IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v9y2002i1p1-34.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Stock selection, style rotation, and risk

Author

Listed:
  • Lucas, Andre
  • van Dijk, Ronald
  • Kloek, Teun

Abstract

Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specificcharacteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably overtime. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation ispartially predictable. We investigate whether the partial predictability signals security mispricing orrisk compensation by formulating alternative modeling strategies. The strategies are comparedempirically, In particular, we allow for a state-dependent choice of investment styles rather than aonce-and-for-all choice for a particular style, for example based on high book-to-price ratios orsmall market cap values. Using alternative ways to correct for risk, we find significant and robustexcess returns to style rotating investment strategies. Business cycle oriented approaches exhibitthe best overall performance. Purely statistical models for style rotation or fixed investment stylesreveal less robust behavior.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas, Andre & van Dijk, Ronald & Kloek, Teun, 2002. "Stock selection, style rotation, and risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:9:y:2002:i:1:p:1-34
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927-5398(01)00043-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. " The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    2. Lakonishok, Josef & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1994. " Contrarian Investment, Extrapolation, and Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 49(5), pages 1541-1578, December.
    3. He, Jia, et al, 1996. " Tests of the Relations among Marketwide Factors, Firm-Specific Variables, and Stock Returns Using a Conditional Asset Pricing Model," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1891-1908, December.
    4. Jensen, Gerald R. & Mercer, Jeffrey M. & Johnson, Robert R., 1996. "Business conditions, monetary policy, and expected security returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 213-237, February.
    5. repec:mes:challe:v:35:y:1992:i:4:p:51-53 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Daniel, Kent & Titman, Sheridan, 1997. " Evidence on the Characteristics of Cross Sectional Variation in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 1-33, March.
    7. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    8. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "Data-Snooping Biases in Tests of Financial Asset Pricing Models," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(3), pages 431-467.
    9. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-1228, September.
    10. Lewellen, Jonathan, 1999. "The time-series relations among expected return, risk, and book-to-market," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 5-43, October.
    11. Schwert, G William, 1990. " Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1237-1257, September.
    12. Phillips, P.C.B., 1991. "A Shortcut to LAD Estimator Asymptotics," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 450-463, December.
    13. Chen, Nai-Fu, 1991. " Financial Investment Opportunities and the Macroeconomy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 529-554, June.
    14. Chen, Nai-Fu & Roll, Richard & Ross, Stephen A, 1986. "Economic Forces and the Stock Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(3), pages 383-403, July.
    15. repec:hrv:faseco:30721347 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Rosenberg, Barr, 1974. "Extra-Market Components of Covariance in Security Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(02), pages 263-274, March.
    17. La Porta, Rafael, 1996. " Expectations and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1715-1742, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bauer, Rob & Derwall, Jeroen & Molenaar, Roderick, 2004. "The real-time predictability of the size and value premium in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 503-523, November.
    2. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, A. Mansur. M., 2015. "Combining momentum, value, and quality for the Islamic equity portfolio: Multi-style rotation strategies using augmented Black Litterman factor model," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 205-232.
    3. Georgi Nalbantov & Rob Bauer & Ida Sprinkhuizen-Kuyper, 2006. "Equity style timing using support vector regressions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1095-1111.
    4. Thorsten Hock, 2010. "Tactical Size Rotation in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(III), pages 553-576, September.
    5. Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen, 2006. "The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(3), pages 309-337, September.
    6. Chen, Hsiu-Lang & De Bondt, Werner, 2004. "Style momentum within the S&P-500 index," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 483-507, September.
    7. Chao, Hsiao-Ying & Collver, Charles & Limthanakom, Natcha, 2012. "Global style momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-333.
    8. Ardia, David & Boudt, Kris & Wauters, Marjan, 2016. "The economic benefits of market timing the style allocation of characteristic-based portfolios," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 38-62.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:9:y:2002:i:1:p:1-34. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.