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A cautionary note on computing conditional from unconditional correlations

Author

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  • Kaiser, Jonas
  • Krämer, Walter

Abstract

We show that some care is needed when inferring true unconditional correlations from observed conditional correlations, which is a frequent problem in empirical finance and elsewhere. We give a general formula for the relationship between the two and demonstrate its importance in the context of the bivariate t-distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Kaiser, Jonas & Krämer, Walter, 2011. "A cautionary note on computing conditional from unconditional correlations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 111(2), pages 176-179, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:111:y:2011:i:2:p:176-179
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
    2. Campbell, Rachel A.J. & Forbes, Catherine S. & Koedijk, Kees G. & Kofman, Paul, 2008. "Increasing correlations or just fat tails?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 287-309, March.
    3. Bautista, Carlos C., 2006. "The exchange rate-interest differential relationship in six East Asian countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 137-142, July.
    4. Burkhard Raunig & Johann Scharler, 2009. "Money Market Uncertainty and Retail Interest Rate Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Comparison," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10, pages 176-192, May.
    5. Brian H. Boyer & Michael S. Gibson & Mico Loretan, 1997. "Pitfalls in tests for changes in correlations," International Finance Discussion Papers 597, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Cited by:

    1. Heaney, Richard & Sriananthakumar, Sivagowry, 2012. "Time-varying correlation between stock market returns and real estate returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 583-594.

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