A techno-economic life cycle assessment of H2 fuelled and electrified urban buses

Nowadays, several technologies based on powertrain electrification and the exploitation of hydrogen represent valuable options for decarbonizing the on-road public transport sector. The considered alternatives should exhibit an effective benchmark between CO2 reduction potential and production/operational costs. Conducting a comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) analysis, coupled with a thorough Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is therefore crucial in shaping the future for cleaner urban mobility. From this perspective, this study compares different powertrain configurations for a 12 m urban bus: a conventional diesel Internal Combustion Engine Vehicle (ICEV), a series hybrid diesel, two hydrogen-based series hybrid vehicles: a Hydrogen Hybrid Electric Vehicle featuring an H2-ICE (H2-HEV) or a Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (FCEV), and a Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV). Moreover, a sensitivity analysis has been conducted on the carbon footprint for power generation, considering also the marginal electricity mix. In addition, prospective LCA and TCO elements are introduced by addressing future technological projections for the 2030 horizon. The research reveals that, as of today, the BEV and hydrogen-fueled vehicles have comparable environmental impacts when the marginal electricity mix is considered. The techno-economic analysis indicates that, under current conditions, FCEVs and H2-HEVs are not cost-effective for CO₂ reduction unless powered by renewable energy sources. However, considering future technological advancements and market evolution, FCEVs offer the most promising balance between economic and environmental benefits, particularly if hydrogen prices reach €4 per kilogram. If hydrogen-powered vehicles remain a niche market, BEVs will be the most viable option for decarbonizing the transport sector in most European countries.