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The significance of regulation and land use patterns on natural gas resource estimates in the Marcellus shale

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  • Blohm, Andrew
  • Peichel, Jeremy
  • Smith, Caroline
  • Kougentakis, Alexandra

Abstract

Recent advancements in natural gas extraction (e.g. hydraulic fracturing) have significantly increased natural gas reserves in the United States. Estimates of the technically recoverable natural gas (TRR) in the Marcellus range between 141 trillion cubic feet (TCF) and 489TCF. However, TRR estimation does not incorporate existing policies, regulations, or land use. We find that approximately 48% of the Marcellus in New York and Pennsylvania is inaccessible given land use patterns and current policy. In New York, approximately 83% of the Marcellus is inaccessible; while in Pennsylvania about 32% of the Marcellus is off limits to drilling. The New York portion of the Marcellus is estimated to have a TRR of between 19.9TCF and 68.9TCF. We estimate that 79% of the resource is inaccessible, which results in an accessible resource estimate of between 4.2TCF and 14.4TCF. In Pennsylvania, the shale gas TRR is estimated at 86.6–300TCF. However, we estimate that 31% of the resource is inaccessible, which results in an accessible resource estimate of between 60.0TCF and 208TCF.

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  • Blohm, Andrew & Peichel, Jeremy & Smith, Caroline & Kougentakis, Alexandra, 2012. "The significance of regulation and land use patterns on natural gas resource estimates in the Marcellus shale," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 358-369.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:50:y:2012:i:c:p:358-369
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2012.07.031
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    1. Baranzelli, Claudia & Vandecasteele, Ine & Ribeiro Barranco, Ricardo & Mari i Rivero, Ines & Pelletier, Nathan & Batelaan, Okke & Lavalle, Carlo, 2015. "Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 80-95.
    2. Zwickl, Klara, 2019. "The demographics of fracking: A spatial analysis for four U.S. states," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 202-215.
    3. Lozano Maya, Juan Roberto, 2013. "The United States experience as a reference of success for shale gas development: The case of Mexico," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 70-78.
    4. Chris Cunningham & Kristopher Gerardi & Yannan Shen, 2017. "Fracking and Mortgage Default," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-4, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    5. Cronshaw, Ian & Quentin Grafton, R., 2016. "A tale of two states: Development and regulation of coal bed methane extraction in Queensland and New South Wales, Australia," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 253-263.
    6. Philipp M. Richter, 2015. "From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    7. Johnson, Corey & Boersma, Tim, 2013. "Energy (in)security in Poland the case of shale gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 389-399.
    8. Centner, Terence J., 2013. "Oversight of shale gas production in the United States and the disclosure of toxic substances," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 233-240.
    9. Charles Abdalla & Renata Rimsaite & Bryan Swistock, 2014. "Municipal officials’ decisions to lease watershed lands for Marcellus shale gas exploration," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 28-36, March.
    10. Geltman, Elizabeth Glass & Gill, Gunwant & Jovanovic, Miriam, 2016. "Impact of Executive Order 13211 on environmental regulation: An empirical study," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 302-310.
    11. Darrick Evensen & Christopher Clarke & Richard Stedman, 2014. "A New York or Pennsylvania state of mind: social representations in newspaper coverage of gas development in the Marcellus Shale," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 4(1), pages 65-77, March.
    12. Cronshaw, Ian & Grafton, R. Quentin, 2016. "Economic benefits, external costs and the regulation of unconventional gas in the United States," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 180-186.

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