IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v252y2022ics0360544222009914.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Research on credit rating and risk measurement of electricity retailers based on Bayesian Best Worst Method-Cloud Model and improved Credit Metrics model in China's power market

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yuanyuan
  • Zhao, Huiru
  • Li, Bingkang
  • Zhao, Yihang
  • Qi, Ze

Abstract

With the advancement of Power Market reform and the opening of the Demand Side market, the dynamic risk management of electricity retailers has attracted more attention. This paper designs a risk prevention linkage mechanism of credit evaluation-risk measurement for retailers. Firstly, this paper constructs a retailers' credit evaluation index system containing 18 indexes, and proposes a retailers' credit rating technology based on Bayesian Best Worst Method (BBWM)- Cloud model. On the basis of Best Worst Method (BWM), BBWM uses Multinomial Distribution to model the input indexes, so as to obtain more reliable weights in the group decision-making environment. Secondly, a credit risk measurement model based on improved Credit Metrics model and CVaR method for electricity retailers is constructed. The Credit Metrics model adopts the Marked-to-Market system, which can consider the retailers' default risk and the risk of credit rating changes, and CVaR method can accurately describe the retailers’ credit risk. Finally, four electricity retailers are taken as examples to verify the effectiveness and scientificity of the model. This paper can provide guarantee and theoretical basis for the credit management of Power Sales market, standardize the behavior of electricity retailers and reduce the transaction risk of Power Market.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yuanyuan & Zhao, Huiru & Li, Bingkang & Zhao, Yihang & Qi, Ze, 2022. "Research on credit rating and risk measurement of electricity retailers based on Bayesian Best Worst Method-Cloud Model and improved Credit Metrics model in China's power market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:252:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222009914
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2022.124088
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544222009914
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2022.124088?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Polemis, Michael L., 2017. "An integrated model for assessing electricity retailer’s profitability with demand response," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 49-64.
    2. Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun & Goutte, Stéphane & Porcher, Simon & Porcher, Thomas, 2015. "Hedging strategies in energy markets: The case of electricity retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 503-509.
    3. Ming Wu & Gang Cheng & Jiajing Gao, 2021. "Research on the Measurement of Subject Credit Risk of Chinese Port Enterprises by Constrained Logistic Regression," Asia-Pacific Journal of Operational Research (APJOR), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 38(03), pages 1-22, June.
    4. Qi Zhang & Shaohua Zhang & Xian Wang & Xue Li & Lei Wu, 2020. "Conditional-Robust-Profit-Based Optimization Model for Electricity Retailers with Shiftable Demand," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-19, March.
    5. Wen, Danyan & Wang, Gang-Jin & Ma, Chaoqun & Wang, Yudong, 2019. "Risk spillovers between oil and stock markets: A VAR for VaR analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 524-535.
    6. Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun & Zachmann, Georg, 2012. "Retailers' risk management and vertical arrangements in electricity markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 465-472.
    7. Fernandes, Guilherme Barreto & Artes, Rinaldo, 2016. "Spatial dependence in credit risk and its improvement in credit scoring," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 517-524.
    8. Shen, Yifan & Shi, Xunpeng & Variam, Hari Malamakkavu Padinjare, 2018. "Risk transmission mechanism between energy markets: A VAR for VaR approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 377-388.
    9. Waseem Ahmed Abbasi & Zongrun Wang & Yanju Zhou & Shahzad Hassan, 2019. "Research on measurement of supply chain finance credit risk based on Internet of Things," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 15(9), pages 15501477198, September.
    10. Boroumand, Raphaël Homayoun & Goutte, Stéphane & Porcher, Simon & Porcher, Thomas, 2015. "Hedging strategies in energy markets: The case of electricity retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 503-509.
    11. Peng, Xu & Tao, Xiaoma, 2018. "Cooperative game of electricity retailers in China's spot electricity market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 152-170.
    12. Allen, D.E. & Powell, R.J. & Singh, A.K., 2016. "Take it to the limit: Innovative CVaR applications to extreme credit risk measurement," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 465-475.
    13. Rezaei, Jafar, 2015. "Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 49-57.
    14. Ghasemi, Ahmad & Jamshidi Monfared, Houman & Loni, Abdolah & Marzband, Mousa, 2021. "CVaR-based retail electricity pricing in day-ahead scheduling of microgrids," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Changzheng Gao & Xiuna Wang & Dongwei Li & Chao Han & Weiyang You & Yihang Zhao, 2023. "A Novel Hybrid Power-Grid Investment Optimization Model with Collaborative Consideration of Risk and Benefit," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(20), pages 1-23, October.
    2. Liu, Xinglei & Liu, Jun & Ren, Kezheng & Liu, Xiaoming & Liu, Jiacheng, 2022. "An integrated fuzzy multi-energy transaction evaluation approach for energy internet markets considering judgement credibility and variable rough precision," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 261(PB).
    3. Sarfaraz Hashemkhani Zolfani & Ramin Bazrafshan & Fatih Ecer & Çağlar Karamaşa, 2022. "The Suitability-Feasibility-Acceptability Strategy Integrated with Bayesian BWM-MARCOS Methods to Determine the Optimal Lithium Battery Plant Located in South America," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(14), pages 1-18, July.
