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Economical assessment of large-scale photovoltaic power development in China

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  • Zhang, Da
  • Chai, Qimin
  • Zhang, Xiliang
  • He, Jiankun
  • Yue, Li
  • Dong, Xiufen
  • Wu, Shu

Abstract

Photovoltaic (PV) power has a huge resource of supply, wide range of usage, and low impact on environment and it is considered as a key factor of the supply mix in the future for China. PV power is still in its infancy in China. It has higher cost than coal-fired power, and needs policy support. In recent years, China has launched a series of policies to stimulate PV power. These policies, however, are temporal, mainly because the total additional investment to make PV power grid parity is uncertain. After a brief review on current status of PV power development in China, this paper applies learning curve theory to study the cost reduction trends of polycrystalline silicon PV cells - main components of large-scale PV (LS-PV) power generation, then sets different scenarios to estimate time and the total learning cost of PV power’s grid parity. MESSAGE model is also applied to make a comparable estimation of the future PV installation in China. The results show that long-term subsidy policy for PV power is feasible in China with the rising cost of coal-fired power, but aggressive subsidy policy is not very efficient.

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  • Zhang, Da & Chai, Qimin & Zhang, Xiliang & He, Jiankun & Yue, Li & Dong, Xiufen & Wu, Shu, 2012. "Economical assessment of large-scale photovoltaic power development in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 370-375.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:40:y:2012:i:1:p:370-375
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2012.01.053
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    16. Tu, Qiang & Mo, Jianlei & Betz, Regina & Cui, Lianbiao & Fan, Ying & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Achieving grid parity of solar PV power in China- The role of Tradable Green Certificate," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    17. Haleh Moghaddasi & Charles Culp & Jorge Vanegas, 2021. "Net Zero Energy Communities: Integrated Power System, Building and Transport Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(21), pages 1-33, October.
    18. Moosavian, S.M. & Rahim, N.A. & Selvaraj, J. & Solangi, K.H., 2013. "Energy policy to promote photovoltaic generation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 44-58.
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    20. Wei, Haokun & Liu, Jian & Yang, Biao, 2014. "Cost-benefit comparison between Domestic Solar Water Heater (DSHW) and Building Integrated Photovoltaic (BIPV) systems for households in urban China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 47-55.
    21. Cansino, J.M. & Cardenete, M.A. & González-Limón, J.M. & Román, R., 2014. "The economic influence of photovoltaic technology on electricity generation: A CGE (computable general equilibrium) approach for the Andalusian case," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 70-79.

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