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Forecasting the U.S. oil markets based on social media information during the COVID-19 pandemic

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  • Wu, Binrong
  • Wang, Lin
  • Wang, Sirui
  • Zeng, Yu-Rong

Abstract

Accurate oil market forecasting plays an important role in the theory and application of oil supply chain management for profit maximization and risk minimization. However, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has compelled governments worldwide to impose restrictions, consequently forcing the closure of most social and economic activities. The latter leads to the volatility of the oil markets and poses a huge challenge to oil market forecasting. Fortunately, the social media information can finely reflect oil market factors and exogenous factors, such as conflicts and political instability. Accordingly, this study collected vast online oil news and used convolutional neural network to extract relevant information automatically. Oil markets are divided into four categories: oil price, oil production, oil consumption, and oil inventory. A total of 16,794; 9,139; 8,314; and 8,548 news headlines were collected in four respective cases. Experimental results indicate that social media information contributes to the forecasting of oil price, oil production and oil consumption. The mean absolute percentage errors are respectively 0.0717, 0.0144 and 0.0168 for the oil price, production, and consumption prediction during the COVID-19 pandemic. Marketers must consider the impact of social media information on the oil or similar markets, especially during the COVID-19 outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Wu, Binrong & Wang, Lin & Wang, Sirui & Zeng, Yu-Rong, 2021. "Forecasting the U.S. oil markets based on social media information during the COVID-19 pandemic," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:226:y:2021:i:c:s0360544221006526
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120403
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    13. Adila El Maghraoui & Younes Ledmaoui & Oussama Laayati & Hicham El Hadraoui & Ahmed Chebak, 2022. "Smart Energy Management: A Comparative Study of Energy Consumption Forecasting Algorithms for an Experimental Open-Pit Mine," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-22, June.
    14. Wuyue An & Lin Wang & Yu‐Rong Zeng, 2023. "Text‐based soybean futures price forecasting: A two‐stage deep learning approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(2), pages 312-330, March.
    15. Duan, Huiming & Nie, Weige, 2022. "A novel grey model based on Susceptible Infected Recovered Model: A case study of COVD-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 602(C).
    16. Marcus Vinicius Santos & Fernando Morgado-Dias & Thiago C. Silva, 2023. "Oil Sector and Sentiment Analysis—A Review," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(12), pages 1-29, June.
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    18. Costa, Vinicius B.F. & Pereira, Lígia C. & Andrade, Jorge V.B. & Bonatto, Benedito D., 2022. "Future assessment of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the electricity market based on a stochastic socioeconomic model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    19. Wuyue An & Lin Wang & Dongfeng Zhang, 2023. "Comprehensive commodity price forecasting framework using text mining methods," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(7), pages 1865-1888, November.
    20. Rouatbi, Wael & Demir, Ender & Kizys, Renatas & Zaremba, Adam, 2021. "Immunizing markets against the pandemic: COVID-19 vaccinations and stock volatility around the world," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    21. Pradyot Ranjan Jena & Shunsuke Managi & Babita Majhi, 2021. "Forecasting the CO 2 Emissions at the Global Level: A Multilayer Artificial Neural Network Modelling," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-23, October.
    22. Kais Tissaoui & Taha Zaghdoudi & Abdelaziz Hakimi & Ousama Ben-Salha & Lamia Ben Amor, 2022. "Does Uncertainty Forecast Crude Oil Volatility before and during the COVID-19 Outbreak? Fresh Evidence Using Machine Learning Models," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-20, August.
    23. Anqiang Huang & Xinjun Liu & Changrui Rao & Yi Zhang & Yifan He, 2022. "A New Container Throughput Forecasting Paradigm under COVID-19," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-20, March.

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