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Curse or cure: China’s growing food demand and its impact on African agricultural exports and value-added

Author

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  • Chen, Moyu
  • Jia, Siying
  • Sheng, Yu

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of China’s growing food demand on African agricultural exports, emphasizing value-added and implications for development. Using a gravity model with panel data from 41 African countries’ exports to China (1992–2021), we analyze effects on total exports, value-added, and unit value-added through decomposition analysis. Results indicate that China’s demand significantly increases African exports, enhancing global value chain integration, yet minimally boosts value-added. A 1% increase in China’s food consumption (from 3.9 trillion kcal/day or approximately 8.85 million tonne) increases exports by US$ 2.79 million but reduces per unit value-added in exports from 19.2% to 15.6%, a loss of US$ 0.50 million. Limited production capacity, not low-value export reliance, constrains industry upgrading. Leveraging international cooperation and domestic policy reform to advance technology and capacity is critical for African nations to unlock sustainable export growth and resilient agricultural development.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Moyu & Jia, Siying & Sheng, Yu, 2026. "Curse or cure: China’s growing food demand and its impact on African agricultural exports and value-added," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:154:y:2026:i:c:s026499932500358x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107363
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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