IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jeners/v16y2023i2p656-d1026501.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Declining Renewable Costs, Emissions Trading, and Economic Growth: China’s Power System at the Crossroads

Author

Listed:
  • Yidan Chen

    (State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

  • Jiang Lin

    (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 207 Giannini Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)

  • David Roland-Holst

    (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, 207 Giannini Hall, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA)

  • Xu Liu

    (National School of Development, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China)

  • Can Wang

    (State Key Joint Laboratory of Environment Simulation and Pollution Control (SKLESPC), School of Environment, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China)

Abstract

As China reaffirms its commitments to limit the climate change risk and improve air quality, a combination of new policy and technology opportunities is presenting itself. A national emission trading scheme (ETS) begun in 2017 and is showing great promise, creating decentralized incentives for cost effective pollution mitigation. At the same time, sustained energy sector innovation is driving the costs of renewable electric power generation below those of fossil fuel substitutes. Early economic evidence of ETS measured pollution reductions, but has not addressed important economy-wide net benefits. This paper focuses on technology and energy cost savings and is the first to account for three multiplier effects—shifting consumption patterns, job growth, and the benefits of induced productivity growth—that would result from accelerated renewable electricity deployment in China. Results from a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model for 2017 to 2030 show that expanding renewable deployment can interact with the ETS to slash GHG emissions, as well as energy costs, stimulating significant long-term economic growth. These results suggest that China should accelerate its clean energy transition, not only for the air-quality and climate benefits, but to fulfill the energy sector’s potential to promote innovation, employment, and economic growth.

