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The “inflow-effect”—Trader inflow and price efficiency

Author

Listed:
  • Kirchler, Michael
  • Bonn, Caroline
  • Huber, Jürgen
  • Razen, Michael

Abstract

We investigate the impact of cash and trader inflow on price efficiency in multi-period experimental asset markets. Implementing eight treatments with 672 subjects, we find that (i) the joint inflow of cash and traders triggers strong overvaluation and massive price run-ups (inflow-effect). Remarkably, the effect occurs in almost all of the 30 markets with joint cash and trader inflow and is very robust. The effect even prevails in markets with complete and symmetric fundamental information. We further show that (ii) in treatments with the joint inflow of cash and traders, prices crash to fundamentals towards maturity of the asset. The analysis of traders׳ beliefs reveals that (iii) despite fundamental values staying constant, beliefs about fundamentals co-move with upwardly trending prices. Finally, we report a speculative motive only among the optimists in treatments where we observe the inflow-effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchler, Michael & Bonn, Caroline & Huber, Jürgen & Razen, Michael, 2015. "The “inflow-effect”—Trader inflow and price efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-19.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:77:y:2015:i:c:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.03.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Razen & J�rgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2016. "Cash Inflow and Trading Horizon in Asset Markets," Working Papers 2016-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    2. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2016. "Cash Inflows And Bubbles In Asset Markets With Constant Fundamental Values," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1596-1606, July.
    3. repec:kap:expeco:v:21:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10683-017-9529-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Stock market participation and endogenous boom-bust dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 72-75.
    5. Fang, Dawei & Holmén, Martin & Kleinlercher, Daniel & Kirchler, Michael, 2017. "How tournament incentives affect asset markets: A comparison between winner-take-all tournaments and elimination contests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-27.
    6. Razen, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael, 2017. "Cash inflow and trading horizon in asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 359-384.
    7. Loukas Balafoutas & Simon Czermak & Marc Eulerich & Helena Fornwagner, 2017. "Incentives for dishonesty: An experimental study with internal auditors," Working Papers 2017-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
    8. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Florian Lindner & Jürgen Huber & Julia Rose & Michael Kirchler, 2018. "Bubbles and financial professionals," Working Papers 2018-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck, revised Jun 2018.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimental finance; Inflow-effect; Trader inflow; Asset market; Price efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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