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Merger negotiations with stock market feedback

Author

Listed:
  • Betton, Sandra

    () (John Molson School of Business, Concordia University)

  • Eckbo, B. Espen

    () (Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College)

  • Thompson, Rex

    () (Cox School of Business, Southern Methodist University)

  • Thorburn, Karin S.

    () (Dept. of Finance and Management Science, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration)

Abstract

Merger negotiations routinely occur amidst economically significant a target stock price runups. Since the source of the runup is unobservable (is it a target stand-alone value change and/or deal anticipation?), feeding the runup back into the offer price risks "paying twice" for the target shares. We present a novel structural empirical analysis of this runup feedback hypothesis. We show that rational deal anticipation implies a nonlinear relationship between the runup and the offer price markup (offer price minus runup). Our large-sample tests confirm the existence of this nonlinearity and reject the feedback hypothesis for the portion of the runup not driven by the market return over the runup period. Also, rational bidding implies that bidder takeover gains are increasing in target runups, which our evidence supports. Bidder toehold acquisitions in the runup period are shown to fuel target runups, but lower rather than raise offer premiums. We conclude that the parties to merger negotiations interpret market-adjusted target runups as reflecting deal anticipation.

Suggested Citation

  • Betton, Sandra & Eckbo, B. Espen & Thompson, Rex & Thorburn, Karin S., 2011. "Merger negotiations with stock market feedback," Discussion Papers 2011/8, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nhhfms:2011_008
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11250/164012
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Betton, Sandra & Eckbo, B Espen, 2000. "Toeholds, Bid Jumps, and Expected Payoffs in Takeovers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 841-882.
    2. Philip Bond & Itay Goldstein & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2010. "Market-Based Corrective Actions," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 781-820, February.
    3. White, Halbert, 1980. "A Heteroskedasticity-Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimator and a Direct Test for Heteroskedasticity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(4), pages 817-838, May.
    4. Philip Bond & Alex Edmans & Itay Goldstein, 2012. "The Real Effects of Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 4(1), pages 339-360, October.
    5. Khoroshilov, Yuri & Dodonova, Anna, 2007. "Takeover auctions with actively participating targets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 293-311, May.
    6. Malcolm Baker & Xin Pan & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2009. "A Reference Point Theory of Mergers and Acquisitions," NBER Working Papers 15551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Wolfgang Bessler & Colin Schneck, 2015. "Excess premium offers and bidder success in European takeovers," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 5(1), pages 23-62, June.
    2. Pierpaolo Battigalli & Carlo Chiarella & Stefano Gatti & Tommaso Orlando, 2017. "M&A negotiations with limited information: how do opaque firms buy and get bought?," Working Papers 596, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    3. Chou, Hsin-I & Li, Baibing & Yin, Xiangkang & Zhao, Jing, 2017. "Variables in dollar terms versus in rate terms: The case of market feedback on merger negotiations," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 138-145.
    4. Chou, Hsin-I & Tian, Gloria Y. & Yin, Xiangkang, 2015. "Takeover rumors: Returns and pricing of rumored targets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 13-27.
    5. Hong Zhu & Qi Zhu, 2016. "Mergers and acquisitions by Chinese firms: A review and comparison with other mergers and acquisitions research in the leading journals," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, pages 1107-1149.
    6. repec:oup:rcorpf:v:6:y:2017:i:2:p:174-233. is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bessler, Wolfgang & Schneck, Colin & Zimmermann, Jan, 2015. "Bidder contests in international mergers and acquisitions: The impact of toeholds, preemptive bidding, and termination fees," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 4-23.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Merger negotiations; stock market feedback;

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General

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