IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2301.03354.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation

Author

Listed:
  • Thales A. P. West
  • Sven Wunder
  • Erin O. Sills
  • Jan Borner
  • Sami W. Rifai
  • Alexandra N. Neidermeier
  • Andreas Kontoleon

Abstract

Carbon offsets from voluntarily avoided deforestation projects are generated based on performance vis-\`a-vis ex-ante deforestation baselines. We examined the impacts of 27 forest conservation projects in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We compare the project baselines with ex-post counterfactuals based on observed deforestation in control sites. Our findings show that most projects have not reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. Methodologies for constructing deforestation baselines for carbon-offset interventions thus need urgent revisions in order to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the conservation interventions, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

Suggested Citation

  • Thales A. P. West & Sven Wunder & Erin O. Sills & Jan Borner & Sami W. Rifai & Alexandra N. Neidermeier & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation," Papers 2301.03354, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.03354
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2301.03354
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Calel, Raphael & Colmer, Jonathan & Dechezlepretre, Antoine & Glachant, Matthieu, 2021. "Do carbon offsets offset carbon?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 113849, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    2. D. J. Weiss & A. Nelson & H. S. Gibson & W. Temperley & S. Peedell & A. Lieber & M. Hancher & E. Poyart & S. Belchior & N. Fullman & B. Mappin & U. Dalrymple & J. Rozier & T. C. D. Lucas & R. E. Howes, 2018. "A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015," Nature, Nature, vol. 553(7688), pages 333-336, January.
    3. Becker, Martin & Klößner, Stefan, 2018. "Fast and reliable computation of generalized synthetic controls," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Alexis Diamond & Jasjeet S. Sekhon, 2013. "Genetic Matching for Estimating Causal Effects: A General Multivariate Matching Method for Achieving Balance in Observational Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 932-945, July.
    5. Alberto Abadie, 2021. "Using Synthetic Controls: Feasibility, Data Requirements, and Methodological Aspects," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 391-425, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ottmar Edenhofer & Max Franks & Matthias Kalkuhl & Artur Runge-Metzger, 2023. "On the Governance of Carbon Dioxide Removal – A Public Economics Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 10370, CESifo.
    2. Ellie-Anne Jones & Lisa Paige & Albany Smith & Annabelle Worth & Lois Betts & Richard Stafford, 2024. "Potential for Carbon Credits from Conservation Management: Price and Potential for Multi-Habitat Nature-Based Carbon Sequestration in Dorset, UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-12, February.
    3. Andreas A. Haupt & Nicole Immorlica & Brendan Lucier, 2023. "Certification Design for a Competitive Market," Papers 2301.13449, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Echevarría, Cruz A. & Hasancebi, Serhat & García-Enríquez, Javier, 2022. "Economic Effects of Macao’s Integration with Mainland China: A Causal Inference Study," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 37(2), pages 179-215.
    2. David Gilchrist & Thomas Emery & Nuno Garoupa & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Synthetic Control Method: A tool for comparative case studies in economic history," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 409-445, April.
    3. Lucke, Bernd, 2022. "Growth Effects of European Monetary Union: A Synthetic Control Approach," MPRA Paper 115373, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Chiara Natalie Focacci & Mitja Kovac & Rok Spruk, 2022. "The perils of Kremlin's influence: evidence from Ukraine," Papers 2206.04950, arXiv.org.
    5. Petar Soric, 2024. "The euro and inflation in Croatia: much ado about nothing?," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 48(1), pages 1-37.
    6. Manuel Funke & Moritz Schularick & Christoph Trebesch, 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(12), pages 3249-3288, December.
    7. Maximiliano Marzetti & Rok Spruk, 2023. "Long-Term Economic Effects of Populist Legal Reforms: Evidence from Argentina," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 65(1), pages 60-95, March.
    8. Chuku Chuku & Mustafa Yasin Yenice, 2021. "Working Paper 356 - Eurobonds, debt sustainability and macroeconomic performance in Africa: Synthetic controlled experiments," Working Paper Series 2482, African Development Bank.
    9. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Juan Camilo Restrepo Salazar, 2016. "El papel de la infraestructura rural en el desarrollo agrícola en Colombia," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, vol. 46(1), pages 107-147, June.
    10. Giacomo Falchetta & Nicolò Stevanato & Magda Moner-Girona & Davide Mazzoni & Emanuela Colombo & Manfred Hafner, 2020. "M-LED: Multi-sectoral Latent Electricity Demand Assessment for Energy Access Planning," Working Papers 2020.09, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    11. Sadeghi, Ali & Kibler, Ewald, 2022. "Do bankruptcy laws matter for entrepreneurship? A Synthetic Control Method analysis of a bankruptcy reform in Finland," Journal of Business Venturing Insights, Elsevier, vol. 18(C).
    12. Dennis Shen & Peng Ding & Jasjeet Sekhon & Bin Yu, 2022. "Same Root Different Leaves: Time Series and Cross-Sectional Methods in Panel Data," Papers 2207.14481, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2022.
    13. Tymon Słoczyński, 2015. "The Oaxaca–Blinder Unexplained Component as a Treatment Effects Estimator," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 77(4), pages 588-604, August.
    14. Junghwan Kim & Mei-Po Kwan, 2018. "Beyond Commuting: Ignoring Individuals’ Activity-Travel Patterns May Lead to Inaccurate Assessments of Their Exposure to Traffic Congestion," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, December.
    15. Andre Python & Andreas Bender & Marta Blangiardo & Janine B. Illian & Ying Lin & Baoli Liu & Tim C.D. Lucas & Siwei Tan & Yingying Wen & Davit Svanidze & Jianwei Yin, 2022. "A downscaling approach to compare COVID‐19 count data from databases aggregated at different spatial scales," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 185(1), pages 202-218, January.
    16. Antoine Leblois, 2021. "Mitigating the impact of bad rainy seasons in poor agricultural regions to tackle deforestation," Post-Print hal-03111007, HAL.
    17. César Martinelli & Marco Vega, 2019. "The Economic Legacy of General Velasco: Long-Term Consequences of Interventionism," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 42(84), pages 102-133.
    18. Jaraitė, Jūratė & Kurtyka, Oliwia & Ollivier, Hélène, 2022. "Take a ride on the (not so) green side: How do CDM projects affect Indian manufacturing firms’ environmental performance?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    19. Pavlik, Jamie Bologna & Jahan, Israt & Young, Andrew T., 2023. "Do longer constitutions corrupt?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    20. Runst, Petrik & Höhle, David, 2022. "The German eco tax and its impact on CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.03354. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.