IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v275y2023ics0360544223009234.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic cost, energy transition, and pollutant mitigation: The effect of China's different mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality

Author

Listed:
  • Liu, Xianmei
  • Peng, Rui
  • Bai, Caiquan
  • Chi, Yuanying
  • Liu, Yuxiang

Abstract

Mitigation pathways play a vital role in realizing carbon neutrality. However, the complex relationships within the social system remain unclear, particularly the economic and energy effects on a macroeconomic level and the critical sectors. This study assesses the economic cost and energy transition effects of different policy scenarios based on an improved dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that (1) energy structure optimization (E2) and integrated policy scenarios could achieve the carbon neutrality target. In addition, carbon sink is another critical factor that can offset the remaining emissions. (2) Projected GDP losses in 2060 fluctuate from 0.7% in the carbon trading scenario (C1) to 4.92% in E2. Energy structure optimization and energy technology scenarios exert greater impacts on the power and iron and steel sectors. (3) The energy structure optimization scenario (high renewable HR: 9.23 billion tce) has the most significant impact on energy consumption, whereas the energy technology policy scenario (E2: 9.48 billion tce) has the smallest effect on energy consumption. (4) One integrated policy scenario (HRC4E2: 7.1 × 104 tons) has the most prominent air pollutant reduction potential, followed by LRC2E2 (25.0 × 104 tons) and HRC3E1 (10.1 × 104 tons).

