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Merger negotiations with stock market feedback

  • Betton, Sandra

    ()

    (John Molson School of Business, Concordia University)

  • Eckbo, B. Espen

    ()

    (Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College)

  • Thompson, Rex

    ()

    (Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University)

  • Thorburn, Karin S.

    ()

    (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

Merger negotiations routinely occur amidst economically significant a target stock price runups. Since the source of the runup is unobservable (is it a target stand-alone value change and/or deal anticipation?), feeding the runup back into the offer price risks "paying twice" for the target shares. We present a novel structural empirical analysis of this runup feedback hypothesis. We show that rational deal anticipation implies a nonlinear relationship between the runup and the offer price markup (offer price minus runup). Our large-sample tests confirm the existence of this nonlinearity and reject the feedback hypothesis for the portion of the runup not driven by the market return over the runup period. Also, rational bidding implies that bidder takeover gains are increasing in target runups, which our evidence supports. Bidder toehold acquisitions in the runup period are shown to fuel target runups, but lower rather than raise offer premiums. We conclude that the parties to merger negotiations interpret market-adjusted target runups as reflecting deal anticipation.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/164012
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Paper provided by Department of Business and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics in its series Discussion Papers with number 2011/8.

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Length: 48 pages
Date of creation: 10 May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2011_008
Contact details of provider: Postal: NHH, Department of Business and Management Science, Helleveien 30, N-5045 Bergen, Norway
Phone: +47 55 95 92 93
Fax: +47 55 95 96 50
Web page: http://www.nhh.no/en/research-faculty/department-of-business-and-management-science.aspx
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  1. Khoroshilov, Yuri & Dodonova, Anna, 2007. "Takeover auctions with actively participating targets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 293-311, May.
  2. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
  3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-38, May.
  4. Betton, Sandra & Eckbo, B Espen, 2000. "Toeholds, Bid Jumps, and Expected Payoffs in Takeovers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 841-82.
  5. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2010. "Market-Based Corrective Actions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 781-820, February.
  6. Malcolm Baker & Xin Pan & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2009. "A Reference Point Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions," NBER Working Papers 15551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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