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A middle income trap in a small open economy: Modeling the Argentinean case

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  • Dabús, Carlos
  • Tohmé, Fernando
  • Caraballo, M. Ángeles

Abstract

This paper presents a model of the conditions that may lead a small open economy towards a middle income trap. This situation has shown to be pervasive in Latin America. As Argentina is a salient instance of this phenomenon, we develop a stylized model of its economy at the first decades of the XXth century. It consists of a general equilibrium model of an open emerging economy, which is a price-taking primary goods exporter. A growth process is triggered by an increase of commodity prices, due to an upward jump of the world demand of these goods. The economy goes through several phases of growth, starting from a subsistence stage. Once decreasing returns set in, the economy reaches a steady state. Only a sustained high demand of its export products allows the economy to thrive. Otherwise, the economy gets entrapped in a middle income level.

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  • Dabús, Carlos & Tohmé, Fernando & Caraballo, M. Ángeles, 2016. "A middle income trap in a small open economy: Modeling the Argentinean case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 436-444.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:53:y:2016:i:c:p:436-444
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2015.10.042
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    1. Mehmet Hanefi Topal, 2020. "The Middle Income Trap: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Bogazici Journal, Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, Bogazici University, Department of Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 51-75.
    2. Carlos Bianchi & Fernando Isabella & Santiago Picasso, 2023. "Growth slowdowns at middle income levels: Identifying mechanisms of external constraints," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(2), pages 288-305, May.
    3. Kato, Yuta, 2025. "Escaping the Middle-income Trap: The Role of Strategic Public Investment and Industrial Structure Change," MPRA Paper 124758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Glawe, Linda & Wagner, Helmut, 2017. "A stylized model of China’s growth since 1978," CEAMeS Discussion Paper Series 5/2017, University of Hagen, Center for East Asia Macro-economic Studies (CEAMeS), revised 2017.

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