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xianmei & Peng, Rui & Bai, Caiquan & Chi, Yuanying & Liu, Yuxiang, 2023. "Economic cost, energy transition, and pollutant mitigation: The effect of China's different mitigation pathways toward carbon neutrality," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:275:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223009234
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.127529
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223009234
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.127529?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huang, Hai & Roland-Holst, David & Springer, Cecilia & Lin, Jiang & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Emissions trading systems and social equity: A CGE assessment for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1254-1265.
    2. Liu, Yu & Tan, Xiu-Jie & Yu, Yang & Qi, Shao-Zhou, 2017. "Assessment of impacts of Hubei Pilot emission trading schemes in China – A CGE-analysis using TermCO2 model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 762-769.
    3. Zhang, Tao & Ma, Ying & Li, Angfei, 2021. "Scenario analysis and assessment of China’s nuclear power policy based on the Paris Agreement: A dynamic CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Liu, Xianmei & Peng, Rui & Zhong, Chao & Wang, Mingyue & Guo, Pibin, 2021. "What drives the temporal and spatial differences of CO2 emissions in the transport sector? Empirical evidence from municipalities in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    5. Sannamari Pilpola & Vahid Arabzadeh & Jani Mikkola & Peter D. Lund, 2019. "Analyzing National and Local Pathways to Carbon-Neutrality from Technology, Emissions, and Resilience Perspectives—Case of Finland," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Ryna Yiyun Cui & Nathan Hultman & Diyang Cui & Haewon McJeon & Sha Yu & Morgan R. Edwards & Arijit Sen & Kaihui Song & Christina Bowman & Leon Clarke & Junjie Kang & Jiehong Lou & Fuqiang Yang & Jiaha, 2021. "A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Shining Zhang & Fang Yang & Changyi Liu & Xing Chen & Xin Tan & Yuanbing Zhou & Fei Guo & Weiyi Jiang, 2020. "Study on Global Industrialization and Industry Emission to Achieve the 2 °C Goal Based on MESSAGE Model and LMDI Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(4), pages 1-21, February.
    8. Khoshkalam Khosroshahi, Musa & Sayadi, Mohammad, 2020. "Tracking the sources of rebound effect resulting from the efficiency improvement in petrol, diesel, natural gas and electricity consumption; A CGE analysis for Iran," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    9. Pradhan, Basanta K. & Ghosh, Joydeep, 2019. "Climate policy vs. agricultural productivity shocks in a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling framework: The case of a developing economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 55-69.
    10. Shilpa Rao and Keywan Riahi, 2006. "The Role of Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in Climate Change Mitigation: Long-term Scenarios for the 21st Century," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 177-200.
    11. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jian & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Green growth: The economic impacts of large-scale renewable energy development in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 435-449.
    12. Heleen L. Soest & Michel G. J. Elzen & Detlef P. Vuuren, 2021. "Net-zero emission targets for major emitting countries consistent with the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-9, December.
    13. Huo, Tengfei & Xu, Linbo & Feng, Wei & Cai, Weiguang & Liu, Bingsheng, 2021. "Dynamic scenario simulations of carbon emission peak in China's city-scale urban residential building sector through 2050," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    14. Fan, Jing-Li & Kong, Ling-Si & Zhang, Xian, 2018. "Synergetic effects of water and climate policy on energy-water nexus in China: A computable general equilibrium analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 308-317.
    15. Ren, Ming & Lu, Pantao & Liu, Xiaorui & Hossain, M.S. & Fang, Yanru & Hanaoka, Tatsuya & O'Gallachoir, Brian & Glynn, James & Dai, Hancheng, 2021. "Decarbonizing China’s iron and steel industry from the supply and demand sides for carbon neutrality," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    16. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie & Zhang, Hongzhi, 2017. "The impact of electric vehicles and CCS in the context of emission trading scheme in China: A CGE-based analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 800-816.
    17. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang, 2021. "How to achieve the first step of the carbon-neutrality 2060 target in China: The coal substitution perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 233(C).
    18. Jiang, Kai & Ashworth, Peta, 2021. "The development of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) research in China: A bibliometric perspective," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    19. Turner, Karen & Race, Julia & Alabi, Oluwafisayo & Katris, Antonios & Swales, J. Kim, 2021. "Policy options for funding carbon capture in regional industrial clusters: What are the impacts and trade-offs involved in compensating industry competitiveness loss?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    20. Li, Guangchen & Wei, Weixian, 2021. "Financial development, openness, innovation, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Guangyang He & Wei Jiang & Weidong Gao & Chang Lu, 2024. "Unveiling the Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Greenhouse Gases and Atmospheric Pollutants Emissions of Energy Consumption in Shandong Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-19, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yidan Chen & Jiang Lin & David Roland-Holst & Xu Liu & Can Wang, 2023. "Declining Renewable Costs, Emissions Trading, and Economic Growth: China’s Power System at the Crossroads," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-14, January.
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of quota decline scheme of emission trading in China: A dynamic recursive CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 190-203.
    3. Zhang, Tao & Ma, Ying & Li, Angfei, 2021. "Scenario analysis and assessment of China’s nuclear power policy based on the Paris Agreement: A dynamic CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 228(C).
    4. Chen, Siyuan & Liu, Jiangfeng & Zhang, Qi & Teng, Fei & McLellan, Benjamin C., 2022. "A critical review on deployment planning and risk analysis of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) toward carbon neutrality," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Zhang, Lirong & Li, Yakun & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market: Computable general equilibrium based analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 814-827.
    6. Tan, Xiujie & Sun, Qian & Wang, Meiji & Se Cheong, Tsun & Yan Shum, Wai & Huang, Jinpeng, 2022. "Assessing the effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption and energy mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    7. Zhao, Yuhuan & Shi, Qiaoling & li, Hao & Qian, Zhiling & Zheng, Lu & Wang, Song & He, Yizhang, 2022. "Simulating the economic and environmental effects of integrated policies in energy-carbon-water nexus of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    8. Chen, Jiandong & Xu, Chong & Wang, Yuzhi & Li, Ding & Song, Malin, 2021. "Carbon neutrality based on vegetation carbon sequestration for China's cities and counties: Trend, inequality and driver," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Zhang, Hailing & Liu, Changxin & Wang, Can, 2021. "Extreme climate events and economic impacts in China: A CGE analysis with a new damage function in IAM," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "How does tax system on energy industries affect energy demand, CO2 emissions, and economy in China?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    11. Francesco Macheda, 2022. "Industrial Policies and State-Owned Enterprises: The Foundations of China’s Path Towards Decarbonization," L'industria, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 4, pages 581-619.
    12. Longhui Li & Yue Zhang & Tianjun Zhou & Kaicun Wang & Can Wang & Tao Wang & Linwang Yuan & Kangxin An & Chenghu Zhou & Guonian Lü, 2022. "Mitigation of China’s carbon neutrality to global warming," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-7, December.
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Impacts of carbon price level in carbon emission trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 157-170.
    14. Li, Wei & Lu, Can & Ding, Yi & Zhang, Yan-Wu, 2017. "The impacts of policy mix for resolving overcapacity in heavy chemical industry and operating national carbon emission trading market in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 509-524.
    15. Bo Chen & Feng Jin & Guangchen Li & Yurong Zhao, 2023. "Can the New Energy Demonstration City Policy Promote Green and Low-Carbon Development? Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-16, May.
    16. Hu, Yingying & Wu, Wei, 2023. "Can fossil energy make a soft landing？— the carbon-neutral pathway in China accompanying CCS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    17. Xiao, Kun & Yu, Bolin & Cheng, Lei & Li, Fei & Fang, Debin, 2022. "The effects of CCUS combined with renewable energy penetration under the carbon peak by an SD-CGE model: Evidence from China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 321(C).
    18. Zhang, Bin & Niu, Niu & Li, Hao & Wang, Zhaohua, 2023. "Assessing the efforts of coal phaseout for carbon neutrality in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 352(C).
    19. Bo Wang & Limao Wang & Shuai Zhong & Ning Xiang & Qiushi Qu, 2022. "Low-Carbon Transformation of Electric System against Power Shortage in China: Policy Optimization," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-18, February.
    20. Jia, Zhijie & Lin, Boqiang & Liu, Xiying, 2023. "Rethinking the equity and efficiency of carbon tax: A novel perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 346(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:275:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223009234. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.