IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v261y2026ics0165176525006305.html

When (government) work disappears: Disparate employment effects of DOGE in the short-run

Author

Listed:
  • Enriquez, Brandon

Abstract

We study the short-run employment effects of the U.S. Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). Using a difference-in-difference analysis, we find that DOGE reduced Black women’s federal employment by 25% as of August 2025. We do not find statistically significant effects on employment for other demographic groups. Between 20% and 40% of the disparate impact on Black women can be explained by baseline differences in age, education, and occupational composition. In metropolitan areas with more federal employees at baseline, Black women overall experienced greater decreases in labor force participation. Taken together, these results underscore the historic and continued importance of public sector employment for the economic advancement of Black women.

Suggested Citation

  • Enriquez, Brandon, 2026. "When (government) work disappears: Disparate employment effects of DOGE in the short-run," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 261(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:261:y:2026:i:c:s0165176525006305
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112793
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165176525006305
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econlet.2025.112793?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hellerstein, Judith K. & Kutzbach, Mark J. & Neumark, David, 2019. "Labor market networks and recovery from mass layoffs: Evidence from the Great Recession period," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    2. Jacobson, Louis S & LaLonde, Robert J & Sullivan, Daniel G, 1993. "Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 685-709, September.
    3. Louis S. Jacobson & Robert J. LaLonde & Daniel G. Sullivan, 1993. "Long-term earnings losses of high-seniority displaced workers," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 17(Nov), pages 2-20.
    4. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    5. Ashley Jardina & Peter Q. Blair & Justin Heck & Papia Debroy, 2023. "The Limits of Educational Attainment in Mitigating Occupational Segregation Between Black and White Workers," NBER Working Papers 31641, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Eric D. Gould, 2021. "Torn Apart? The Impact of Manufacturing Employment Decline on Black and White Americans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(4), pages 770-785, October.
    7. Abhay Aneja & Guo Xu, 2022. "The Costs of Employment Segregation: Evidence from the Federal Government Under Woodrow Wilson [“The Effects of the 1930s HOLC ‘Redlining’ Maps,”]," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 137(2), pages 911-958.
    8. Steven J. Davis & Till Von Wachter, 2011. "Recessions and the Costs of Job Loss," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(2 (Fall)), pages 1-72.
    9. Patrick Bayer & Kerwin Kofi Charles & Ellora Derenoncourt, 2025. "Racial Inequality in the Labor Market," Working Papers 343, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
    10. Patrick Bayer & Kerwin Kofi Charles & Ellora Derenoncourt, 2025. "Racial Inequality in the Labor Market," NBER Working Papers 33372, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Mary Kate Batistich & Timothy N Bond, 2023. "Stalled Racial Progress and Japanese Trade in the 1970s and 1980s," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(6), pages 2792-2821.
    12. Kevin Lang & Ariella Kahn-Lang Spitzer, 2020. "Race Discrimination: An Economic Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 68-89, Spring.
    13. Blau, Francine D & Kahn, Lawrence M, 1981. "Causes and Consequences of Layoffs," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 19(2), pages 270-296, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Krolikowski, Pawel & Zabek, Mike & Coate, Patrick, 2020. "Parental proximity and earnings after job displacements," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. David Autor & David Dorn & Gordon Hanson, 2021. "On the Persistence of the China Shock," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 381-476.
    3. Jose Garcia‐Louzao & Marta Silva, 2024. "Coworker networks and the labor market outcomes of displaced workers: Evidence from Portugal," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 63(3), pages 389-413, July.
    4. Martti Kaila & Emily Nix & Krista Riukula, 2021. "Disparate Impacts of Job Loss by Parental Income and Implications for Intergenerational Mobility," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 53, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. John R. Graham & Hyunseob Kim & Si Li & Jiaping Qiu, 2023. "Employee Costs of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(4), pages 2087-2137, August.
    6. Goos, Maarten & Rademakers, Emilie & Röttger, Ronja, 2021. "Routine-Biased technical change: Individual-Level evidence from a plant closure," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(7).
    7. R. Jason Faberman & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 327-357, July.
    8. Carranza, Rafael & Prieto, Joaquín & Sehnbruch, Kirsten, 2025. "Job loss and earnings inequality: Distributional effects of formal re-employment in Chile," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 1020-1036.
    9. Dickens William T. & Triest Robert K., 2012. "Potential Effects of the Great Recession on the U.S. Labor Market," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 1-41, October.
    10. Serdar Birinci, 2019. "Spousal Labor Supply Response to Job Displacement and Implications for Optimal Transfers," Working Papers 2019-020, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, revised 04 Mar 2026.
    11. J. Carter Braxton & Kyle Herkenhoff & Gordon M. Phillips, 2024. "Can the Unemployed Borrow? Implications for Public Insurance," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(9), pages 3025-3076.
    12. Ortego-Marti, Victor, 2017. "Loss of skill during unemployment and TFP differences across countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 215-235.
    13. Cauvel, Michael & Pacitti, Aaron, 2022. "Bargaining power, structural change, and the falling U.S. labor share," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 512-530.
    14. Gathmann, Christina & Huttunen, Kristiina & Jernström, Laura & Sääksvuori, Lauri & Stitzing, Robin, 2020. "In Sickness and in Health: Job Displacement and Health. Spillovers in Couples," Working Papers 133, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Saygin, Perihan & Weber, Andrea & Weynandt, Michèle, 2014. "Coworkers, Networks, and Job Search Outcomes," IZA Discussion Papers 8174, IZA Network @ LISER.
    16. Blien, Uwe & Dauth, Wolfgang & Roth, Duncan H.W., 2021. "Occupational routine intensity and the costs of job loss: evidence from mass layoffs," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    17. Audoly, Richard & De Pace, Federica & Fella, Giulio, 2022. "Job Ladder, Human Capital, and the Cost of Job Loss," CEPR Discussion Papers 17746, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    18. Lepage-Saucier, Nicolas, 2016. "The consumption response to temporary layoffs and hours losses," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 177-193.
    19. Paul Bingley & Lorenzo Cappellari & Marco Ovidi, 2023. "When it hurts the most: timing of parental job loss and a child’s education," LISER Working Paper Series 2023-12, Luxembourg Institute of Socio-Economic Research (LISER).
    20. Bohacek, Radim & Myck, Michal, 2025. "Economic Consequences of Political Persecution (updated research)," IZA Discussion Papers 18282, IZA Network @ LISER.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:261:y:2026:i:c:s0165176525006305. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.