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Modeling the CO2 emissions and energy saved from new energy vehicles based on the logistic-curve

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  • Tang, Bao-jun
  • Wu, Xiao-feng
  • Zhang, Xian

Abstract

The Chinese government has outlined plans for developing new energy vehicles (NEVs) to achieve energy conservation and emission reduction. This paper used a logistic-curve to predict the market share of NEVs in the next decade, and then calculated the potential environment benefits of each and every car or the total according to the report of IPCC (2006). The results indicated that NEVs were of benefit in achieving above goals, particularly electric vehicles (EVs). However, they will have a limited impact in the short term. Finally, considering the empirical results and the Chinese reality, this paper proposed corresponding recommendations.

Suggested Citation

  • Tang, Bao-jun & Wu, Xiao-feng & Zhang, Xian, 2013. "Modeling the CO2 emissions and energy saved from new energy vehicles based on the logistic-curve," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 30-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:57:y:2013:i:c:p:30-35
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.06.021
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    1. Doucette, Reed T. & McCulloch, Malcolm D., 2011. "Modeling the prospects of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles to reduce CO2 emissions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(7), pages 2315-2323, July.
    2. Smith, William J., 2010. "Can EV (electric vehicles) address Ireland’s CO2 emissions from transport?," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4514-4521.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhang, Lei & Qin, Quande, 2018. "China’s new energy vehicle policies: Evolution, comparison and recommendation," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 57-72.
    2. Wang, Jinghua & Zhang, Zhao & Lu, Guangquan & Yu, Bin & Zhan, Chengyu & Cai, Jingsong, 2023. "Analyzing multiple COVID-19 outbreak impacts: A case study based on Chinese national air passenger flow," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    3. Ji, Qing & Wang, Chunan & Fan, Ying, 2022. "Environmental and welfare effects of vehicle purchase tax: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Wenbo Li & Ruyin Long & Hong Chen & Baoqi Dou & Feiyu Chen & Xiao Zheng & Zhengxia He, 2020. "Public Preference for Electric Vehicle Incentive Policies in China: A Conjoint Analysis," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-16, January.
    5. Weixing Liu & Hongtao Yi, 2020. "What Affects the Diffusion of New Energy Vehicles Financial Subsidy Policy? Evidence from Chinese Cities," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-15, January.
    6. Yuan, Xueliang & Liu, Xin & Zuo, Jian, 2015. "The development of new energy vehicles for a sustainable future: A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 298-305.
    7. Park, Changeun & Lim, Sesil & Shin, Jungwoo & Lee, Chul-Yong, 2022. "How much hydrogen should be supplied in the transportation market? Focusing on hydrogen fuel cell vehicle demand in South Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).
    8. Karan, Ebrahim & Mohammadpour, Atefeh & Asadi, Somayeh, 2016. "Integrating building and transportation energy use to design a comprehensive greenhouse gas mitigation strategy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 165(C), pages 234-243.
    9. Xiu SHI & Rui JING & Guang-ming HOU & Jun-peng WANG, 2019. "Network Position Advantage and Technological Innovation of China’s New Energy Vehicle Based on the Perspective of Network Theory," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-18, April.
    10. Peng Yu & Jian Zhang & Defang Yang & Xin Lin & Tianying Xu, 2019. "The Evolution of China’s New Energy Vehicle Industry from the Perspective of a Technology–Market–Policy Framework," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-14, March.
    11. Ziying Yang & Manping Tang, 2019. "Welfare Analysis of Government Subsidy Programs for Fuel-Efficient Vehicles and New Energy Vehicles in China," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 74(2), pages 911-937, October.
    12. Li, Wenbo & Long, Ruyin & Chen, Hong & Yang, Tong & Geng, Jichao & Yang, Muyi, 2018. "Effects of personal carbon trading on the decision to adopt battery electric vehicles: Analysis based on a choice experiment in Jiangsu, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 478-488.
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Tan, Ruipeng, 2017. "Estimation of the environmental values of electric vehicles in Chinese cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 221-229.
    14. Ji, Shou-feng & Zhao, Dan & Luo, Rong-juan, 2019. "Evolutionary game analysis on local governments and manufacturers' behavioral strategies: Impact of phasing out subsidies for new energy vehicles," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    New energy vehicles; Scenario analysis; Energy saving;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q20 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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