IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v35y2011i11p1831-1851.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the ingredients for bubble formation: Informed traders and communication

Author

Listed:
  • Oechssler, Jörg
  • Schmidt, Carsten
  • Schnedler, Wendelin

Abstract

Bubbles in asset markets have been documented in numerous experiments. Most experiments in which bubbles occur feature a declining fundamental value. This feature has been criticized for being atypical of real financial markets. Here, we experimentally study other ingredients for bubble formation that are common in such markets, namely the existence of inside information and communication among traders. We find that bubbles and mirages can occur if these additional ingredients are present. In particular, the mere possibility that some traders are better informed than others can create bubbles. Surprisingly, communication turns out to be counterproductive for bubble formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Oechssler, Jörg & Schmidt, Carsten & Schnedler, Wendelin, 2011. "On the ingredients for bubble formation: Informed traders and communication," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 1831-1851.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:1831-1851
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2011.05.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188911001199
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2011.05.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sheryl B. Ball & Charles A. Holt, 1998. "Classroom Games: Speculation and Bubbles in an Asset Market," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(1), pages 207-218, Winter.
    2. Hirota, Shinichi & Sunder, Shyam, 2007. "Price bubbles sans dividend anchors: Evidence from laboratory stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1875-1909, June.
    3. Plott, Charles R & Sunder, Shyam, 1982. "Efficiency of Experimental Security Markets with Insider Information: An Application of Rational-Expectations Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(4), pages 663-698, August.
    4. Lucy F. Ackert & Narat Charupat & Bryan K. Church & Richard Deaves, 2006. "Margin, Short Selling, And Lotteries In Experimental Asset Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 73(2), pages 419-436, October.
    5. Schnitzlein, Charles R, 1996. "Call and Continuous Trading Mechanisms under Asymmetric Information: An Experimental Investigation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 613-636, June.
    6. Lei, Vivian & Noussair, Charles N & Plott, Charles R, 2001. "Nonspeculative Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets: Lack of Common Knowledge of Rationality vs. Actual Irrationality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(4), pages 831-859, July.
    7. Zoran Ivkovi & Scott Weisbenner, 2007. "Information Diffusion Effects in Individual Investors' Common Stock Purchases: Covet Thy Neighbors' Investment Choices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(4), pages 1327-1357.
    8. Martin Dufwenberg & Tobias Lindqvist & Evan Moore, 2005. "Bubbles and Experience: An Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1731-1737, December.
    9. Martin Barner & Francesco Feri & Charles R. Plott, 2005. "On the microstructure of price determination and information aggregation with sequential and asymmetric information arrival in an experimental asset market," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 73-107, January.
    10. Bloomfield, Robert & O'Hara, Maureen & Saar, Gideon, 2005. "The "make or take" decision in an electronic market: Evidence on the evolution of liquidity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 165-199, January.
    11. Mark van Boening & Vernon L. Smith & Charissa P. Wellford, 2000. "Dividend timing and behavior in laboratory asset markets," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 16(3), pages 567-583.
    12. Hirota, Shinichi & Sunder, Shyam, 2007. "Price bubbles sans dividend anchors: Evidence from laboratory stock markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1875-1909, June.
    13. Milgrom, Paul & Stokey, Nancy, 1982. "Information, trade and common knowledge," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 17-27, February.
    14. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
    15. Noussair, C.N. & Powell, O.R., 2008. "Peaks and Valleys : Experimental Asset Markets With Non-Monotonic Fundamentals," Discussion Paper 2008-49, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    16. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
    17. Brad M. Barber & Terrance Odean, 2001. "Boys will be Boys: Gender, Overconfidence, and Common Stock Investment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(1), pages 261-292.
    18. Ernan Haruvy & Charles N. Noussair, 2006. "The Effect of Short Selling on Bubbles and Crashes in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(3), pages 1119-1157, June.
    19. Albert S. Kyle, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 56(3), pages 317-355.
    20. Harrison Hong & Jeffrey D. Kubik & Jeremy C. Stein, 2005. "Thy Neighbor's Portfolio: Word‐of‐Mouth Effects in the Holdings and Trades of Money Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(6), pages 2801-2824, December.
    21. Ernan Haruvy & Yaron Lahav & Charles N. Noussair, 2007. "Traders' Expectations in Asset Markets: Experimental Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1901-1920, December.
    22. Smith, Vernon L & Suchanek, Gerry L & Williams, Arlington W, 1988. "Bubbles, Crashes, and Endogenous Expectations in Experimental Spot Asset Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 56(5), pages 1119-1151, September.
    23. Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
    24. Kirchler, Michael, 2009. "Underreaction to fundamental information and asymmetry in mispricing between bullish and bearish markets. An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 491-506, February.
