IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v141y2025ics0140988324008338.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dual-credit policy failure: The emergence principle and hedging mechanisms

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Jing
  • Wang, Yushi
  • Xu, Yangyi
  • Shi, Jingyi

Abstract

To achieve the emission reduction targets by different countries and regions, it is crucial to accelerate the emission reduction process in the automotive industry. Evaluating the effectiveness of China's Dual-credit policy (DCP) and exploring its potential risks of failure are crucial for enhancing policy efficacy and ensuring sustainable NEV development. Adopting the agent-based modeling (ABM) method, this paper observes the effect of the dual-credit policy, incorporating the technology and economy objectives. This study investigates the reasons behind the failure of the DCP and proposes a hedging mechanism to mitigate this issue. Key findings from the results include: (1) The current DCP has a 70 % probability of failing to meet both economic and technical criteria. (2) The disparity between new energy vehicle (NEV) automakers and fuel vehicle (FV) automakers in the market results in credit prices that are lower than anticipated, the DCP failed due to the decrease in profits and production capacity of NEV automakers because of the low price of credit. (3) Under the hedging mechanism, the probability of the DCP failing to meet both economic and technical criteria is reduced to 5 %. This paper provides theoretical support for policymakers to adjust the DCP.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Jing & Wang, Yushi & Xu, Yangyi & Shi, Jingyi, 2025. "Dual-credit policy failure: The emergence principle and hedging mechanisms," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:141:y:2025:i:c:s0140988324008338
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108124
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988324008338
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2024.108124?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abrell, Jan & Kosch, Mirjam & Rausch, Sebastian, 2022. "How effective is carbon pricing?—A machine learning approach to policy evaluation," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    2. Kiss, Tibor & Popovics, Steve, 2021. "Evaluation on the effectiveness of energy policies – Evidence from the carbon reductions in 25 countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    3. Xu, Zirui & Li, Ying & Li, Feifan, 2024. "Electric vehicle supply chain under dual-credit and subsidy policies: Technology innovation, infrastructure construction and coordination," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    4. Newbery, D., 2023. "High renewable electricity penetration: marginal curtailment and market failure under "subsidy-free" entry," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2353, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    5. Wu, Fulan & Li, Pei & Dong, Xuebing & Lu, Yuanzhu, 2022. "Exploring the effectiveness of China's dual credit policy in a differentiated automobile market when some consumers are environmentally aware," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    6. Xie, Yunkun & Li, Yangyang & Zhao, Zhichao & Dong, Hao & Wang, Shuqian & Liu, Jingping & Guan, Jinhuan & Duan, Xiongbo, 2020. "Microsimulation of electric vehicle energy consumption and driving range," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 267(C).
    7. David Newbery, 2023. "High renewable electricity penetration: marginal curtailment and market failure under "subsidy-free" entry," Working Papers EPRG2319, Energy Policy Research Group, Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    8. Sokołowski, Maciej M. & Heffron, Raphael J., 2022. "Defining and conceptualising energy policy failure: The when, where, why, and how," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    9. Jin, Tao & Jiang, Yulian & Liu, Xingwen, 2023. "Evolutionary game analysis of the impact of dynamic dual credit policy on new energy vehicles after subsidy cancellation," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 440(C).
    10. Benjamin, Emmanuel O. & Hall, Daniel & Sauer, Johannes & Buchenrieder, Gertrud, 2022. "Are carbon pricing policies on a path to failure in resource-dependent economies? A willingness-to-pay case study of Canada," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Ma, Miaomiao & Meng, Weidong & Huang, Bo & Li, Yuyu, 2023. "The influence of dual credit policy on new energy vehicle technology innovation under demand forecast information asymmetry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 271(C).
    12. Ou, Shiqi & Lin, Zhenhong & Qi, Liang & Li, Jie & He, Xin & Przesmitzki, Steven, 2018. "The dual-credit policy: Quantifying the policy impact on plug-in electric vehicle sales and industry profits in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 597-610.
    13. Jia, Tingwen & Li, Chengjiang & Wang, Honglei & Hu, Yu-jie & Wang, Shiyuan & Xu, Guoteng & Hoang, Anh Tuan, 2024. "Subsidy policy or dual-credit policy? Evolutionary game analysis of green methanol vehicles promotion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    14. Ma, Miaomiao & Meng, Weidong & Li, Yuyu & Huang, Bo, 2023. "Impact of dual credit policy on new energy vehicles technology innovation with information asymmetry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).
    15. Perni, Ángel & Barreiro-Hurlé, Jesús & Martínez-Paz, José Miguel, 2020. "When policy implementation failures affect public preferences for environmental goods: Implications for economic analysis in the European water policy," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
