IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ejores/v195y2009i2p613-627.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Living with influenza: Impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions

Author

Listed:
  • Nigmatulina, Karima R.
  • Larson, Richard C.

Abstract

Focusing on mitigation strategies for global pandemic influenza, we use elementary mathematical models to evaluate the implementation and timing of non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies such as travel restrictions, social distancing and improved hygiene. A spreadsheet model of infection spread between several linked heterogeneous communities is based on analytical calculations and Monte Carlo simulations. Since human behavior will likely change during the course of a pandemic, thereby altering the dynamics of the disease, we incorporate a feedback parameter into our model to reflect altered behavior. Our results indicate that while a flu pandemic could be devastating; there are coping methods that when implemented quickly and correctly can significantly mitigate the severity of a global outbreak.

Suggested Citation

  • Nigmatulina, Karima R. & Larson, Richard C., 2009. "Living with influenza: Impacts of government imposed and voluntarily selected interventions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 613-627, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:195:y:2009:i:2:p:613-627
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0377-2217(08)00200-2
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Oliver, Richard L & Berger, Philip K, 1979. "A Path Analysis of Preventive Health Care Decision Models," Journal of Consumer Research, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 113-122, Se.
    2. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Policy responses > Behavioral

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. James M. Bloodgood & Jeffrey S. Hornsby & Matthew Rutherford & Richard G. McFarland, 0. "The role of network density and betweenness centrality in diffusing new venture legitimacy: an epidemiological approach," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-28.
    2. Amankwah-Amoah, Joseph, 2020. "Note: Mayday, Mayday, Mayday! Responding to environmental shocks: Insights on global airlines’ responses to COVID-19," Transportation Research Part E: Logistics and Transportation Review, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    3. Savachkin, Alex & Uribe, Andrés, 2012. "Dynamic redistribution of mitigation resources during influenza pandemics," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 33-45.
    4. Lu, Xin & Horn, Abigail L. & Su, Jiahao & Jiang, Jiang, 2019. "A Universal Measure for Network Traceability," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 191-204.
    5. Teytelman, Anna & Larson, Richard C., 2012. "Modeling influenza progression within a continuous-attribute heterogeneous population," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 238-250.
    6. James M. Bloodgood & Jeffrey S. Hornsby & Matthew Rutherford & Richard G. McFarland, 2017. "The role of network density and betweenness centrality in diffusing new venture legitimacy: an epidemiological approach," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 525-552, June.
    7. Maciel M. Queiroz & Dmitry Ivanov & Alexandre Dolgui & Samuel Fosso Wamba, 0. "Impacts of epidemic outbreaks on supply chains: mapping a research agenda amid the COVID-19 pandemic through a structured literature review," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-38.
    8. Naveed Chehrazi & Lauren E. Cipriano & Eva A. Enns, 2019. "Dynamics of Drug Resistance: Optimal Control of an Infectious Disease," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 619-650, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Joseph H. Cook, 2013. "Principles and standards for benefit–cost analysis of public health preparedness and pandemic mitigation programs," Chapters, in: Scott O. Farrow & Richard Zerbe, Jr. (ed.), Principles and Standards for Benefit–Cost Analysis, chapter 3, pages 110-152, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Yiuman Tse & Brian C. McTier & John K. Wald, 2011. "Do Stock Markets Catch the Flu? We examine the impact of influenza on the U.S. stock market. A higher incidence of flu is associated with decreased trading, decreased volatility, and higher bid-ask sp," Working Papers 0004, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    3. Carolina Werle, 2011. "The Determinants of Preventive Health Behavior: Literature Review and Research Perspectives," Working Papers hal-00638266, HAL.
    4. Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thierfelder,Karen E. & Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thier, 2017. "Assessing the global economic and poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8133, The World Bank.
    5. repec:hrv:hksfac:35014363 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Robert H. Beach & Christine Poulos & Subhrendu K. Pattanayak, 2007. "Farm Economics of Bird Flu," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 55(4), pages 471-483, December.
    7. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    8. Ahmed, Syud Amer & Barış, Enis & Go, Delfin S. & Lofgren, Hans & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Thierfelder, Karen, 2018. "Assessing the global poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 148-160.
    9. Marcus R. Keogh‐Brown & Simon Wren‐Lewis & W. John Edmunds & Philippe Beutels & Richard D. Smith, 2010. "The possible macroeconomic impact on the UK of an influenza pandemic," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(11), pages 1345-1360, November.
    10. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    11. Ghasemi, Abdolrasoul & Boroumand, Yasaman & Shirazi, Masoud, 2020. "How do governments perform in facing COVID-19?," MPRA Paper 99791, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Apr 2020.
    12. Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    13. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
    14. George Verikios & James McCaw & Jodie McVernon & Anthony Harris, 2012. "H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 22-51.
    15. Roshen Fernando & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2021. "Macroeconomic policy adjustments due to COVID-19: Scenarios to 2025 with a focus on Asia," CAMA Working Papers 2021-17, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    16. Bekhzod EGAMBERDIEV, 2021. "Household Impact Of The Covid-19 Pandemic From A Development Economics Perspective - A Review," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 15-30, June.
    17. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Malte Rieth, 2020. "Viral Shocks to the World Economy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1861, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Romain Espinosa & Damian Tago & Nicolas Treich, 2020. "Infectious Diseases and Meat Production," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1019-1044, August.
    19. Verikios, George & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T. & Harris, Anthony H., 2015. "Improving health in an advanced economy: An economywide analysis for Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 250-261.
    20. Pedro P. Barros & Xavier Martinez-Giralt, 2002. "Preventive health care and payment systems to providers," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 507.02, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    21. R Maria del Rio-Chanona & Penny Mealy & Anton Pichler & François Lafond & J Doyne Farmer, 2020. "Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: an industry and occupation perspective," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 94-137.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:195:y:2009:i:2:p:613-627. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.