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Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation

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Listed:
  • Thales A. P. West
  • Sven Wunder
  • Erin O. Sills
  • Jan Borner
  • Sami W. Rifai
  • Alexandra N. Neidermeier
  • Andreas Kontoleon

Abstract

Carbon offsets from voluntarily avoided deforestation projects are generated based on performance vis-\`a-vis ex-ante deforestation baselines. We examined the impacts of 27 forest conservation projects in six countries on three continents using synthetic control methods for causal inference. We compare the project baselines with ex-post counterfactuals based on observed deforestation in control sites. Our findings show that most projects have not reduced deforestation. For projects that did, reductions were substantially lower than claimed. Methodologies for constructing deforestation baselines for carbon-offset interventions thus need urgent revisions in order to correctly attribute reduced deforestation to the conservation interventions, thus maintaining both incentives for forest conservation and the integrity of global carbon accounting.

Suggested Citation

  • Thales A. P. West & Sven Wunder & Erin O. Sills & Jan Borner & Sami W. Rifai & Alexandra N. Neidermeier & Andreas Kontoleon, 2023. "Action needed to make carbon offsets from tropical forest conservation work for climate change mitigation," Papers 2301.03354, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2301.03354
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Raphael Calel & Jonathan Colmer & Antoine Dechezleprêtre & Matthieu Glachant, 2025. "Do Carbon Offsets Offset Carbon?," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 1-40, January.
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    3. Becker, Martin & Klößner, Stefan, 2018. "Fast and reliable computation of generalized synthetic controls," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 1-19.
    4. Alexis Diamond & Jasjeet S. Sekhon, 2013. "Genetic Matching for Estimating Causal Effects: A General Multivariate Matching Method for Achieving Balance in Observational Studies," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(3), pages 932-945, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Barbier, Edward B., 2025. "Greening agriculture for rural development," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    2. Ottmar Edenhofer & Max Franks & Matthias Kalkuhl & Artur Runge-Metzger, 2023. "On the Governance of Carbon Dioxide Removal – A Public Economics Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 10370, CESifo.
    3. Ben Groom & Frank Venmans, 2025. "The Social Value of Temporary Carbon Removals and Delayed Emissions," Environmental and Energy Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 6(1), pages 169-212.
    4. Crepin, Léa, 2024. "Do forest conservation policies undermine the soybean sector in the Brazilian Amazon? Evidence from the priority listing of municipalities," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 224(C).
    5. Flammer, Caroline & Giroux, Thomas & Heal, Geoffrey M., 2025. "Biodiversity finance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    6. Mark M. Akrofi, 2025. "Green hotspots? Unveiling global hotspots and shifting trends in carbon credit projects," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(2), pages 1782-1796, April.
    7. West, Thales A.P., 2024. "Formal designation of Brazilian indigenous lands linked to small but consistent reductions in deforestation," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    8. N. K. Kurichev & A. V. Ptichnikov & E. A. Shvarts & A. N. Krenke, 2023. "Nature-Based Offsets in Russia: Key Challenges and Conditions for Success," Regional Research of Russia, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 595-608, December.
    9. John Talberth & Ella Carlson, 2025. "Forest carbon tax and reward: regulating greenhouse gas emissions from industrial logging and deforestation in the US," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 27(6), pages 14913-14934, June.
    10. Ovando, Paola & Castellazzi, Marie & Baggio-Compagnucci, Andrea & Hewitt, Richard J. & Gimona, Alessandro, 2025. "Feasibility of woodland expansion for carbon offsetting in Scotland revisited," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    11. Klimašauskaitė, Aistė & Drivdal, Laura Elisabet & Larsen, Håkon & Nedelciu, Claudiu Eduard, 2024. "Could deep-sea mining sustain sustainability? The international seabed authority and the UN 2030 agenda," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    12. Ellie-Anne Jones & Lisa Paige & Albany Smith & Annabelle Worth & Lois Betts & Richard Stafford, 2024. "Potential for Carbon Credits from Conservation Management: Price and Potential for Multi-Habitat Nature-Based Carbon Sequestration in Dorset, UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-12, February.
    13. Pone Salimath & Raeyeong Kim & Jewel Andoh & Yohan Lee & Jae Bong Chang, 2024. "Factors Influencing Forest Resource Conservation Behavior of the Youth in Northern Uplands, Lao People’s Democratic Republic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(24), pages 1-20, December.
    14. Gareth Fearn, 2024. "Planning incapacitated: Environmental planning and the political ecology of austerity," Environment and Planning A, , vol. 56(5), pages 1401-1419, August.
    15. Nyonho O. & Daniela A Miteva & Yehchan Lee, 2023. "Impact of Korea’s emissions trading scheme on publicly traded firms," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(5), pages 1-21, May.
    16. Andreas A. Haupt & Nicole Immorlica & Brendan Lucier, 2023. "Certification Design for a Competitive Market," Papers 2301.13449, arXiv.org.
    17. Thales A. P. West & Jill L. Caviglia-Harris & Philip Martin Fearnside, 2025. "Additionality in Theoretical von Thünenian Models of Deforestation and Conservation Payments," Land, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-9, January.

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