    4. Himanshu Gupta & Manjeet Kharub & Kumar Shreshth & Ashwani Kumar & Donald Huisingh & Anil Kumar, 2023. "Evaluation of strategies to manage risks in smart, sustainable agri‐logistics sector: A Bayesian‐based group decision‐making approach," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(7), pages 4335-4359, November.
    5. Cheng, Xiong & Lv, Xin & Li, Xianshan & Zhong, Hao & Feng, Jia, 2023. "Market power evaluation in the electricity market based on the weighted maintenance object," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    6. Chin-Cheng Yang & Wan-Chi Jackie Hsu & Chung-Shu Yeh & Yu-Sheng Lin, 2024. "A Hybrid Model for Fitness Influencer Competency Evaluation Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-23, February.
    7. Haojianxiong Yu & Jianjian Shen & Chuntian Cheng & Jia Lu & Huaxiang Cai, 2023. "Multi-Objective Optimal Long-Term Operation of Cascade Hydropower for Multi-Market Portfolio and Energy Stored at End of Year," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-21, January.
    8. Jiacheng Jia & Guiliang Yin & Lingling Sun & Ahmed Abu-Siada, 2022. "Schedule Strategy Considering the Overload Violation Risk to the Security Region in Distribution Networks," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(23), pages 1-18, November.
    9. Yu Xia & Ta Xu & Ming-Xia Wei & Zhen-Ke Wei & Lian-Jie Tang, 2023. "Predicting Chain’s Manufacturing SME Credit Risk in Supply Chain Finance Based on Machine Learning Methods," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-18, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    2. Boroumand, Raphaël-Homayoun & Goutte, Stéphane & Guesmi, Khaled & Porcher, Thomas, 2019. "Potential benefits of optimal intra-day electricity hedging for the environment: The perspective of electricity retailers," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1120-1129.
    3. Russo, Marianna & Kraft, Emil & Bertsch, Valentin & Keles, Dogan, 2022. "Short-term risk management of electricity retailers under rising shares of decentralized solar generation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    4. Nojavan, Sayyad & Zare, Kazem & Mohammadi-Ivatloo, Behnam, 2017. "Optimal stochastic energy management of retailer based on selling price determination under smart grid environment in the presence of demand response program," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 187(C), pages 449-464.
    5. Sen Guo & Wenyue Zhang & Xiao Gao, 2020. "Business Risk Evaluation of Electricity Retail Company in China Using a Hybrid MCDM Method," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-21, March.
    6. Koltsaklis, Nikolaos E. & Nazos, Konstantinos, 2017. "A stochastic MILP energy planning model incorporating power market dynamics," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C), pages 1364-1383.
    7. Peña, Juan Ignacio & Rodríguez, Rosa & Mayoral, Silvia, 2020. "Tail risk of electricity futures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    8. Arthur Lauro & Daniel Kitamura & Waleska Lima & Bruno Dias & Tiago Soares, 2023. "Considering Forward Electricity Prices for a Hydro Power Plant Risk Analysis in the Brazilian Electricity Market," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-13, January.
    9. Paolo Falbo & Carlos Ruiz, 2021. "Joint optimization of sales-mix and generation plan for a large electricity producer," Papers 2110.02016, arXiv.org.
    10. Alfredo Trespalacios & Lina M. Cortés & Javier Perote, 2021. "Modeling Electricity Price and Quantity Uncertainty: An Application for Hedging with Forward Contracts," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-26, June.
    11. Juan M. Gómez & Yeny E. Rodríguez, 2022. "Multiperiod Portfolio of Energy Purchasing Strategies including Climate Scenarios," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-25, April.
    12. Souhir, Ben Amor & Heni, Boubaker & Lotfi, Belkacem, 2019. "Price risk and hedging strategies in Nord Pool electricity market evidence with sector indexes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 635-655.
    13. Silva, Rodolfo Rodrigues Barrionuevo & Martins, André Christóvão Pio & Soler, Edilaine Martins & Baptista, Edméa Cássia & Balbo, Antonio Roberto & Nepomuceno, Leonardo, 2022. "Two-stage stochastic energy procurement model for a large consumer in hydrothermal systems," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    14. Kyriaki Psara & Christina Papadimitriou & Marily Efstratiadi & Sotiris Tsakanikas & Panos Papadopoulos & Paul Tobin, 2022. "European Energy Regulatory, Socioeconomic, and Organizational Aspects: An Analysis of Barriers Related to Data-Driven Services across Electricity Sectors," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(6), pages 1-25, March.
    15. Parlane, Sarah & Ryan, Lisa, 2020. "Optimal contracts for renewable electricity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    16. Makushkin, Mikhail & Lapshin, Victor, 2020. "Modelling tail dependencies between Russian and foreign stock markets: Application for market risk valuation," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 57, pages 30-52.
    17. George E. Halkos & Apostolos S. Tsirivis, 2019. "Energy Commodities: A Review of Optimal Hedging Strategies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 12(20), pages 1-19, October.
    18. Jens Baetens & Jeroen D. M. De Kooning & Greet Van Eetvelde & Lieven Vandevelde, 2020. "A Two-Stage Stochastic Optimisation Methodology for the Operation of a Chlor-Alkali Electrolyser under Variable DAM and FCR Market Prices," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(21), pages 1-19, October.
    19. Dadashi, Mojtaba & Haghifam, Sara & Zare, Kazem & Haghifam, Mahmoud-Reza & Abapour, Mehdi, 2020. "Short-term scheduling of electricity retailers in the presence of Demand Response Aggregators: A two-stage stochastic Bi-Level programming approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 205(C).
    20. Janczura, Joanna & Wójcik, Edyta, 2022. "Dynamic short-term risk management strategies for the choice of electricity market based on probabilistic forecasts of profit and risk measures. The German and the Polish market case study," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:252:y:2022:i:c:s0360544222009914. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.