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Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Thales A. P. West
  • Sven Wunder
  • Erin O. Sills
  • Jan Borner
  • Sami W. Rifai
  • Alexandra N. Neidermeier
  • Andreas Kontoleon

Abstract

Carbon offsets from voluntarily avoided deforestation projects are generated based on performance vis-\`a-vis ex-ante deforestation baselines. We examined the impacts of 27 forest conservation projects in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We compare the project baselines with ex-post counterfactuals based on observed deforestation in control sites. Our findings show that most projects have not reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. Methodologies for constructing deforestation baselines for carbon-offset interventions thus need urgent revisions in order to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the conservation interventions, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

Suggested Citation

  • Thales A. P. West & Sven Wunder & Erin O. Sills & Jan Borner & Sami W. Rifai & Alexandra N. Neidermeier & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation," Papers 2301.03354, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.03354
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Becker, Martin & Klößner, Stefan, 2018. "Fast and reliable computation of generalized synthetic controls," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-19.
    2. D. J. Weiss & A. Nelson & H. S. Gibson & W. Temperley & S. Peedell & A. Lieber & M. Hancher & E. Poyart & S. Belchior & N. Fullman & B. Mappin & U. Dalrymple & J. Rozier & T. C. D. Lucas & R. E. Howes, 2018. "A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015," Nature, Nature, vol. 553(7688), pages 333-336, January.
    3. Raphael Calel & Jonathan Colmer & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Matthieu Glachant, 2025. "Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-40, January.
    4. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    5. Alexis Diamond & Jasjeet S. Sekhon, 2013. "Genetic Matching for Estimating Causal Effects: A General Multivariate Matching Method for Achieving Balance in Observational Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 932-945, July.
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