Material Hardship, Labor Market Characteristics and Substantiated Child Maltreatment: A Bayesian Spatiotemporal Analysis

Child maltreatment is a critical public health problem whose structural underpinnings underscore the need to move prevention efforts from individual-level risk factors to social policy. Despite previous studies exploring the evolution of child maltreatment risk in socially vulnerable contexts, little is known about how neighborhood level material deprivation and job market characteristics, beyond the employment context, impact substantiated maltreatment risk. The present analysis integrates multiple streams of data to explore the complexity of child maltreatment in the most populous county in New Mexico as a case-study. A geospatial model was used to produce posterior risk estimates and exceedance probabilities of substantiated child maltreatment derived from administrative records controlling for financial strength, economic inequality and hardship, educational attainment, housing and food insecurity and labor market characteristics. Findings showed that over the nine-year study period, the average relative risk of child maltreatment increased substantially, however, there was substantial regional and temporal heterogeneity. More specifically, substantiated child maltreatment risk became more highly concentrated into the most deprived 20% of neighborhoods over time. The results showed a very strong area deprivation effect such that: (1) the risk of maltreatment in the most deprived 20% of neighborhoods on financial strength was 130.78% higher compared to the least deprived 20% of neighborhoods; and (2) maltreatment rates in the bottom 20% of neighborhoods on economic inequality and hardship were 40.52% higher compared to the least deprived 20% of neighborhoods. Finally, substantiated child maltreatment was significantly associated with multiple labor market characteristics including commuting times to work, origin–destination job flows, and mode of transportation to work. From a policy perspective, the results of this study support structural interventions aimed at reducing neighborhood-level material hardship and labor market disadvantage as avenues to support parents so that children and families can thrive.