Suggested Citation

  • Yidan Chen & Jiang Lin & David Roland-Holst & Xu Liu & Can Wang, 2023. "Declining Renewable Costs, Emissions Trading, and Economic Growth: China’s Power System at the Crossroads," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-14, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:656-:d:1026501
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/2/656/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1996-1073/16/2/656/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/11505qn4ak95irt0cafaeim81j is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Huang, Hai & Roland-Holst, David & Springer, Cecilia & Lin, Jiang & Cai, Wenjia & Wang, Can, 2019. "Emissions trading systems and social equity: A CGE assessment for China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1254-1265.
    3. Liu, Yu & Tan, Xiu-Jie & Yu, Yang & Qi, Shao-Zhou, 2017. "Assessment of impacts of Hubei Pilot emission trading schemes in China – A CGE-analysis using TermCO2 model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 762-769.
    4. Yongsung Chang & Sun-Bin Kim, 2006. "From Individual To Aggregate Labor Supply: A Quantitative Analysis Based On A Heterogeneous Agent Macroeconomy ," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(1), pages 1-27, February.
    5. Tatyana Bulavskaya & Frédéric Reynés, 2018. "Job creation and economic impact of renewable energy in Netherlands," Post-Print hal-03458307, HAL.
    6. Li, Guangyao & Yang, Jin & Chen, Dingjiang & Hu, Shanying, 2017. "Impacts of the coming emission trading scheme on China’s coal-to-materials industry in 2020," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 837-849.
    7. Yan, Zheming & Zou, Baoling & Du, Kerui & Li, Ke, 2020. "Do renewable energy technology innovations promote China's green productivity growth? Fresh evidence from partially linear functional-coefficient models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Li, Wei & Lu, Can & Ding, Yi & Zhang, Yan-Wu, 2017. "The impacts of policy mix for resolving overcapacity in heavy chemical industry and operating national carbon emission trading market in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 509-524.
    9. Can Tansel TUGCU, 2013. "Disaggregate Energy Consumption and Total Factor Productivity: A Cointegration and Causality Analysis for the Turkish Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(3), pages 307-314.
    10. Yeo, Yeongjun & Lee, Jeong-Dong, 2020. "Revitalizing the race between technology and education: Investigating the growth strategy for the knowledge-based economy based on a CGE analysis," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    11. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Liang, Ting & Jin, Yan-Lin & Shen, Bo, 2020. "The impact of carbon trading on economic output and carbon emissions reduction in China’s industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    12. Chang, Shiyan & Yang, Xi & Zheng, Haotian & Wang, Shuxiao & Zhang, Xiliang, 2020. "Air quality and health co-benefits of China's national emission trading system," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2020. "Is emission trading scheme an opportunity for renewable energy in China? A perspective of ETS revenue redistributions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(C).
    14. Bulavskaya, Tatyana & Reynès, Frédéric, 2018. "Job creation and economic impact of renewable energy in the Netherlands," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 528-538.
    15. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2017. "The impact of Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) and the choice of coverage industry in ETS: A case study in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1512-1527.
    16. Springer, Cecilia & Evans, Sam & Lin, Jiang & Roland-Holst, David, 2019. "Low carbon growth in China: The role of emissions trading in a transitioning economy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 235(C), pages 1118-1125.
    17. Chen, Zhenling & Yuan, Xiao-Chen & Zhang, Xiaoling & Cao, Yunfei, 2020. "How will the Chinese national carbon emissions trading scheme work? The assessment of regional potential gains," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    18. Dai, Hancheng & Xie, Xuxuan & Xie, Yang & Liu, Jian & Masui, Toshihiko, 2016. "Green growth: The economic impacts of large-scale renewable energy development in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 435-449.
    19. Zhang, Cheng & Wang, Qunwei & Shi, Dan & Li, Pengfei & Cai, Wanhuan, 2016. "Scenario-based potential effects of carbon trading in China: An integrated approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 177-190.
    20. Wang, Peng & Dai, Han-cheng & Ren, Song-yan & Zhao, Dai-qing & Masui, Toshihiko, 2015. "Achieving Copenhagen target through carbon emission trading: Economic impacts assessment in Guangdong Province of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 212-227.
    21. Wu, Rui & Dai, Hancheng & Geng, Yong & Xie, Yang & Masui, Toshihiko & Tian, Xu, 2016. "Achieving China’s INDC through carbon cap-and-trade: Insights from Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1114-1122.
    22. Ladu, Maria Gabriela & Meleddu, Marta, 2014. "Is there any relationship between energy and TFP (total factor productivity)? A panel cointegration approach for Italian regions," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 560-567.
    23. Zhang, Lirong & Li, Yakun & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market: Computable general equilibrium based analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 814-827.
    24. Li, Wei & Jia, Zhijie, 2016. "The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota: A dynamic recursive CGE model in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 1-14.
    25. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Impacts of carbon price level in carbon emission trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 157-170.
    26. Rath, Badri Narayan & Akram, Vaseem & Bal, Debi Prasad & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar, 2019. "Do fossil fuel and renewable energy consumption affect total factor productivity growth? Evidence from cross-country data with policy insights," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 186-199.
