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Optimum low-carbon transformation pathways of China's iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality based on a dynamic CGE model

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  • Liu, Xianmei
  • Li, Jialin
  • Bai, Caiquan
  • Peng, Rui
  • Chi, Yuanying
  • Liu, Yuxiang

Abstract

Low-carbon transformation pathways of the iron and steel industry play a significant role towards achieving the carbon neutrality target by 2060. This study explores the low-carbon transformation pathways of China's iron and steel industry in 2060 under different emission reduction policy scenarios by adopting a modified dynamic computable general equilibrium model. We found that: (1) China's crude steel production will peak in 2024–2026, with a value of approximately 10.49 × 102–11.11 × 102 Mt. (2) Four integrated policy scenarios (C1T1E2: carbon trading policy, carbon tax, and renewable energy policy; C1T6E2; C6T1E2; and C6T6E2) have the most potential to achieve the carbon neutrality target by 2060; their remaining CO2 emissions are 2.52 × 102, 1.99 × 102, 1.21 × 102 and 0.69 × 102 in 2060, respectively. (3) The projected CO2 emissions per ton steel from 2020 to 2060, of which the impact degree in the carbon trading market policy scenario shows the most difference, fluctuated from 0.81 t CO2/t under the C1 scenario to 0.42 t CO2/t under the C6 scenario in 2060. (4) The reduction degree of energy consumption per ton steel performed the best in the integrated policy scenarios, of which the integrated C6T6E2 scenario (82 kgce/t in 2060) had the most effect on energy consumption per ton steel, followed by C6T1E2 (101 kgce/t) and C1T6E2 (125 kgce/t).

Suggested Citation

  • Liu, Xianmei & Li, Jialin & Bai, Caiquan & Peng, Rui & Chi, Yuanying & Liu, Yuxiang, 2024. "Optimum low-carbon transformation pathways of China's iron and steel industry towards carbon neutrality based on a dynamic CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:313:y:2024:i:c:s0360544224038015
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2024.134023
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