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The rebound effect in the aviation sector

Author

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  • Evans, Antony
  • Schäfer, Andreas

Abstract

The rebound effect, i.e., the (partial) offset of the energy efficiency improvement potential due to a reduction in marginal usage costs and the associated increase in consumer demand, has been extensively studied for residential energy demand and automobile travel. This study presents a quantitative estimate of the rebound effect for an air traffic network including the 22 busiest airports, which serve 14 of the highest O–D cities within the domestic U.S. aviation sector. To satisfy this objective, passenger flows, aircraft operations, flight delays and the resulting energy use are simulated. Our model results indicate that the average rebound effect in this network is about 19%, for the range of aircraft fuel burn reductions considered. This is the net impact of an increase in air transportation supply to satisfy the rising passenger demand, airline operational effects that further increase supply, and the mitigating effects of an increase in flight delays. Although the magnitude of the rebound effect is small, it can be significant for a sector that has comparatively few options for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Antony & Schäfer, Andreas, 2013. "The rebound effect in the aviation sector," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 158-165.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:36:y:2013:i:c:p:158-165
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2012.12.005
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    1. Merter AKINCI, Haktan SEVİNÇ, Ömer YILMAZ, 2018. "Jevons Paradoksu: Enerji Etkinliği ve Rebound Etkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Bir Analiz," Fiscaoeconomia, Tubitak Ulakbim JournalPark (Dergipark), issue 1.
    2. Chevalier, Henri & Pineault, Eric, 2026. "Fixed capital and growth imperatives: Is commercial aviation trapped in a treadmill?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    3. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Liu, Zhao & Qin, Chang-Xiong & Tan, Tai-De, 2017. "The direct and indirect CO2 rebound effect for private cars in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 149-161.
    4. Li, Ke & Jiang, Zhujun, 2016. "The impacts of removing energy subsidies on economy-wide rebound effects in China: An input-output analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 62-72.
    5. Nehiba, Cody, 2025. "Within-day variation in the rebound effect from fuel efficiency standards and implications for road congestion," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    6. Hans Jakob Walnum & Carlo Aall & Søren Løkke, 2014. "Can Rebound Effects Explain Why Sustainable Mobility Has Not Been Achieved?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 6(12), pages 1-28, December.
    7. Li, Ke & Lin, Boqiang, 2015. "Heterogeneity in rebound effects: Estimated results and impact of China’s fossil-fuel subsidies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C), pages 148-160.
    8. Bardon, Paul & Massol, Olivier, 2025. "Decarbonizing aviation with sustainable aviation fuels: Myths and realities of the roadmaps to net zero by 2050," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    9. Zimmermann, Michel & Vöhringer, Frank & Thalmann, Philippe & Moreau, Vincent, 2021. "Do rebound effects matter for Switzerland? Assessing the effectiveness of industrial energy efficiency improvements," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Estrella Trincado & Antonio Sánchez-Bayón & José María Vindel, 2021. "The European Union Green Deal: Clean Energy Wellbeing Opportunities and the Risk of the Jevons Paradox," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-23, July.
    11. Zou, Bo & Hansen, Mark, 2014. "Flight delay impact on airfare and flight frequency: A comprehensive assessment," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 54-74.
    12. Chen, Zhongfei & Wanke, Peter & Antunes, Jorge Junio Moreira & Zhang, Ning, 2017. "Chinese airline efficiency under CO2 emissions and flight delays: A stochastic network DEA model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 89-108.
    13. Li, Ke & Zhang, Ning & Liu, Yanchu, 2016. "The energy rebound effects across China’s industrial sectors: An output distance function approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1165-1175.
    14. Paul Bardon & Olivier Massol & Arthur Thomas, 2025. "Greening aviation with sustainable aviation fuels : Insights from decarbonization scenarios," Post-Print hal-04874217, HAL.
    15. Ioannis Karagiannis & Panagiotis Vouros & Antonis Skouloudis & Konstantinos Evangelinos, 2019. "Sustainability reporting, materiality, and accountability assessment in the airport industry," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(7), pages 1370-1405, November.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • L93 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Air Transportation
    • R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion; Travel Time; Safety and Accidents; Transportation Noise
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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