    27. Mu, Yaqian & Evans, Samuel & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "How will sectoral coverage affect the efficiency of an emissions trading system? A CGE-based case study of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C), pages 403-414.
    28. Liu, Zhiqing & Geng, Yong & Dai, Hancheng & Wilson, Jeffrey & Xie, Yang & Wu, Rui & You, Wei & Yu, Zhongjue, 2018. "Regional impacts of launching national carbon emissions trading market: A case study of Shanghai," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 230(C), pages 232-240.
    29. Li, Wei & Lu, Can & Zhang, Yan-Wu, 2019. "Prospective exploration of future renewable portfolio standard schemes in China via a multi-sector CGE model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 45-56.
    30. Michael Keane & Richard Rogerson, 2015. "Reconciling Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities: A Structural Perspective," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 89-117, August.
    31. Sue Wing, Ian, 2008. "The synthesis of bottom-up and top-down approaches to climate policy modeling: Electric power technology detail in a social accounting framework," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 547-573, March.
    32. Tang, Ling & Wu, Jiaqian & Yu, Lean & Bao, Qin, 2017. "Carbon allowance auction design of China's emissions trading scheme: A multi-agent-based approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 30-40.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yu, Zhongjue & Geng, Yong & Calzadilla, Alvaro & Bleischwitz, Raimund, 2022. "China's unconventional carbon emissions trading market: The impact of a rate-based cap in the power generation sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 255(C).
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of quota decline scheme of emission trading in China: A dynamic recursive CGE model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 190-203.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Jia, Zhijie, 2019. "Impacts of carbon price level in carbon emission trading market," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(C), pages 157-170.
    4. Wu, Qunli & Ma, Zhe & Meng, Fanxing, 2022. "Long-term impacts of carbon allowance allocation in China: An IC-DCGE model optimized by the hypothesis of imperfectly competitive market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    5. Tan, Xiujie & Sun, Qian & Wang, Meiji & Se Cheong, Tsun & Yan Shum, Wai & Huang, Jinpeng, 2022. "Assessing the effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption and energy mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    6. Wang, Xu & Zhu, Lei & Fan, Ying, 2018. "Transaction costs, market structure and efficient coverage of emissions trading scheme: A microlevel study from the pilots in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 220(C), pages 657-671.
    7. Mardones, Cristian & Ortega, José, 2021. "Are the emissions trading systems’ simulations generated with a computable general equilibrium model sensitive to the nested production structure?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 298(C).
    8. Tang, Ling & Wang, Haohan & Li, Ling & Yang, Kaitong & Mi, Zhifu, 2020. "Quantitative models in emission trading system research: A literature review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    9. Pang, Jun & Timilsina, Govinda, 2021. "How would an emissions trading scheme affect provincial economies in China: Insights from a computable general equilibrium model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    10. Zhang, Lirong & Li, Yakun & Jia, Zhijie, 2018. "Impact of carbon allowance allocation on power industry in China’s carbon trading market: Computable general equilibrium based analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C), pages 814-827.
    11. Haoran Zhang & Rongxia Zhang & Guomin Li & Wei Li & Yongrok Choi, 2020. "Has China’s Emission Trading System Achieved the Development of a Low-Carbon Economy in High-Emission Industrial Subsectors?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(13), pages 1-20, July.
    12. Mu, Yaqian & Wang, Can & Cai, Wenjia, 2018. "The economic impact of China's INDC: Distinguishing the roles of the renewable energy quota and the carbon market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 2955-2966.
    13. Zhao, Yuhuan & Shi, Qiaoling & li, Hao & Qian, Zhiling & Zheng, Lu & Wang, Song & He, Yizhang, 2022. "Simulating the economic and environmental effects of integrated policies in energy-carbon-water nexus of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PA).
    14. Jin, Yana & Liu, Xiaorui & Chen, Xiang & Dai, Hancheng, 2020. "Allowance allocation matters in China's carbon emissions trading system," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Li, Wei & Lu, Can & Ding, Yi & Zhang, Yan-Wu, 2017. "The impacts of policy mix for resolving overcapacity in heavy chemical industry and operating national carbon emission trading market in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 204(C), pages 509-524.
    16. Di Zhou & Xiaoyu Liang & Ye Zhou & Kai Tang, 2020. "Does Emission Trading Boost Carbon Productivity? Evidence from China’s Pilot Emission Trading Scheme," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-16, July.
    17. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Liang, Ting & Jin, Yan-Lin & Shen, Bo, 2020. "The impact of carbon trading on economic output and carbon emissions reduction in China’s industrial sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    18. Li, Guangyao & Yang, Jin & Chen, Dingjiang & Hu, Shanying, 2017. "Impacts of the coming emission trading scheme on China’s coal-to-materials industry in 2020," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C), pages 837-849.
    19. Liangpeng Wu & Qingyuan Zhu, 2021. "Impacts of the carbon emission trading system on China’s carbon emission peak: a new data-driven approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 107(3), pages 2487-2515, July.
    20. Brown, Marilyn A. & Li, Yufei & Soni, Anmol, 2020. "Are all jobs created equal? Regional employment impacts of a U.S. carbon tax," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 262(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jeners:v:16:y:2023:i:2:p:656-:d:1026501. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.