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Using household rosters from survey data to estimate all-cause excess death rates during the COVID pandemic in India

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  • Malani, Anup
  • Ramachandran, Sabareesh

Abstract

Official statistics on deaths from COVID undercount deaths due to lack of testing. In developed countries, death registries are used to estimate excess deaths due to COVID during the pandemic. However, few developing countries had complete death registries even before the pandemic and the pandemic further stressed administrative capacities. As a substitute, we estimate all-cause excess deaths in India using the member rosters of a large, representative household panel survey. We estimate roughly 4.2 million excess deaths during the pandemic through February 2022. We cannot demonstrate causality between COVID and deaths, but the timing and age structure of deaths is consistent with the COVID pandemic and excess deaths are positively correlated with reported infections. Finally, we find that excess deaths were higher among higher-income persons and were negatively associated with mobility. The methods in this paper can be used in countries with a household panel to measure health-related demographic indicators.

Suggested Citation

  • Malani, Anup & Ramachandran, Sabareesh, 2022. "Using household rosters from survey data to estimate all-cause excess death rates during the COVID pandemic in India," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:159:y:2022:i:c:s0304387822001304
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2022.102988
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    1. Joseph G. Altonji & Todd E. Elder & Christopher R. Taber, 2005. "Selection on Observed and Unobserved Variables: Assessing the Effectiveness of Catholic Schools," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 151-184, February.
    2. Manfred S Green & Dorit Nitzan & Naama Schwartz & Yaron Niv & Victoria Peer, 2021. "Sex differences in the case-fatality rates for COVID-19—A comparison of the age-related differences and consistency over seven countries," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(4), pages 1-13, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Beyer, Robert C.M. & Jain, Tarun & Sinha, Sonalika, 2023. "Lights out? COVID-19 containment policies and economic activity," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    2. Nitya Mittal & Janina Isabel Steinert & Sebastian Vollmer, 2023. "COVID-19 pandemic, losses of livelihoods and uneven recovery in Pune, India," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    SARS-Cov-2; COVID; Pandemic; India; Mortality rate; Excess deaths; Household survey;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I10 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - General
    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General

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