Demand for seasonal gas storage in northwest Europe until 2030: Simulation results with a dynamic model

The fact that depletion of indigenous gas production increases gas import dependency is widely known and accepted. However, there is considerable less attention for the implications of indigenous resource depletion for the provision of seasonal flexibility. The traditionally largest source of seasonal flexibility in Europe is indigenous gas production, mainly based in the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. With the depletion of indigenous sources the market increasingly needs to rely on other sources for seasonal flexibility, such as gas storage facilities. We investigate the future need for gas storage as a source for seasonal flexibility provision using a dynamic gas market model (GASTALE) in which different potential sources for seasonal flexibility - gas production, imports via pipeline, LNG imports and storage facilities - compete with each other in a market-based environment. The inclusion of seasonal flexibility properties in a gas market model allows a more complex analysis of seasonal flexibility issues than previously documented in literature. This is demonstrated in an analysis of the future demand for gas storage in northwestern Europe until 2030. Our results indicate that there is substantial need for additional gas storage facilities and thus supports current project proposals for new investment in gas storage facilities.