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Assessing data integrity in voluntary carbon offsets using Benford’s Law

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  • Chuang, Yating
  • Liu, John Chung-En

Abstract

High-profile scandals have fueled growing doubts about the credibility of claimed emission reductions in the voluntary carbon market. Numerous studies have highlighted issues such as inflated baselines, lack of additionality, and questionable data integrity in carbon offset projects. This study uses Benford’s Law to assess the reliability of emission reduction data in the voluntary carbon market, focusing on both ex ante Estimated Emission Reductions (EERs) and the Verified Emission Reductions (VERs)—ex post credit issuances. It compares patterns across crediting programs, countries, and project types to identify potential irregularities. Nonconformity was found to be prevalent across crediting programs, project types, and countries. The findings provide insights to improve transparency and credibility in carbon offset practices.

Suggested Citation

  • Chuang, Yating & Liu, John Chung-En, 2025. "Assessing data integrity in voluntary carbon offsets using Benford’s Law," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325008515
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109021
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy
    • C18 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Methodolical Issues: General
    • M42 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Auditing
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products

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