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Empirical market microstructure: An analysis of the BRL/US$ exchange rate market

  • Laurini, Márcio Poletti
  • Furlani, Luiz Gustavo Cassilatti
  • Portugal, Marcelo Savino

This article provides an analysis of empirical microstructure for the BRL/US$ exchange rate market using high-frequency bid and ask quote data. The aims of the article are to verify the importance of the presence of asymmetric information in price dynamics, to build a model for the price discovery process and to analyze the empirical determinants of the spread between bid and ask through a conditional model that captures an asymmetric response to the spread regarding past information. The asymmetric information hypothesis is tested through a nonparametric test of conditional independence for the Markov property. A model for price discovery is built using a vector error correction between bid and ask, controlling for duration and volatility. As a result of this vector, we build an equilibrium spread deviation series, and we show that the conditional distribution of equilibrium spread deviations responds asymmetrically to the spread changes and expected conditional volatilities and durations. This is made by using the quantilogram and a quantile autoregression as tools for modeling the asymmetry effects. We relate the findings to some facts presented in the theoretical literature on market microstructure.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Emerging Markets Review.

Volume (Year): 9 (2008)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
Pages: 247-265

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ememar:v:9:y:2008:i:4:p:247-265
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620356

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  1. Harrison, J. Michael & Kreps, David M., 1979. "Martingales and arbitrage in multiperiod securities markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 381-408, June.
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  3. Bingcheng Yan & Eric Zivot, 2003. "Analysis of High-Frequency Financial Data with S-PLUS," Working Papers UWEC-2005-03, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
  4. Fernandes, M. & Grammig, J., 2000. "Non-Parametric Specification Tests for Conditional Duration Models," Economics Working Papers eco2000/4, European University Institute.
  5. Robert F. Engle, 1996. "The Econometrics of Ultra-High Frequency Data," NBER Working Papers 5816, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Luc Bauwens & Pierre Giot & Joachim Grammig & David Veredas, 2000. "A Comparison of Financial Duration Models via Density Forecasts," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0810, Econometric Society.
  7. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1988. "Trades, quotes, inventories, and information," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 229-252, December.
  8. Amaro de Matos, Joao & Fernandes, Marcelo, 2007. "Testing the Markov property with high frequency data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 44-64, November.
  9. Dufour, Alfonso & Engle, Robert F, 1999. "Time and the Price Impact of a Trade," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt62c0h04j, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
  10. Robert Engle & Simone Manganelli, 2000. "CAViaR: Conditional Autoregressive Value at Risk by Regression Quantiles," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0841, Econometric Society.
  11. Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2003. "A family of autoregressive conditional duration models," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 501, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  12. Hasbrouck, Joel, 1991. " Measuring the Information Content of Stock Trades," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(1), pages 179-207, March.
  13. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
  14. Linton, O. & Whang, Yoon-Jae, 2007. "The quantilogram: With an application to evaluating directional predictability," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 250-282, November.
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  16. Mark D. Flood, 1993. "Market structure and inefficiency in the foreign exchange market," Working Papers 1991-001, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  17. Easley, David & O'Hara, Maureen, 1987. "Price, trade size, and information in securities markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 69-90, September.
  18. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
  19. Lawrence R. Glosten & Paul R. Milgrom, 1983. "Bid, Ask and Transaction Prices in a Specialist Market with Heterogeneously Informed Traders," Discussion Papers 570, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  20. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
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