IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v138y2020ics0301421519307979.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends

Author

Listed:
  • Yu, Jinglei
  • Shao, Chaofeng
  • Xue, Chenyang
  • Hu, Huaqing

Abstract

In order to explore the decoupling relationship and its influence factors between the growth of China's civil aviation sector and carbon emissions, as well as to forecast future CO2 emissions, the extended log-mean Divisia index model (LMDI), Tapio decoupling model and an emission prediction model were applied in this study. The results show the following. (1) Total carbon emissions fluctuate on an overall upward trend, but the level of oil consumption per revenue tonne-kilometers (RTK) shows a steady downward trend. (2) Among the four main factors, the “transportation amount growth” factor contributed most to CO2 emissions increases; followed by transport structure adjustment effects and alternative fuel effects. The “energy consumption intensity” factor plays a major role in inhibiting CO2 emissions. (3) The decoupling state of civil aviation predominantly stayed in a weak decoupling prior to 1988, expansive coupling and expansive negative decoupling during 1988–2000, and expansive coupling post-2000, which implies that the government should take comprehensive measures to reduce CO2 emissions. (4) Based on eight scenarios, China's civil aviation sector is predicted to be responsible for 0.13 Gt of CO2 emissions by 2020. Between 2020 and 2050, CO2 emissions may increase by a factor 1.6 to 3.9.

Suggested Citation

  • Yu, Jinglei & Shao, Chaofeng & Xue, Chenyang & Hu, Huaqing, 2020. "China's aircraft-related CO2 emissions: Decomposition analysis, decoupling status, and future trends," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0301421519307979
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111215
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421519307979
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111215?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ang, B. W., 2004. "Decomposition analysis for policymaking in energy:: which is the preferred method?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1131-1139, June.
    2. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Da, Ya-Bin, 2015. "The decomposition of energy-related carbon emission and its decoupling with economic growth in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 1255-1266.
    3. Tapio, Petri, 2005. "Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 137-151, March.
    4. Morrell, Peter, 2009. "The potential for European aviation CO2 emissions reduction through the use of larger jet aircraft," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 151-157.
    5. Carlsson, Fredrik & Hammar, Henrik, 2002. "Incentive-based regulation of CO2 emissions from international aviation," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 8(6), pages 365-372.
    6. Cai, Bofeng & Yang, Weishan & Cao, Dong & Liu, Lancui & Zhou, Ying & Zhang, Zhansheng, 2012. "Estimates of China's national and regional transport sector CO2 emissions in 2007," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 474-483.
    7. Staples, Mark D. & Malina, Robert & Suresh, Pooja & Hileman, James I. & Barrett, Steven R.H., 2018. "Aviation CO2 emissions reductions from the use of alternative jet fuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 342-354.
    8. Mraihi, Rafaa & ben Abdallah, Khaled & Abid, Mehdi, 2013. "Road transport-related energy consumption: Analysis of driving factors in Tunisia," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 247-253.
    9. Ang, B.W. & Liu, F.L., 2001. "A new energy decomposition method: perfect in decomposition and consistent in aggregation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 537-548.
    10. Shiqing Zhang & Jianwei Wang & Wenlong Zheng, 2018. "Decomposition Analysis of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions and Decoupling Status in China’s Logistics Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
    12. Yilmaz, Nadir & Atmanli, Alpaslan, 2017. "Sustainable alternative fuels in aviation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 140(P2), pages 1378-1386.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Shiqing Zhang & Jianwei Wang & Wenlong Zheng, 2018. "Decomposition Analysis of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions and Decoupling Status in China’s Logistics Industry," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, April.
    2. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Analysis of energy-related CO2 emissions in China’s mining industry: Evidence and policy implications," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 77-87.
    3. Md. Afzal Hossain & Jean Engo & Songsheng Chen, 2021. "The main factors behind Cameroon’s CO2 emissions before, during and after the economic crisis of the 1980s," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 4500-4520, March.
    4. Jorge Cunha & Manuel Lopes Nunes & Fátima Lima, 2018. "Discerning the factors explaining the change in energy efficiency," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 20(1), pages 163-179, December.
    5. Liang, Wei & Gan, Ting & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Dynamic evolution of characteristics and decomposition of factors influencing industrial carbon dioxide emissions in China: 1991–2015," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 93-106.
    6. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2018. "Decomposing the change in energy consumption in China's nonferrous metal industry: An empirical analysis based on the LMDI method," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 82(P3), pages 2652-2663.
    7. Xue-Ting Jiang & Min Su & Rongrong Li, 2018. "Decomposition Analysis in Electricity Sector Output from Carbon Emissions in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(9), pages 1-18, September.
    8. Linna Li, 2019. "Structure and influencing factors of CO2 emissions from transport sector in three major metropolitan regions of China: estimation and decomposition," Transportation, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 1245-1269, August.
    9. Xue-Ting Jiang & Jie-Fang Dong & Xing-Min Wang & Rong-Rong Li, 2016. "The Multilevel Index Decomposition of Energy-Related Carbon Emission and Its Decoupling with Economic Growth in USA," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(9), pages 1-16, August.
    10. Linwei Ma & Chinhao Chong & Xi Zhang & Pei Liu & Weiqi Li & Zheng Li & Weidou Ni, 2018. "LMDI Decomposition of Energy-Related CO 2 Emissions Based on Energy and CO 2 Allocation Sankey Diagrams: The Method and an Application to China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-37, January.
    11. Leal, Patrícia Alexandra & Marques, António Cardoso & Fuinhas, José Alberto, 2019. "Decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions: Decomposition analysis by sectoral factors for Australia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 12-26.
    12. Wang, Qiang & Jiang, Xue-ting & Li, Rongrong, 2017. "Comparative decoupling analysis of energy-related carbon emission from electric output of electricity sector in Shandong Province, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 78-88.
    13. Pan, Xiongfeng & Guo, Shucen & Xu, Haitao & Tian, Mengyuan & Pan, Xianyou & Chu, Junhui, 2022. "China's carbon intensity factor decomposition and carbon emission decoupling analysis," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 239(PC).
    14. Román-Collado, Rocío & Cansino, José M. & Botia, Camilo, 2018. "How far is Colombia from decoupling? Two-level decomposition analysis of energy consumption changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 687-700.
    15. Lima, Fátima & Nunes, Manuel Lopes & Cunha, Jorge & Lucena, André F.P., 2016. "A cross-country assessment of energy-related CO2 emissions: An extended Kaya Index Decomposition Approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 115(P2), pages 1361-1374.
    16. Yang Yu & Qiuyue Kong, 2017. "Analysis on the influencing factors of carbon emissions from energy consumption in China based on LMDI method," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1691-1707, September.
    17. Xiaoping Zhu & Rongrong Li, 2017. "An Analysis of Decoupling and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from the Transportation Sector in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Area, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(5), pages 1-19, April.
    18. Jie-Fang Dong & Chun Deng & Xing-Min Wang & Xiao-Lei Zhang, 2016. "Multilevel Index Decomposition of Energy-Related Carbon Emissions and Their Decoupling from Economic Growth in Northwest China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-17, August.
    19. Lingling Chen & Brijesh Thapa & Wei Yan, 2018. "The Relationship between Tourism, Carbon Dioxide Emissions, and Economic Growth in the Yangtze River Delta, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-20, June.
    20. Wang, Miao & Feng, Chao, 2017. "Decomposition of energy-related CO2 emissions in China: An empirical analysis based on provincial panel data of three sectors," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 772-787.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:138:y:2020:i:c:s0301421519307979. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.