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The rebound effect of solar panel adoption: Evidence from Dutch households

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  • Aydın, Erdal
  • Brounen, Dirk
  • Ergün, Ahmet

Abstract

Households adopt solar panels for different reasons, but usually with a reduced electricity bill in mind. However, the access to solar power at near zero marginal costs may well induce rebound effects which shift households’ demand curve and distort the net effects of solar PV investments. By analyzing high frequency data on household electricity consumption and production, we document solar PV rebound effect of 7.7 percent, a result that is robust to different sample and model specifications. We also find that households shift their consumption to the time periods when solar electricity production is higher. The solar PV rebound effect shows heterogeneity across time and production level, with higher rebound effects during seasons characterized by higher solar irradiance.

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  • Aydın, Erdal & Brounen, Dirk & Ergün, Ahmet, 2023. "The rebound effect of solar panel adoption: Evidence from Dutch households," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:120:y:2023:i:c:s0140988323001433
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2023.106645
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    Cited by:

    1. Abajian, Alexander & Pretnar, Nick, 2024. "Subsidies for close substitutes: Aggregate demand for residential solar electricity," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    2. Luka Budin & Ninoslav Holjevac & Matija Zidar & Marko Delimar, 2023. "PV Sizing and Investment Support Tool for Household Installations: A Case Study for Croatia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-21, August.
    3. Acurio Vásconez, Verónica & Pereira Henriques, Mónica, 2025. "Unraveling the interplay of substitution elasticities and the green energy rebound effect," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 717-725.
    4. Oliver, Matthew E. & Chapman, Oliver & Grijalva, Santiago & Matisoff, Daniel C. & Ramadhani, Maghfira & West, Amanda, 2026. "Managing zero-marginal-cost, intermittent renewable energy: A survey of the engineering, economic, and policy challenges," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 226(PC).
    5. Piazza, Lucia & Pietro Colelli, Francesco & Pasut, Wilmer & De Cian, Enrica, 2025. "How do domestic solar PV users respond to price and temperature shocks? Evidence from Italy between 2021–2022," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    6. Rydehell, Hanna & Lantz, Björn & Mignon, Ingrid & Lindahl, Johan, 2024. "The impact of solar PV subsidies on investment over time - the case of Sweden," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. John List & Ioannis Pragidis & Michael Price, 2024. "Toward an Understanding of the Economics of Prosumers: Evidence from a Natural Field Experiment in Energy," Natural Field Experiments 00791, The Field Experiments Website.
    8. Verónica Acurio Vásconez & Mónica Pereira Henriques, 2025. "Unraveling the Interplay of Substitution Elasticities and the Green Energy Rebound Effect," Working Papers of BETA 2025-12, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    9. Masciandaro, Carlotta & Mulder, Machiel & Kesina, Michaela, 2025. "Distributional effects of the Dutch net-metering scheme for residential solar panels," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    10. Lia Marchi & Jacopo Gaspari, 2023. "Energy Conservation at Home: A Critical Review on the Role of End-User Behavior," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(22), pages 1-22, November.
    11. Liu, Diyi & Zou, Hongyang & Qiu, Yueming & Du, Huibin, 2024. "Consumer reaction to green subsidy phase-out in China: Evidence from the household photovoltaic industry," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    12. Attiya, Wael M. & Shams, Mohamed Bin & Alabbasi, Abdulla, 2026. "Cash transfers and electricity subsidy reform: Unlocking rooftop solar adoption in subsidized energy markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 209(PA).
    13. Matthew E. Oliver & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Kenneth T. Gillingham, 2025. "Microeconomics of the Solar Rebound Under Net Metering," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 12(5), pages 1317-1353.
    14. Nathanael Johnson & Torsten Reimer, 2023. "Using the social identity model of pro-environmental behavior to predict support for the adoption of solar panels," Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, Springer;Association of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 13(4), pages 587-601, December.
    15. Bigler, Patrick, 2025. "Magnitude and decomposition of the solar rebound: Evidence from Swiss households," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • R20 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - General

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