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Inefficient Information Aggregation as a


  • Friedman, Daniel
  • Aoki, Masanao


This paper presents a new theory of bubbles, or discrepancies between the market clearing price and the fundamental value of an asset. In the authors' setting, Bayesian traders, oriented towards long-term gains, receive private information ("news") and also make inferences from noisy price signals. Price exhibits higher variance than fundamental value (the latter fully-aggregated expected value) especially when news is informative but infrequent. The corresponding bubbles are self-limiting but may exhibit momentum and over-shooting. A parametric example, involving the exponential/gamma conjugate families, is provided. Copyright 1992 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Board of Trustees of the Bulletin of Economic Research

Suggested Citation

  • Friedman, Daniel & Aoki, Masanao, 1992. "Inefficient Information Aggregation as a," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 251-279, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:buecrs:v:44:y:1992:i:4:p:251-79

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Caves, Douglas W & Christensen, Laurits R & Diewert, W Erwin, 1982. "The Economic Theory of Index Numbers and the Measurement of Input, Output, and Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1393-1414, November.
    2. Diewert, W. E., 1976. "Exact and superlative index numbers," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 115-145, May.
    3. Charnes, A. & Cooper, W. W. & Rhodes, E., 1978. "Measuring the efficiency of decision making units," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 2(6), pages 429-444, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bikhchandani, Sushil & Hirshleifer, David & Welch, Ivo, 1992. "A Theory of Fads, Fashion, Custom, and Cultural Change in Informational Cascades," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(5), pages 992-1026, October.
    2. Arthur, W.B. & Holland, J.H. & LeBaron, B. & Palmer, R. & Tayler, P., 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectations in an Artificial Stock Market," Working papers 9625, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
    3. Hintermann, Beat, 2010. "Allowance price drivers in the first phase of the EU ETS," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 43-56, January.

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