Dynamic journeying under uncertainty
We introduce a journey planning problem in multi-modal transportation networks under uncertainty. The goal is to find a journey, possibly involving transfers between different transport services, from a given origin to a given destination within a specified time horizon. Due to uncertainty in travel times, the arrival times of transport services at public transport stops are modeled as random variables. If a transfer between two services is rendered unsuccessful, the commuter has to reconsider the remaining path to the destination. The problem is modeled as a Markov decision process in which states are defined as paths in the transport network. The main contribution is a backward induction method that generates an optimal policy for traversing the public transport network in terms of maximizing the probability of reaching the destination in time. By assuming history independence and independence of successful transfers between services we obtain approximate methods for the same problem. Analysis and numerical experiments suggest that while solving the path dependent model requires the enumeration of all paths from the origin to the destination, the proposed approximations may be useful for practical purposes due to their computational simplicity. In addition to on-time arrival probability, we show how travel and overdue costs can be taken into account, making the model applicable to freight transportation problems.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Androutsopoulos, Konstantinos N. & Zografos, Konstantinos G., 2009. "Solving the multi-criteria time-dependent routing and scheduling problem in a multimodal fixed scheduled network," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 18-28, January.
- Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010.
"The value of reliability,"
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,
Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
- Wong, S. C. & Tong, C. O., 1998. "Estimation of time-dependent origin-destination matrices for transit networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 35-48, January.
- Davies, Cedric & Lingras, Pawan, 2003. "Genetic algorithms for rerouting shortest paths in dynamic and stochastic networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 27-38, January.
- Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2003.
"Valuing Time and Reliability: Assessing the Evidence from Road Pricing Demonstrations,"
University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers
qt95z0p35k, University of California Transportation Center.
- Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May.
- Fu, Liping & Rilett, L. R., 1998. "Expected shortest paths in dynamic and stochastic traffic networks," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(7), pages 499-516, September.
- Azaron, Amir & Kianfar, Farhad, 2003. "Dynamic shortest path in stochastic dynamic networks: Ship routing problem," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 138-156, January.
- Thomas, Barrett W. & White III, Chelsea C., 2007. "The dynamic shortest path problem with anticipation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 176(2), pages 836-854, January.
- Murthy, Ishwar & Sarkar, Sumit, 1997. "Exact algorithms for the stochastic shortest path problem with a decreasing deadline utility function," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(1), pages 209-229, November.
- Ziliaskopoulos, Athanasios & Wardell, Whitney, 2000. "An intermodal optimum path algorithm for multimodal networks with dynamic arc travel times and switching delays," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 125(3), pages 486-502, September.
- Chiang, Yu-Sheng & O. Roberts, Paul, 1980. "A note on transit time and reliability for regular-route trucking," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 59-65.
- Nie, Yu (Marco) & Wu, Xing, 2009. "Shortest path problem considering on-time arrival probability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 43(6), pages 597-613, July.
- Jonathan F. Bard & James E. Bennett, 1991. "Arc Reduction and Path Preference in Stochastic Acyclic Networks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 37(2), pages 198-215, February.
- Kenneth A. Small & Clifford Winston & Jia Yan, 2005. "Uncovering the Distribution of Motorists' Preferences for Travel Time and Reliability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(4), pages 1367-1382, 07.
- Modesti, Paola & Sciomachen, Anna, 1998. "A utility measure for finding multiobjective shortest paths in urban multimodal transportation networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 111(3), pages 495-508, December.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:225:y:2013:i:3:p:455-471. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.