The link between macroeconomic performance and variability in the UK
This paper examines the link between inflation, output growth and their respective variabilities. We employ a bivariate GARCH model, which incorporates mean and level effects, to investigate in a unified empirical framework all the possible interactions between the four variables. We show that not only does variability affect performance but the latter influences the former as well. Specifically, inflation has a positive impact on both variabilities.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ruth Judson & Athanasios Orphanides, "undated".
"Inflation, Volatility, and Growth,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
1996-19, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Keith Blackburn & Alessandra Pelloni, 2005.
"Growth, cycles, and stabilization policy,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 57(2), pages 262-282, April.
- K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2002. "Growth, Cycles and Stabilisation Policy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 12, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.
- K Blackburn & A Pelloni, 2002. "Growth, Cycles and Stabilisation Policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0216, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos,Menelaos, 2001.
"Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and their Relationship with Inflation and Output Growth,"
0053, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2002. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty and their relationship with inflation and output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 293-301, May.
- Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2010.
"Negative Volatility Spillovers In The Unrestricted Eccc-Garch Model,"
Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(03), pages 838-862, June.
- Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Negative Volatility Spillovers in the Unrestricted ECCC-GARCH Model," KOF Working papers 08-189, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
- Blackburn, Keith, 1999. "Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-Run Growth?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 67-77, January.
- Alex Cukierman & Stefan Gerlach, 2003.
"The inflation bias revisited: theory and some international evidence,"
University of Manchester, vol. 71(5), pages 541-565, 09.
- Cukierman, Alex & Gerlach, Stefan, 2003. "The Inflation Bias Revisited: Theory and Some International Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 3761, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Friedman, Milton, 1977. "Nobel Lecture: Inflation and Unemployment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 451-472, June.
- Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Modeling Volatility Spillovers between the Variabilities of US Inflation and Output: the UECCC GARCH Model," Working Papers 0475, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2008.
- Fuhrer, Jeffrey C, 1997. "Inflation/Output Variance Trade-Offs and Optimal Monetary Policy," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(2), pages 214-234, May.
- Shields, KalvInder & Kevin B Grier & Olan T Henry & Nilss Olekalns, 2003.
"The Asymmetric Effects of Uncertainty on Inflation and Output Growth,"
Royal Economic Society Annual Conference 2003
187, Royal Economic Society.
- Kevin B. Grier & Ólan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(5), pages 551-565.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2002.
"Inflation, Output Growth, and Nominal and Real Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence for the G7,"
0064, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos, 2007. "Inflation, output growth, and nominal and real uncertainty: Empirical evidence for the G7," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 229-250, March.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008.
"Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related? Evidence from five European countries,"
International Economic Journal,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(4), pages 445-459.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2008. "Are economic growth and the variability of the business cycle related ? Evidence from five European countries," Discussion Paper Series 2008_17, Department of Economics, University of Macedonia, revised Dec 2008.
- Stilianos Fountas & Menelaos Karanasos, 2002. "Are Economic Growth and the Variability of the Business Cycle Related? Evidence from Five European Countries," Working Papers 0063, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2002.
- Grier, Robin & Grier, Kevin B., 2006. "On the real effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 478-500, August.
- Holland, A Steven, 1995. "Inflation and Uncertainty: Tests for Temporal Ordering," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(3), pages 827-837, August.
- Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Contrasting Models of the Effect of Inflation on Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 113-136, 02.
- Pindyck, Robert, 1989.
"Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
294, The World Bank.
- Pindyck, Robert S., 1990. "Irreversibility, uncertainty, and investment," Working papers 3137-90., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1990. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Investment," NBER Working Papers 3307, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blackburn, Keith & Pelloni, Alessandra, 2004. "On the relationship between growth and volatility," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-127, April.
- Ungar, Meyer & Zilberfarb, Ben-Zion, 1993. "Inflation and Its Unpredictability--Theory and Empirical Evidence," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 709-720, November.
- Dotsey, Michael & Sarte, Pierre Daniel, 2000. "Inflation uncertainty and growth in a cash-in-advance economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 631-655, June.
- Kevin B. Grier & Mark J. Perry, 2000. "The effects of real and nominal uncertainty on inflation and output growth: some garch-m evidence," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(1), pages 45-58.
- Elder, John, 2004. "Another Perspective on the Effects of Inflation Uncertainty," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 911-928, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:106:y:2010:i:3:p:154-157. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.