IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v154y2026ics026499932500358x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Curse or cure: China’s growing food demand and its impact on African agricultural exports and value-added

Author

Listed:
  • Chen, Moyu
  • Jia, Siying
  • Sheng, Yu

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of China’s growing food demand on African agricultural exports, emphasizing value-added and implications for development. Using a gravity model with panel data from 41 African countries’ exports to China (1992–2021), we analyze effects on total exports, value-added, and unit value-added through decomposition analysis. Results indicate that China’s demand significantly increases African exports, enhancing global value chain integration, yet minimally boosts value-added. A 1% increase in China’s food consumption (from 3.9 trillion kcal/day or approximately 8.85 million tonne) increases exports by US$ 2.79 million but reduces per unit value-added in exports from 19.2% to 15.6%, a loss of US$ 0.50 million. Limited production capacity, not low-value export reliance, constrains industry upgrading. Leveraging international cooperation and domestic policy reform to advance technology and capacity is critical for African nations to unlock sustainable export growth and resilient agricultural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Moyu & Jia, Siying & Sheng, Yu, 2026. "Curse or cure: China’s growing food demand and its impact on African agricultural exports and value-added," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:154:y:2026:i:c:s026499932500358x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107363
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S026499932500358X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107363?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:154:y:2026:i:c:s026499932500358x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.