post-event reaction; Almon distributed lag; Serial acquisitions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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