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The “inflow-effect”—Trader inflow and price efficiency

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  • Kirchler, Michael
  • Bonn, Caroline
  • Huber, Jürgen
  • Razen, Michael

Abstract

We investigate the impact of cash and trader inflow on price efficiency in multi-period experimental asset markets. Implementing eight treatments with 672 subjects, we find that (i) the joint inflow of cash and traders triggers strong overvaluation and massive price run-ups (inflow-effect). Remarkably, the effect occurs in almost all of the 30 markets with joint cash and trader inflow and is very robust. The effect even prevails in markets with complete and symmetric fundamental information. We further show that (ii) in treatments with the joint inflow of cash and traders, prices crash to fundamentals towards maturity of the asset. The analysis of traders׳ beliefs reveals that (iii) despite fundamental values staying constant, beliefs about fundamentals co-move with upwardly trending prices. Finally, we report a speculative motive only among the optimists in treatments where we observe the inflow-effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Kirchler, Michael & Bonn, Caroline & Huber, Jürgen & Razen, Michael, 2015. "The “inflow-effect”—Trader inflow and price efficiency," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 1-19.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:77:y:2015:i:c:p:1-19
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2015.03.006
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Razen & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2016. "Cash Inflow and Trading Horizon in Asset Markets," Working Papers 2016-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    2. Christoph Huber & Parampreet C. Bindra & Daniel Kleinlercher, 2019. "Design-features of bubble-prone experimental asset markets with a constant FV," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 5(2), pages 197-209, December.
    3. Charles N. Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2016. "Cash Inflows And Bubbles In Asset Markets With Constant Fundamental Values," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1596-1606, July.
    4. Ciril Bosch-Rosa & Thomas Meissner & Antoni Bosch-Domènech, 2018. "Cognitive bubbles," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 21(1), pages 132-153, March.
    5. Giamattei, Marcus & Huber, Jürgen & Lambsdorff, Johann Graf & Nicklisch, Andreas & Palan, Stefan, 2020. "Who inflates the bubble? Forecasters and traders in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank, 2016. "Stock market participation and endogenous boom-bust dynamics," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 72-75.
    7. Fang, Dawei & Holmén, Martin & Kleinlercher, Daniel & Kirchler, Michael, 2017. "How tournament incentives affect asset markets: A comparison between winner-take-all tournaments and elimination contests," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 1-27.
    8. Razen, Michael & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael, 2017. "Cash inflow and trading horizon in asset markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 359-384.
    9. Loukas Balafoutas & Simon Czermak & Marc Eulerich & Helena Fornwagner, 2020. "Incentives For Dishonesty: An Experimental Study With Internal Auditors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 764-779, April.
    10. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals [Margin, short sell, and lotteries in experimental asset markets]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    11. Dieci, Roberto & Schmitt, Noemi & Westerhoff, Frank H., 2022. "Boom-bust cycles and asset market participation waves: Momentum, value, risk and herding," BERG Working Paper Series 177, Bamberg University, Bamberg Economic Research Group.
    12. Angerer, Martin & Szymczak, Wiebke, 2019. "The impact of endogenous and exogenous cash inflows in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 216-238.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimental finance; Inflow-effect; Trader inflow; Asset market; Price efficiency;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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