How does AI affect urban carbon emissions? Quasi-experimental evidence from China's AI innovation and development pilot zones

Artificial intelligence (AI) is gradually becoming an important engine for empowering urban economies, driving the low-carbon growth of cities. To promote the deep integration of AI with economic and social expansion, China has proposed building national new-generation AI innovation and development pilot zones (AIPZ) in cities. However, the impact of AIPZ construction on low-carbon development remains unclear. Using panel data from 276 cities in China from 2015 to 2022, we employed a difference-in-differences method to assess the impact of the AIPZ policy on urban carbon emissions (UCE). First, as verified by multiple robustness tests, the AIPZ policy effectively reduced UCE, with an average reduction of 3.4 %. Second, the policy helped lower urban pollutant emissions and achieved a synergistic effect of carbon and pollution reduction. Third, according to the mechanism analysis, the AIPZ policy promoted carbon reduction by optimizing the government spending structure and improving consumers’ online lifestyles. Additionally, the economic effect analysis revealed that the AIPZ policy reduced UCE by optimizing industrial structure, enhancing energy efficiency, and promoting technological innovation. Therefore, this study verifies the positive role of AI in reducing UCE and provides policy support for leveraging AI to promote green and low-carbon urban development.