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The link between macroeconomic performance and variability in the UK

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  • Conrad, Christian
  • Karanasos, Menelaos
  • Zeng, Ning

Abstract

This paper examines the link between inflation, output growth and their respective variabilities. We employ a bivariate GARCH model, which incorporates mean and level effects, to investigate in a unified empirical framework all the possible interactions between the four variables. We show that not only does variability affect performance but the latter influences the former as well. Specifically, inflation has a positive impact on both variabilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Conrad, Christian & Karanasos, Menelaos & Zeng, Ning, 2010. "The link between macroeconomic performance and variability in the UK," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 154-157, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:106:y:2010:i:3:p:154-157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2005. "Contrasting Models of the Effect of Inflation on Growth," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(1), pages 113-136, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Karanasos, Menelaos & Paraskevopoulos, Alexandros G. & Menla Ali, Faek & Karoglou, Michail & Yfanti, Stavroula, 2014. "Modelling stock volatilities during financial crises: A time varying coefficient approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 113-128.
    2. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Working Papers 0612, University of Heidelberg, Department of Economics.
    3. Menelaos Karanasos & Alexandros Paraskevopoulos & Faek Menla Ali & Michail Karoglou & Stavroula Yfanti, 2014. "Modelling Returns and Volatilities During Financial Crises: a Time Varying Coefficient Approach," Papers 1403.7179, arXiv.org.
    4. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145888, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    5. Campos, Nauro F. & Karanasos, Menelaos G. & Tan, Bin, 2012. "Two to tangle: Financial development, political instability and economic growth in Argentina," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 290-304.
    6. Neil Kellard & Denise Osborn & Jerry Coakley & Christian Conrad & Menelaos Karanasos, 2015. "On the Transmission of Memory in Garch-in-Mean Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(5), pages 706-720, September.
    7. Glas, Alexander & Hartmann, Matthias, 2016. "Inflation uncertainty, disagreement and monetary policy: Evidence from the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PB), pages 215-228.
    8. Menelaos Karanasos & Ning Zeng, 2013. "Conditional heteroskedasticity in macroeconomics data: UK inflation, output growth and their uncertainties," Chapters,in: Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 12, pages 266-288 Edward Elgar Publishing.

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