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Stock selection, style rotation, and risk

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  • Lucas, Andre
  • van Dijk, Ronald
  • Kloek, Teun

Abstract

Using US data from June 1984 to July 1999, we show that the impact of firm-specificcharacteristics like size and book-to-price on future excess stock returns varies considerably overtime. The impact can be either positive or negative at different times. This time variation ispartially predictable. We investigate whether the partial predictability signals security mispricing orrisk compensation by formulating alternative modeling strategies. The strategies are comparedempirically, In particular, we allow for a state-dependent choice of investment styles rather than aonce-and-for-all choice for a particular style, for example based on high book-to-price ratios orsmall market cap values. Using alternative ways to correct for risk, we find significant and robustexcess returns to style rotating investment strategies. Business cycle oriented approaches exhibitthe best overall performance. Purely statistical models for style rotation or fixed investment stylesreveal less robust behavior.
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  • Lucas, Andre & van Dijk, Ronald & Kloek, Teun, 2002. "Stock selection, style rotation, and risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 1-34, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:9:y:2002:i:1:p:1-34
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    1. Bauer, Rob & Derwall, Jeroen & Molenaar, Roderick, 2004. "The real-time predictability of the size and value premium in Japan," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 503-523, November.
    2. Dewandaru, Ginanjar & Masih, Rumi & Bacha, Obiyathulla Ismath & Masih, A. Mansur. M., 2015. "Combining momentum, value, and quality for the Islamic equity portfolio: Multi-style rotation strategies using augmented Black Litterman factor model," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 205-232.
    3. Golam Sarwar & Cesario Mateus & Natasa Todorovic, 2017. "A tale of two states: asymmetries in the UK small, value and momentum premiums," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 456-476, January.
    4. Georgi Nalbantov & Rob Bauer & Ida Sprinkhuizen-Kuyper, 2006. "Equity style timing using support vector regressions," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(15), pages 1095-1111.
    5. Thorsten Hock, 2010. "Tactical Size Rotation in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(III), pages 553-576, September.
    6. Chou, Pin-Huang & Ko, Kuan-Cheng & Yang, Nien-Tzu, 2019. "Asset growth, style investing, and momentum," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 108-124.
    7. Manuel Ammann & Michael Verhofen, 2006. "The Effect of Market Regimes on Style Allocation," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 20(3), pages 309-337, September.
    8. Wolfgang Drobetz & Rebekka Haller & Christian Jasperneite & Tizian Otto, 2019. "Predictability and the cross section of expected returns: evidence from the European stock market," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 20(7), pages 508-533, December.
    9. Chen, Hsiu-Lang & De Bondt, Werner, 2004. "Style momentum within the S&P-500 index," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 483-507, September.
    10. Chao, Hsiao-Ying & Collver, Charles & Limthanakom, Natcha, 2012. "Global style momentum," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 319-333.
    11. Ardia, David & Boudt, Kris & Wauters, Marjan, 2016. "The economic benefits of market timing the style allocation of characteristic-based portfolios," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 38-62.

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