IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v148y2021ics0960077921003933.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modified SIRD Model for COVID-19 Spread Prediction for Northern and Southern States of India

Author

Listed:
  • Shringi, Sakshi
  • Sharma, Harish
  • Rathie, Pushpa Narayan
  • Bansal, Jagdish Chand
  • Nagar, Atulya

Abstract

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SAR-CoV-2) is the strain of coronavirus that causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19), the respiratory illness that resulted in COVID-19 pandemic in early December 2019. Due to lack of knowledge of the epidemiological cycle and absence of any type of vaccine or medications, the Government issued various non-pharmacological measures to end the COVID-19 pandemic. Several researchers applied the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Deceased (SIRD) compartmental epidemiology process model to identifying the effect of different governments intervention methods enforced to mollify the spread of COVID-19 epidemic. In this paper, we aim to provide a modified SIRD model for COVID-19 spread prediction. We have analyzed the data of the Northern and Southern states of India from January 30, 2020, to October 24, 2020 using the proposed SIRD model and existing SIRD model. We have made the predictions with reasonable assumptions based on real data, considering that the precise course of an epidemic is highly dependent on how and when quarantine, isolation, and precautionary measures were imposed. The proposed method gives better approximation values of new cases, R0 (Reproductive Number), daily deaths, daily infectious, transmission rate, and recovered individuals.Through the analysis of the reported results, the proposed SIRD model can be an effective method for investigating the effect of government interventions on COVID-19 associated transmission and mortality rate at the time of epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Shringi, Sakshi & Sharma, Harish & Rathie, Pushpa Narayan & Bansal, Jagdish Chand & Nagar, Atulya, 2021. "Modified SIRD Model for COVID-19 Spread Prediction for Northern and Southern States of India," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:148:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921003933
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111039
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077921003933
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2021.111039?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jajarmi, Amin & Yusuf, Abdullahi & Baleanu, Dumitru & Inc, Mustafa, 2020. "A new fractional HRSV model and its optimal control: A non-singular operator approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 547(C).
    2. Qureshi, Sania & Atangana, Abdon, 2020. "Fractal-fractional differentiation for the modeling and mathematical analysis of nonlinear diarrhea transmission dynamics under the use of real data," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    3. Din, Anwarud & Khan, Amir & Baleanu, Dumitru, 2020. "Stationary distribution and extinction of stochastic coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    4. Yun Qiu & Xi Chen & Wei Shi, 2020. "Impacts of social and economic factors on the transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1127-1172, October.
    5. Titan Alon & Matthias Doepke & Jane Olmstead-Rumsey & Michèle Tertilt, 2020. "The Impact of COVID-19 on Gender Equality," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2020_163, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bong Gu Kang & Hee-Mun Park & Mi Jang & Kyung-Min Seo, 2021. "Hybrid Model-Based Simulation Analysis on the Effects of Social Distancing Policy of the COVID-19 Epidemic," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(21), pages 1-17, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singh, Harendra, 2021. "Analysis of drug treatment of the fractional HIV infection model of CD4+ T-cells," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Ogunmiloro, Oluwatayo Michael, 2021. "Mathematical analysis and approximate solution of a fractional order caputo fascioliasis disease model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    3. Nicholas W. Papageorge & Matthew V. Zahn & Michèle Belot & Eline Broek-Altenburg & Syngjoo Choi & Julian C. Jamison & Egon Tripodi, 2021. "Socio-demographic factors associated with self-protecting behavior during the Covid-19 pandemic," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 691-738, April.
    4. Eiji Yamamura & Yoshiro Tsustsui, 2021. "School closures and mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic in Japan," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1261-1298, October.
    5. Ainaa, Carmen & Brunetti, Irene & Mussida, Chiara & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2021. "Who lost the most? Distributive effects of COVID-19 pandemic," GLO Discussion Paper Series 829, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    6. Babaei, A. & Jafari, H. & Banihashemi, S. & Ahmadi, M., 2021. "Mathematical analysis of a stochastic model for spread of Coronavirus," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    7. YAMAMURA, Eiji & Tsutsui, Yoshiro, 2020. "Impact of closing schools on mental health during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence using panel data from Japan," MPRA Paper 105023, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Daniel Graeber & Alexander S. Kritikos & Johannes Seebauer, 2021. "COVID-19: a crisis of the female self-employed," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(4), pages 1141-1187, October.
    9. Bonacini, Luca & Gallo, Giovanni & Scicchitano, Sergio, 2020. "All that glitters is not gold. Effects of working from home on income inequality at the time of COVID-19," GLO Discussion Paper Series 541, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    10. Luca Bonacini & Giovanni Gallo & Sergio Scicchitano, 2021. "Working from home and income inequality: risks of a ‘new normal’ with COVID-19," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 34(1), pages 303-360, January.
    11. Yusuf, Abdullahi & Tasiu Mustapha, Umar & Abdulkadir Sulaiman, Tukur & Hincal, Evren & Bayram, Mustafa, 2021. "Modeling the effect of horizontal and vertical transmissions of HIV infection with Caputo fractional derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    12. Toufique, M. M. K., 2020. "Why do some countries have more COVID-19 cases than others? Evidence from 70 most affected countries sans China," EconStor Preprints 222456, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    13. Gopi Shah Goda & Emilie Jackson & Lauren Hersch Nicholas & Sarah See Stith, 2023. "The impact of Covid-19 on older workers’ employment and Social Security spillovers," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 813-846, April.
    14. Marco Colagrossi & Claudio Deiana & Andrea Geraci & Ludovica Giua, 2022. "Hang up on stereotypes: Domestic violence and an anti‐abuse helpline campaign," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(4), pages 585-611, October.
    15. Zai-Yin He & Abderrahmane Abbes & Hadi Jahanshahi & Naif D. Alotaibi & Ye Wang, 2022. "Fractional-Order Discrete-Time SIR Epidemic Model with Vaccination: Chaos and Complexity," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, January.
    16. Jacek Rothert, 2020. "Optimal federal redistribution during the uncoordinated response to a pandemic," Departmental Working Papers 64, United States Naval Academy Department of Economics.
    17. Brodeur, Abel & Clark, Andrew E. & Fleche, Sarah & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2021. "COVID-19, lockdowns and well-being: Evidence from Google Trends," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    18. Mudassar Arsalan & Omar Mubin & Fady Alnajjar & Belal Alsinglawi, 2020. "COVID-19 Global Risk: Expectation vs. Reality," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(15), pages 1-10, August.
    19. Louis-Philippe Beland & Abel Brodeur & Taylor Wright, 2020. "COVID-19, Stay-at-Home Orders and Employment: Evidence from CPS Data," Carleton Economic Papers 20-04, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 19 May 2020.
    20. Akgül, Ali & Partohaghighi, Mohammad, 2022. "New fractional modelling and control analysis of the circumscribed self-excited spherical strange attractor," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:148:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921003933. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.