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Prospect theory in M&A: Do historical purchase prices affect merger offer premiums and announcement returns?

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  • Lauterbach, Beni
  • Mugerman, Yevgeny
  • Shemesh, Joshua

Abstract

Prospect Theory suggests that when the pre-offer market price is below the historical purchase price, target shareholders may be reluctant to accept a merger offer, because it requires realizing nominal losses. In a sample of all U.S. public firm merger offers in 1990–2019, we find that the acquirer partially compensates target shareholders, including retail investors, for their losses via a higher offer premium. Consistent with Prospect Theory, the marginal compensation decreases with loss size and is higher in cash-only deals. We also show that the extra premium paid hurts (boosts) acquirer (target) shareholders' wealth.

Suggested Citation

  • Lauterbach, Beni & Mugerman, Yevgeny & Shemesh, Joshua, 2024. "Prospect theory in M&A: Do historical purchase prices affect merger offer premiums and announcement returns?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:42:y:2024:i:c:s2214635024000467
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2024.100931
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mergers and acquisitions; reference prices; anchoring; retail investors; Prospect Theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G34 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Mergers; Acquisitions; Restructuring; Corporate Governance
    • G41 - Financial Economics - - Behavioral Finance - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making in Financial Markets

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