IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/econom/v147y2008i2p372-383.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An alternative approach to estimating demand: Neural network regression with conditional volatility for high frequency air passenger arrivals

Author

Listed:
  • Medeiros, Marcelo C.
  • McAleer, Michael
  • Slottje, Daniel
  • Ramos, Vicente
  • Rey-Maquieira, Javier

Abstract

In this paper we provide an alternative approach to analyze the demand for international tourism in the Balearic Islands, Spain, by using a neural network model that incorporates time-varying conditional volatility. We consider daily air passenger arrivals to Palma de Mallorca, Ibiza and Mahon, which are located in the islands of Mallorca, Ibiza and Menorca, respectively, as a proxy for international tourism demand for the Balearic Islands. Spain is a world leader in terms of total international tourist arrivals and receipts, and Mallorca is one of the most popular destinations in Spain. For tourism management and marketing, it is essential to forecast high frequency international tourist demand accurately. As it is important to provide sensible international tourism demand forecast intervals, it is also necessary to model their variances accurately. Moreover, time-varying variances provide useful information regarding the risks associated with variations in international tourist arrivals.

Suggested Citation

  • Medeiros, Marcelo C. & McAleer, Michael & Slottje, Daniel & Ramos, Vicente & Rey-Maquieira, Javier, 2008. "An alternative approach to estimating demand: Neural network regression with conditional volatility for high frequency air passenger arrivals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 372-383, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:147:y:2008:i:2:p:372-383
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304-4076(08)00151-6
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Medeiros, Marcelo C., 2005. "Linear models, smooth transition autoregressions, and neural networks for forecasting macroeconomic time series: A re-examination," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 755-774.
    2. Dick van Dijk & Timo Terasvirta & Philip Hans Franses, 2002. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models — A Survey Of Recent Developments," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1), pages 1-47.
    3. Mayte Suarez -Farinas & Carlos E. Pedreira & Marcelo C. Medeiros, 2004. "Local Global Neural Networks: A New Approach for Nonlinear Time Series Modeling," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, pages 1092-1107.
    4. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    5. White,Halbert, 1996. "Estimation, Inference and Specification Analysis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521574464, November.
    6. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 307-327.
    7. McAleer, Michael, 2005. "Automated Inference And Learning In Modeling Financial Volatility," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(01), pages 232-261, February.
    8. Timo Teräsvirta & Marcelo C. Medeiros & Gianluigi Rech, 2006. "Building neural network models for time series: a statistical approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 49-75.
    9. Xiaohong Chen & Xiaotong Shen, 1998. "Sieve Extremum Estimates for Weakly Dependent Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 289-314, March.
    10. Ana Bartolome & Michael McAleer & Vicente Ramos & Javier Rey-Maquieira, 2009. "Risk Management for International Tourist Arrivals: An Application to the Balearic Islands, Spain," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-665, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. McAleer, Michael & Medeiros, Marcelo C. & Slottje, Daniel, 2008. "A neural network demand system with heteroskedastic errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(2), pages 359-371, December.
    2. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Multiple-input multiple-output vs. single-input single-output neural network forecasting”," IREA Working Papers 201502, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    3. repec:eee:touman:v:45:y:2014:i:c:p:181-193 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Michael McAleer, 2015. "The Fundamental Equation in Tourism Finance," Journal of Risk and Financial Management, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(4), pages 1-6, December.
    5. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2016. "Modelling cross-dependencies between Spain’s regional tourism markets with an extension of the Gaussian process regression model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 341-357, August.
    6. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "“Regional tourism demand forecasting with machine learning models: Gaussian process regression vs. neural network models in a multiple-input multiple-output setting"," IREA Working Papers 201701, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2017.
    7. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Regional Forecasting with Support Vector Regressions: The Case of Spain”," IREA Working Papers 201507, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Jan 2015.
    8. Andrawis, Robert R. & Atiya, Amir F. & El-Shishiny, Hisham, 2011. "Combination of long term and short term forecasts, with application to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 870-886, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:147:y:2008:i:2:p:372-383. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jeconom .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.