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The credit card and small business lending channels of monetary policy

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  • Littlejohn, Maximillian

Abstract

This paper analyzes the lending channel of monetary policy exclusively through credit card and small business bank loans. A time-varying parameter vector autoregression is estimated, providing evidence that the direction and strength in which credit card and small business loans respond to monetary policy are time-dependent. To investigate these findings analytically, I develop a general equilibrium model of consumer credit card and small business lending. Households and firms use a combination of monetary assets and bank loans to finance random consumption and investment opportunities. In accordance with conventional theory, when borrowers are sufficiently constrained, a monetary tightening reduces lending through the balance sheet subchannel of monetary policy. However, when borrowers are less constrained, a monetary tightening raises unsecured debt limits through a second subchannel and lending expands. This second subchannel, operating solely through unsecured credit, offers a new theory to justify an expansionary loan response to tightened monetary policy that the traditional lending channel literature has yet to address.

Suggested Citation

  • Littlejohn, Maximillian, 2025. "The credit card and small business lending channels of monetary policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:171:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000119
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105045
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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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