    16. Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hirth, Lion & Knopf, Brigitte & Pahle, Michael & Schlömer, Steffen & Schmid, Eva & Ueckerdt, Falko, 2013. "On the economics of renewable energy sources," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(S1), pages 12-23.
    17. Yu, Yi & Zhou, Dequn & Zha, Donglan & Wang, Qunwei & Zhu, Qingyuan, 2021. "Optimal production and pricing strategies in auto supply chain when dual credit policy is substituted for subsidy policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    18. Newbery, David M., 2023. "High renewable electricity penetration: Marginal curtailment and market failure under “subsidy-free” entry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhen Chen & Ming-Ting Chen & Shu-Wei Jia, 2025. "Simulation and Optimization of New Energy Vehicles Promotion Policy Strategies Considering Energy Saving, Carbon Reduction, and Consumers’ Willingness Based on System Dynamics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 17(7), pages 1-23, March.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Xu, Zirui & Li, Ying & Li, Feifan, 2024. "Electric vehicle supply chain under dual-credit and subsidy policies: Technology innovation, infrastructure construction and coordination," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 195(C).
    2. Simshauser, Paul & Newbery, David, 2024. "Non-firm vs priority access: On the long run average and marginal costs of renewables in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Yi, Yongxi & Zhang, Meng & Zhang, Aoxiang & Li, Yuqiong, 2024. "Can “dual credit” replace “subsidies” successfully? -based on analysis of vehicle supply chain decisions under the digital transformation of technology," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    4. Yu, Hui & Li, Ying & Wang, Wei, 2023. "Optimal innovation strategies of automakers with market competition under the dual-credit policy," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 283(C).
    5. Tourgeman, Miriam & Cohen, Chen & Rubin, Ofir, 2024. "Preserving competition and economic welfare in Israel's PV market," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Davi-Arderius, Daniel & Jamasb, Tooraj, 2024. "Measuring a Paradox: Zero-negative Electricity Prices," Working Papers 13-2024, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    7. Simshauser, P. & Gohde, N., 2024. "3-Party Covenant Financing of 'Semi-Regulated' Pumped Hydro Assets," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2425, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    8. Simshauser, Paul, 2025. "Competition vs. coordination: Optimising wind, solar and batteries in renewable energy zones," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    9. Qiao, Qiao & Zeng, Xianhai & Lin, Boqiang, 2024. "Mitigating wind curtailment risk in China: The impact of subsidy reduction policy," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    10. Milstein, I. & Tishler, A. & Woo, C.K., 2024. "The effect of PV generation's hourly variations on Israel's solar investment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    11. Hassanzadeh Moghimi, Farzad & Boomsma, Trine K. & Siddiqui, Afzal S., 2024. "Transmission planning in an imperfectly competitive power sector with environmental externalities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    12. Daniel Navia Simon & Laura Diaz Anadon, 2025. "Power price stability and the insurance value of renewable technologies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 10(3), pages 329-341, March.
    13. Zhao, Dan & Wang, Jian & Li, Ye-kai & Tang, Jin-huan & Zhang, Shui-wang, 2024. "How to promote the transition of fuel vehicle enterprises under dual credit policy? An improved tripartite evolutionary game analysis with time delay," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    14. Veenstra, Arjen T. & Mulder, Machiel, 2024. "Impact of Contracts for Differences for non-carbon electricity generation on efficiency of electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    15. Junchong Pu, 2024. "The optimal decision for automobile enterprises considering shareholding strategies and dual‐credit policy," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 45(1), pages 80-97, January.
    16. Jia, Tingwen & Li, Chengjiang & Wang, Honglei & Hu, Yu-jie & Wang, Shiyuan & Xu, Guoteng & Hoang, Anh Tuan, 2024. "Subsidy policy or dual-credit policy? Evolutionary game analysis of green methanol vehicles promotion," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 293(C).
    17. Chen, Feng & Wu, Bin & Lou, Wen-qian & Zhu, Bo-wen, 2024. "Impact of dual-credit policy on diffusion of technology R & D among automakers: Based on an evolutionary game model with technology-spillover in complex network," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 303(C).
    18. Liangui Peng & Ying Li & Hui Yu, 2021. "Effects of Dual Credit Policy and Consumer Preferences on Production Decisions in Automobile Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, May.
    19. Dong-Xiao Yang & Lei Yang & Xiao-Ling Chen & Chan Wang & Pu-Yan Nie, 2023. "Research on credit pricing mechanism in dual-credit policy: is the government in charge or is the market in charge?," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 1561-1581, February.
    20. Ma, Miaomiao & Meng, Weidong & Li, Yuyu & Huang, Bo, 2023. "Impact of dual credit policy on new energy vehicles technology innovation with information asymmetry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 332(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:141:y:2025:i:c:s0140988324008338. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.