Current trends in the analysis of Canadian productivity growth
For more than a decade, debates over the impact of new information technologies on trend productivity growth rates have played a key role in the formulation of monetary policy in many countries, including the United States and Canada. However, the question of whether the trend growth rate of aggregate productivity has changed significantly is rarely examined formally. This paper examines the latest aggregate labour productivity data for Canada using a new testing approach specifically designed to detect recent changes in trends. In addition to showing the strength of the evidence for changes in long-run trends, it considers the effect that data revision and changing sample period has had on inference about structural changes. In an appendix, it investigates how large such changes must be before they can be detected and to what degree detection tends to lag the structural change. Evidence of a decline in the trend rate of labour productivity growth in Canada since 1990 is mixed. In particular, conclusions vary considerably from year to year as data are revised and as the accumulation of observations after purported breaks changes initial perceptions. The instability of test results suggest that policymakers need to use extreme caution in interpreting claims of changes in labour productivity trends and highlight the uncertainty that they face.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 22 (2011)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrews, Donald W K, 1993.
"Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point,"
Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-56, July.
- Donald W.K. Andrews, 1990. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 943, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Hansen, Bruce E, 1997.
"Approximate Asymptotic P Values for Structural-Change Tests,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 15(1), pages 60-67, January.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Hansen's examples of Andrews-Ploberger test," Statistical Software Components RTZ00087, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1995. "Approximate Asymptotic P-Values for Structural Change Tests," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 297., Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Gordon, 1998. "Foundations of the Goldilocks Economy: Supply Shocks and the Time-Varying NAIRU," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 29(2), pages 297-346.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006.
"Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the US Growth Resurgence,"
in: The New Economy and Beyond, chapter 2
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2002. "Projecting productivity growth: lessons from the U.S. growth resurgence," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q3, pages 1-13.
- Ho, Mun & Jorgenson, Dale & Stiroh, Kevin, 2002. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence," Discussion Papers dp-02-42, Resources For the Future.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Cahiers de recherche
9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003.
"A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?,"
BIS Papers chapters,
in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59
Bank for International Settlements.
- Claudio E. V. Borio & Wiliam English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 127, Bank for International Settlements.
- D. W. K. Andrews, 2003.
"End-of-Sample Instability Tests,"
Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1661-1694, November.
- Maury, P-M. & Pluyaud, B., 2004. "The Breaks in per Capita Productivity Trends in a Number of Industrial Countries," Working papers 111, Banque de France.
- James A. Kahn & Robert W. Rich, 2003.
"Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity,"
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
- Kahn, James A. & Rich, Robert W., 2007. "Tracking the new economy: Using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 1670-1701, September.
- James A. Kahn & Robert Rich, 2003. "Tracking the new economy: using growth theory to detect changes in trend productivity," Staff Reports 159, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Martin N. Baily & Robert Lawrence, 2001.
"Do We Have A New E-Conomy?,"
NBER Working Papers
8243, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benoît Robidoux & Bing-Sun Wong, 2003. "Has Trend Productivity Growth Increased in Canada?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 6, pages 47-55, Spring.
- Andrew J. Filardo, 1995. "Has the productivity trend steepened in the 1990s?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 41-59.
- Allan Crawford, 2002. "Trends in Productivity Growth in Canada," Bank of Canada Review, Bank of Canada, vol. 2002(Spring), pages 19-32.
- Andrew Sharpe, 2004. "Recent Productivity Developments in Canada and the United States: Productivity Growth Deceleration versus Acceleration," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 16-26, Spring.
- Georg Erber & Ulrich Fritsche, 2005. "Estimating and Forecasting Aggregate Productivity Growth Trends in the US and Germany," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 471, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994.
"Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
- Tom Doan, . "APGRADIENTTEST: RATS procedure to perform Andrews-Ploberger Structural Break Test for GARCH/Maximum Likelihood," Statistical Software Components RTS00007, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, . "REGHBREAK: RATS procedure to perform structural break test with bootstrapped p-values," Statistical Software Components RTS00176, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Donald W.K. Andrews & Werner Ploberger, 1992. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only Under the Alternative," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1015, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Tom Doan, . "APBREAKTEST: RATS procedure to implement Andrews-Ploberger Structural Break Test," Statistical Software Components RTS00006, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Robert J. Gordon, 2003. "Exploding Productivity Growth: Context, Causes, and Implications," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 207-298.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:22:y:2011:i:1:p:5-25. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.