    25. Hommes, Cars & Sonnemans, Joep & Tuinstra, Jan & van de Velden, Henk, 2008. "Expectations and bubbles in asset pricing experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 116-133, July.
    26. Camerer, Colin & Weigelt, Keith, 1991. "Information Mirages in Experimental Asset Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(4), pages 463-493, October.
    27. Charles Noussair & Steven Tucker, 2006. "Futures Markets And Bubble Formation In Experimental Asset Markets," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 11(2), pages 167-184, June.
    28. Charles Noussair & Stephane Robin & Bernard Ruffieux, 2001. "Price Bubbles in Laboratory Asset Markets with Constant Fundamental Values," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 4(1), pages 87-105, June.
    29. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-1335, November.
    30. Charles R. Schnitzlein, 2002. "Price Formation and Market Quality When the Number and Presence of Insiders Is Unknown," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1077-1109.
    31. Van Boening, Mark V. & Williams, Arlington W. & LaMaster, Shawn, 1993. "Price bubbles and crashes in experimental call markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 179-185.
    32. Friedman, Daniel & Aoki, Masanao, 1992. "Inefficient Information Aggregation as a," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 251-279, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oechssler, Jörg & Schmidt, Carsten & Schnedler, Wendelin, 2009. "Asset Bubbles without Dividends - An Experiment," Working Papers 0439, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    2. Oechssler, Jörg & Schmidt, Carsten & Schnedler, Wendelin, 2007. "Asset Bubbles without Dividends - An Experiment," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 07-01, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    3. Matthias Sutter & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2012. "Bubbles and Information: An Experiment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(2), pages 384-393, February.
    4. Palan, Stefan, 2010. "Digital options and efficiency in experimental asset markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 506-522, September.
    5. Hirota, Shinichi & Huber, Juergen & Stöckl, Thomas & Sunder, Shyam, 2022. "Speculation, money supply and price indeterminacy in financial markets: An experimental study," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 200(C), pages 1275-1296.
    6. Shinichi Hirota & Juergen Huber & Thomas Stock & Shyam Sunder, 2018. "Speculation and Price Indeterminacy in Financial Markets: An Experimental Study," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2134, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    7. Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2015. "Multi-period experimental asset markets with distinct fundamental value regimes," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 18(2), pages 314-334, June.
    8. Zhengyang Bao & Andreas Leibbrandt & ple391, 2019. "Thar she resurges: The case of assets that lack positive fundamental value," Monash Economics Working Papers 12-19, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    9. Loukas Balafoutas & Simon Czermak & Marc Eulerich & Helena Fornwagner, 2020. "Incentives For Dishonesty: An Experimental Study With Internal Auditors," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(2), pages 764-779, April.
    10. Bousselmi, Wael & Sentis, Patrick & Willinger, Marc, 2019. "How do markets react to (un)expected fundamental value shocks? An experimental analysis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 90-113.
    11. Michael Razen & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler, 2016. "Cash Inflow and Trading Horizon in Asset Markets," Working Papers 2016-06, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    12. Marquardt, Philipp & Noussair, Charles N & Weber, Martin, 2019. "Rational expectations in an experimental asset market with shocks to market trends," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 116-140.
    13. Asako, Yasushi & Funaki, Yukihiko & Ueda, Kozo & Uto, Nobuyuki, 2020. "(A)symmetric information bubbles: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    14. Utz Weitzel & Christoph Huber & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner & Julia Rose & Lauren Cohen, 2020. "Bubbles and Financial Professionals [Margin, short sell, and lotteries in experimental asset markets]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 33(6), pages 2659-2696.
    15. Giovanni Giusti & Janet Hua Jiang & Yiping Xu, 2014. "Interest on Cash, Fundamental Value Process and Bubble Formation on Experimental Asset Markets," Staff Working Papers 14-18, Bank of Canada.
    16. Fischbacher, Urs & Hens, Thorsten & Zeisberger, Stefan, 2013. "The impact of monetary policy on stock market bubbles and trading behavior: Evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 2104-2122.
    17. Kirchler, Michael, 2009. "Underreaction to fundamental information and asymmetry in mispricing between bullish and bearish markets. An experimental study," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 491-506, February.
    18. Nuzzo, Simone & Morone, Andrea, 2017. "Asset markets in the lab: A literature review," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 42-50.
    19. Michael Kirchler & Jurgen Huber & Thomas Stockl, 2012. "Thar She Bursts: Reducing Confusion Reduces Bubbles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(2), pages 865-883, April.
    20. Jakob Grazzini, 2013. "Information dissemination in an experimentally based agent-based stock market," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 8(1), pages 179-209, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset markets; Bubbles; Experiment; Mirages; Dividends;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:35:y:2011:i:11:p:1831-1851. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.