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Where did the time (series) go? Estimation of marginal emission factors with autoregressive components

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  • Beltrami, Filippo
  • Burlinson, Andrew
  • Giulietti, Monica
  • Grossi, Luigi
  • Rowley, Paul
  • Wilson, Grant

Abstract

This paper offers a novel contribution to the literature on Marginal Emission Factors (MEF) by proposing a robust empirical methodology for their estimation across both time and space. Our Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average models with time-effects not only outperforms the established models in the economics literature but it also proves more reliable than variations adopted in the field of engineering. Utilising half-hourly data on carbon emissions and generation in Great Britain, the results allow us to identify a more stable path of MEFs than obtained with existing methodologies. We also estimate marginal emission effects over subsequent time periods (intra-day), rather than focussing only on individual settlement periods (inter-day). This allows us to evaluate the annual cycle of emissions as a result of changes in the economic and social activity which drives demand. Moreover, the reliability of our approach is further confirmed upon exploring the cross-country context. Indeed, our methodology proves reliable when applied to the case of Italy, which is characterised by a different data generation process. Crucially, we provide a more robust basis for valuing actual carbon emission reductions, especially in electricity systems with high penetration of intermittent renewable technologies.

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  • Beltrami, Filippo & Burlinson, Andrew & Giulietti, Monica & Grossi, Luigi & Rowley, Paul & Wilson, Grant, 2020. "Where did the time (series) go? Estimation of marginal emission factors with autoregressive components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:91:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320302450
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104905
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    1. Filippo Beltrami & Fulvio Fontini & Monica Giulietti & Luigi Grossi, 2022. "The Zonal and Seasonal CO2 Marginal Emissions Factors for the Italian Power Market," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(2), pages 381-411, October.
    2. Hamels, Sam & Himpe, Eline & Laverge, Jelle & Delghust, Marc & Van den Brande, Kjartan & Janssens, Arnold & Albrecht, Johan, 2021. "The use of primary energy factors and CO2 intensities for electricity in the European context - A systematic methodological review and critical evaluation of the contemporary literature," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Electricity generation; Marginal emission factors; Time series analysis; Regulation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q53 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Air Pollution; Water Pollution; Noise; Hazardous Waste; Solid Waste; Recycling

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