Impacts of online shopping on travel demand: a systematic review

The rise of e-commerce has led to substantial changes in personal travel and activities. We systematically reviewed empirical studies on the relationship between online shopping and personal travel behaviour. We synthesised and assessed the evidence for four types of effects on various travel outcomes, including trip frequency, travel distance, trip chaining, mode choice, and time use. In 42 articles reviewed, we found more evidence that online shopping substitutes for shopping travel. Most studies to date have focused on trip frequency but neglected other travel outcomes. Very few studies have considered the modification effect, which has significant implications for travel demand management. In sum, previous studies have not reached a consensus on the dominant effect of online shopping, in part due to the diversity in variable measurements, types of goods, study areas, and analytic methods. A limitation of previous studies is the reliance on cross-sectional surveys, which hinders the distinction between short- and long-term behaviours and between modification, complementarity, and substitution effects. Our study provides an agenda for future research on this topic and discusses policy implications related to land use, behavioural changes, data collection, and modelling for practitioners who wish to incorporate e-commerce in planning for sustainable urban systems.